June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Dan76]

Just now, Rjay said:

That line looks like it will miss most of the subforum to the south unless it starts extending north.  There's also showers in northcentral PA wanting to ruin our fun. 

Shocking I say!

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

That line looks like it will miss most of the subforum to the south unless it starts extending north.  There's also showers in northcentral PA wanting to ruin our fun. 

You can see how far off the 06z NAM is

[NJwx85]

10 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Shocking I say!

MCS's tend to dive Southeastward so even Central NJ might be too far North if the things don't develop into at least Western NY.

[hudsonvalley21]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

You can see how far off the 06z NAM is

 

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

MCS's tend to dive Southeastward so even Central NJ might be too far North if the things don't develop into at least Western NY.

Looks to be going further south.

 

[Brian5671]

New NAM coming out shortly so we should have the answer.  Question is whether there's another batch further NW out of range of our radar

-

edit-nam much weaker with rains and definitely south.

[NJwx85]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

New NAM coming out shortly so we should have the answer.  Question is whether there's another batch further NW out of range of our radar

-

edit-nam much weaker with rains and definitely south.

It's a fast moving squall line so less rain makes sense. 

Looks like the EML has made it up into at least the Southern tier of NY and the Western Hudson Valley so that's a good sign. The storms should ride the Northern periphery of the instability axis.

[Brian5671]

3K nam does have a new batch later for northern areas

[qg_omega]

oLooks to pass south of the area, have to wait for possible new development over the finger lakes

[bluewave]

The HRRR has a pretty good initialization of the storms in CPA. It races the storms ESE with the northern edge to around NYC.

 

[dmillz25]

 

[CIK62]

The nearest lightning to us now is in State College, 200 miles east.          Would take till 6pm to get here and could be weakening by then.          Some pop up clouds might give a spritz as early as Noon.

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The nearest lightning to us now is in State College, 200 miles east.          Would take till 6pm to get here and could be weakening by then.          Some pop up clouds might give a spritz as early as Noon.

That line will be here by 1 or 2pm 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The nearest lightning to us now is in State College, 200 miles east.          Would take till 6pm to get here and could be weakening by then.          Some pop up clouds might give a spritz as early as Noon.

Given the ESE movement of that batch NYC won't see much from it-have to hope something else develops later to the north

[psv88]

Drought continues for LI

[Allsnow]

26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Given the ESE movement of that batch NYC won't see much from it-have to hope something else develops later to the north

Might be hard because of the cloud debris we will get from it. Next complex over Chicago currently 

[Stormlover74]

29 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Drought continues for LI

Not yet

 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Not yet

 

Stay safe Psv 

[Cfa]

41 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Drought continues for LI

Enhanced Risk always is the kiss of death out here.

[Gravity Wave]

Back in the old days of the 3-tier severe system our best days always seemed to come with slight risks while moderate risks usually disappointed. So far I'm struggling to remember an enhanced day that lived up to its billing around here either.

[SnoSki14]

It looks pretty expansive, I don't think it'll miss us. 

[crossbowftw3]

Yeah for you guys closer to NYC you will probably get hit by this. Up here north of 84 we will miss this to the north. Could count on possible redevelopment but without much sun we haven't been able to destabilize nearly as much. I expect 1630 day 1 to re-orient probabilities and probably remove enhanced risk as well.

 

BGM take:

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1025 AM Update...
SPC issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242 for a good portion of
PA, and just clipping Luzerne county until 3 PM. Organized
convection was plowing through central PA as of this writing. It
appears to be mainly elevated as analyses show CIN and low level
stability, while mid level lapse rate exceed 7C/km. Latest CAMS
guidance appears to be struggling with this earlier than
expected feature. Best surface based instability and shear will
be focusing mostly south of the BGM forecast area for the rest
of today and the current line should propagate south of our
area. There is indication that an approaching wave could
trigger additional thunderstorm development over western NY,
then sweep it through CNY/NEPA during the mid-late afternoon,
but it`s more probable this will contain sub-severe, garden
variety showers and thunderstorms. Plans now are to monitor the
Watch conditions for the next couple hours and likely cancel it
by 1 PM. Remainder of forecast fairly routine with some
temperature updates due to cloud cover and forecast rainfall.

[NJwx85]

The Northern part of the line is probably going to clip us but the severe portion is from Allentown and points South. We'll see if anything develops further Northeast. The best mid-level lapse rates are right a long the coast.

[Cfa]

29 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Not yet

 

Idk, I’d say we’re already there, soil is bone dry several inches down and the grass isn’t pretty. 

[NJwx85]

The latest run of the HRRR has two broken lines swinging through during the early part of the evening. Development occurs over Upstate NY after the current MCS moves out.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

That almost looks derecho like for southern NJ. I’m sure there will be plenty of wind damage down there. We should at least get a gust front up to the city 

[Cfa]

 

[uncle W]

radar looks ominous especially areas south of NYC...The city could get clipped...I had 0.80" last night and I could pick up some more later...

[winterwx21]

37 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It looks pretty expansive, I don't think it'll miss us. 

I'd feel much better if I was in southern Middlesex County rather than the extreme northern part. It looks to me as if the northern part of the severe line will miss us slightly to the south, and we'll just be in that area of light-moderate rain that's to the north of the line and pick up maybe a tenth of an inch of rain. And last night I got only a quarter of an inch with the heavy stuff just missing me by a few miles. Was hoping for a good soaking, so this bad luck is frustrating.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

I'd feel much better if I was in southern Middlesex County rather than the extreme northern part. It looks to me as if the northern part of the severe line will miss us slightly to the south, and we'll just be in that area of light-moderate rain that's to the north of the line and pick up maybe a tenth of an inch of rain. And last night I got only a quarter of an inch with the heavy stuff just missing me by a few miles. Was hoping for a good soaking, so this bad luck is frustrating.

Yeah mercer and areas south will get blasted

[PB-99]