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June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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The most impressive heat records continue to our north.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
504 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2020

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

TODAY, JUNE 26, 2020, MARKED THE 11TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH A HIGH
OF 80 DEGREES (F) OR WARMER IN CARIBOU, MAINE. THIS BREAKS THE 
RECORD FOR THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 80 DEGREES OR 
WARMER IN CARIBOU. THE OLD RECORD OF 10 DAYS WAS FROM AUGUST 
14-23, 2015. WEATHER RECORDS IN CARIBOU DATE BACK TO 1939.


THERE HAVE BEEN A TOTAL OF 12 DAYS SO FAR THIS JUNE WITH A HIGH 
OF 80F OR WARMER. THIS IS THE MOST 80 DEGREE DAYS IN THE MONTH OF 
JUNE SINCE 2005 WHEN THERE WERE 12. THE LONG TERM AVERAGE 
(1981-2010 AVERAGES) IS SIX 80+ DAYS DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE. THE
ALL-TIME RECORD IS 13, WHICH WAS SET IN 1976.

THERE HAVE BEEN 4 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH A HIGH OF 90F OR WARMER,
WHICH IS ONE SHY OF THE RECORD OF 5, SET IN 1949. CARIBOU AVERAGES
JUST TWO 90 DEGREE DAYS EACH SUMMER. THE ALL-TIME RECORD IS 11,
SET DURING THE SUMMER OF 1944.  

 

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Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler across the region under considerable cloudiness with occasional showers and thundershowers.

A predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change during July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region.

The CFSv2, which is now moving into its skillful range for its monthly forecasts, and the EPS weeklies favor a warmer than normal July across the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The SOI was -13.64 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.271.

On June 25, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.693 (RMM). The June 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.802.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn.

This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7°.

 

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8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't see anything beyond what we've been seeing so far. Probably just upper 80s to low 90s. 

Nothing crazy for July. 2010-2011 ain't walking through that door. 

The strongest heat will likely be to our north this season.

If we are talking 100s there is nothing showing that currently.  Although in 2011 the 100s waited till later that month.  LGA and EWR were able to reach low 90s Mon with 850 temps of 16c.  I think we are looking overall warm to hot and should we miss widespread storms and rains Sat and between 7/1 - 7/3 the tendency will be for temps to outperform guidance on the sunnier days.  850s look  between 16c- 18c by the 3rd waiting for the flow to come around to from the west.  The heat has over performed to the north and as we see the ridge flatten and expand he week of Jul 6 - 11 may see much above normal temps.  

 

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The last 4 days of June are averaging 78degs., or 3.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.4[73.3].       June should end at  +2.5[73.9]. 

First 10 days of July are averaging 83.5, or +7.5.      Yesterday it was +10.0.       Warning> JFK struggles with 80 till July 7-so E. winds a problem?

72* here at 6am, hazy blue.     73* by 7am and more cloud cover----drizzle arriving by 9am?

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70/66 here as humidity has increased quite a bit.  Line of light showers coming through and wall to wall clouds for the most part back to Harrisburg.  That should get in the way of any 90s or any stronger heat that was possible.  If we get enough breaks in clouds we'll see if anyone can squeak in a 90 but doubtful.  Looks less cloudy tomorrow ahead of any scattered storms in the evening as highs again approach 90 with more of the same on Monday. 

 

Trough and ULL build down by Mon night (6/29) and lingers over or off the New England coast till Friday.  Still think with that proximity showers and rain chances are increased tue - fri.  By Friday the main ULL is lifting out allowing for a warm Jul 3 / 4th.   Another weakness is cutting off in the Mid Atlantic by 7/5 and pushing west towards TN by 7/6.  That could lead to (go figure) more onshore flow for a day or two till the 6th.  Beyond there lots of warm air over the region.

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I believe this is the first year that CAR and BTV beat both the May and June high temperatures at EWR and LGA. So far, it’s the warm season of onshore flow and the strongest  heat going to our north.

CAR

May...91

Jun....96

BTV

May....95

Jun.....96

EWR

May....86

Jun....92

LGA

May....86

Jun....93

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15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I believe this is the first year that CAR and BTV beat both the May and June high temperatures at EWR and LGA. So far, it’s the warm season of onshore flow and the strongest  heat going to our north.

CAR

May...91

Jun....96

BTV

May....95

Jun.....96

EWR

May....86

Jun....92

LGA

May....86

Jun....93

It’s the stagnant pattern. Some keep talking of 90+ constantly and it’s not happening. While we may get a day here or there, any talk of 90+ days consistently (heatwave) in the extended never happens as we get close to those forecasted hot days.  Let’s just enjoy the mid to upper 80s for now, maybe 90 in the relaxation of onshore flow before it comes back yet again. 

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30 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

It’s the stagnant pattern. Some keep talking of 90+ constantly and it’s not happening. While we may get a day here or there, any talk of 90+ days consistently (heatwave) in the extended never happens as we get close to those forecasted hot days.  Let’s just enjoy the mid to upper 80s for now, maybe 90 in the relaxation of onshore flow before it comes back yet again. 

The 95+ degree high end temperature potential has been muted so far by the pattern. But the dry conditions have allowed the maximum departures to beat the minimums. 
 

EWR

max...+2.5

min....+1.2

LGA

max....+3.6

min.....+4.0

NYC

max....+2.6

min.....+2.1

ISP

max....+3.2

min....+1.4

JFK

max..+2.0

min....0.0

BDR

max...+2.7

min....+2.2

HPN

max.....+2.8

min......+0.3

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Today saw New York City's first measurable precipitation since June 11. Drier weather should follow tomorrow.

In Europe, Norway experience record heat. Some highlights:

Bromoysund: 82° (tied June record)
Orland Iii: 84° (new June record)
Roros Lufthavn: 82° (new daily record)
Trondheim: 93° (new all-time record)

A predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change during July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region.

The CFSv2, which has now moved into its skillful range for its monthly forecasts, and the EPS weeklies favor a warmer than normal July across the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The SOI was -4.64 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.566.

On June 26, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.680 (RMM). The June 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.676.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn.

This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7°.

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The last 3 days of June are averaging 78degs , or 3degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.4[73.4].         June should end at  +2.5[73.9].

The first 10 days of July are down again*-to an average of 81 or +5(still a record pace if it held for a month)     *Was 86, 83 now 81.

74* here at 6am, hazy blue.          80* by Noon with encroaching cumulus to the west.

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While the June high temperature departures have been well above normal at EWR and LGA,  there hasn’t been an excessive number of 90 degree days for June. The +2.5 high temperature departure at Newark at 83.6 is the 10th warmest. The +3.5 at LGA and 83.6 is 5th warmest. But there has been a record  number of 88 degree days at LGA and 2nd place so for at Newark. LGA also recorded the 3rd highest number of 89 degree days for June.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature = 88 
Missing Count
1 1993 7 0
2 2020 5 3
- 1934 5 0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature = 88 
Missing Count
1 2020 4 3
2 1994 3 0
- 1987 3 0
- 1986 3 0
- 1976 3 0
- 1965 3 0
- 1961 3 0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature = 89 
Missing Count
1 2013 4 0
2 1962 3 0
3 2020 2 3



 
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