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June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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Transitioned into a warmer/wetter pattern overall. First shot at 90s today and tomorrow depending on clouds.  next shot Tue - Thu (6/9 - 6/11) ahead of the remnants of Cristobal. Could be sharp cut off near city/coast for onshore flow.  Beyond there  , 6/12 - 6/15 ULL  north of the region looks to keep things potentially wet and near normal by way of higher mins with heights poised to rise mid month.  Dont believe there is any likelihood of locking in any sustained cool or warm.  Overall appears to be near or above normal and much wetter than the last 7 weeks.

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3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Transitioned into a warmer/wetter pattern overall. First shot at 90s today and tomorrow depending on clouds.  next shot Tue - Thu (6/9 - 6/11) ahead of the remnants of Cristobal. Could be sharp cut off near city/coast for onshore flow.  Beyond there  , 6/12 - 6/15 ULL  north of the region looks to keep things potentially wet and near normal by way of higher mins with heights poised to rise mid month.  Dont believe there is any likelihood of locking in any sustained cool or warm.  Overall appears to be near or above normal and much wetter than the last 7 weeks.

That would be excellent. Soil moisture really takes a hit this time of year with out frequent rain due to peak insulation. 

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4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Agreed. I wonder if it has something to do with the orientation of the Great Lakes. The only one I have experienced on LI, the infamous sept 98 one came straight from the west, counter to the normal NW MCs source 

June derecho climatology is to our south like in 2012. But the tracks shift more to the north as the season goes on. 


https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0256.1

2C2E0EA0-0A43-4627-90A6-B9BF7DF5E385.thumb.jpeg.234078fb01690a47e6eeaf578e462b7a.jpeg

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35 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

So what are the chances that stays with that orientation and it stays dry up here? 

The 1st cluster moves SW to NE, just not sure how far N, but I would not be shocked if that ticked NE. 

day1otlk_1630.gif

 

Then the 2nd line weaker could fire up on the back side.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, dWave said:

Partly cloudy 85. Would of been an easy 90 but too many clouds. Mostly cloudy for large portions of the day. 

Every 80+ degree day since the beginning of May has had either a T or measurable rain. Plenty of clouds and moisture accompanying our warm ups. Local sea breezes and onshore flow has also been a factor in reducing our high temperature potential.

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Every 80+ degree day since the beginning of May has had either a T or measurable rain. Plenty of clouds and moisture accompanying our warm ups. Local sea breezes and onshore flow has also been a factor in reducing our high temperature potential.

what ever it takes to keep the heat away...

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Every 80+ degree day since the beginning of May has had either a T or measurable rain. Plenty of clouds and moisture accompanying our warm ups. Local sea breezes and onshore flow has also been a factor in reducing our high temperature potential.

LGA and EWR may have a shot at 90. Currently LGA 88, EWR 87. LGA I noticed has a tendency to achieve some late day high temps so its possible.

I already knew the Park's temp would be especially muted today with last nights downpour.

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Temperatures soared into the middle and even upper 80s across the region today. Overnight and tomorrow, it will be mainly cloudy and warm with periodic showers and thundershowers.

No excessive heat is likely through at least the first two weeks of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, there are emerging hints of a long-range pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions perhaps beginning in the third or fourth week of June.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around May 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into the end of May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has continued to increase.

The SOI was -33.39 today. That was the lowest figure since November 5, 2019 when the SOI was -34.49.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.855.

On June 3, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.778 (RMM). The June 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.841.

The MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

With the SOI plunging below -30.00, that could be a catalyst that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period late this month. A similar development occurred last June, as well. Afterward, July and August featured warm anomalies in the East.

 

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