bluewave Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 We need some help from any convection on Saturday to make it out of the top 10 driest Junes. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1949 0.02 0 2 1999 0.59 0 3 2020 0.98 6 - 1894 0.98 0 4 1901 1.00 0 5 1880 1.14 0 6 1966 1.17 0 7 1898 1.25 0 8 1906 1.26 0 9 1965 1.27 0 - 1908 1.27 0 10 1873 1.28 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1949 0.03 0 2 1999 0.50 0 3 2020 0.76 6 4 1988 0.94 0 5 1965 1.14 0 6 1978 1.30 0 7 1986 1.43 0 - 1963 1.43 0 8 1966 1.44 0 9 1954 1.48 0 10 1979 1.51 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 out of range NAM but shows a stripe of decent rains Sat Night/Sun - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 25, 2020 Author Share Posted June 25, 2020 Current temp is 85 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: out of range NAM but shows a stripe of decent rains Sat Night/Sun - Our luck it'll come hard and fast and just run off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: Our luck it'll come hard and fast and just run off. Exactly. What we need is an actual low to track slowly over us, with onshore flow and stratiform rains. A summer nor’easter type deal where it rains light to moderate for a couple days. When the ground gets super dry it hardens up and runs off very easily 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Exactly. What we need is an actual low to track slowly over us, with onshore flow and stratiform rains. A summer nor’easter type deal where it rains light to moderate for a couple days. When the ground gets super dry it hardens up and runs off very easily A tropical storm that stalls over Long Island would be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Exactly. What we need is an actual low to track slowly over us, with onshore flow and stratiform rains. A summer nor’easter type deal where it rains light to moderate for a couple days. When the ground gets super dry it hardens up and runs off very easily When's the last time we had something like that? 1987? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 i would rather get 60's and inches of rain with these cutoffs than dry and near normal 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 we need rain badly, my car is suppose to be blue not green with massive amounts of bird turd! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 19 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i would rather get 60's and inches of rain with these cutoffs than dry and near normal thank goodness ny reservoir levels are at 94% capacity.. with this prolonged dry weather pattern we would have water restrictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 Snuck in a 90 here, third one so far. Down to 79 now with cloud cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 Rain 0.18" past 20 days...1.48" for month...3.25" since May 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 6/25 LGA: 89 EWR: 88 NYC: 87 ACY: 87 TEB: 86 ISP: 85 JFK: 85 PHL: 84 New Brnswck: 84 BLM: 84 TTN: 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 26, 2020 Author Share Posted June 26, 2020 High for the day was 87 here. Plenty of mid-upper 80's temps w/occasional low 90's so far this summer. Current temp 76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 Tomorrow will be another similar day as today. Temperatures should again climb into the middle and perhaps even upper 80s. A sustained generally warmer than normal pattern is now in place. That pattern will likely persist through at least July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change in July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region. The CFSv2, which is now moving into its skillful range for its monthly forecasts, and the EPS weeklies favor a warmer than normal July across the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -3.87 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.258. On June 24, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.818 (RMM). The June 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.818. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 26, 2020 Author Share Posted June 26, 2020 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 The last 5 days of June are averaging 77.5degs., or 3degs. AN. Month to date is +2.3[73.1]. June should end at +2.4[73.8]. First 10 days of July are averaging 86degs., or 10degs. AN---on the GFS. 70* here at 6am, some cirrus. 76* by Noon, cumulus around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 Driest Jan1st to June 25th in NYC since 1995. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Precipitation Jan 1 to Jun 25 Missing Count 2020-06-25 15.37 0 2019-06-25 27.28 0 2018-06-25 24.23 0 2017-06-25 27.36 0 2016-06-25 17.36 0 2015-06-25 19.27 0 2014-06-25 28.35 0 2013-06-25 29.03 0 2012-06-25 17.26 0 2011-06-25 28.20 0 2010-06-25 27.65 0 2009-06-25 24.16 0 2008-06-25 23.26 0 2007-06-25 31.72 0 2006-06-25 25.73 0 2005-06-25 21.19 0 2004-06-25 20.36 0 2003-06-25 28.23 0 2002-06-25 16.90 0 2001-06-25 21.49 0 2000-06-25 21.00 0 1999-06-25 20.89 0 1998-06-25 35.18 0 1997-06-25 19.20 0 1996-06-25 25.62 0 1995-06-25 15.28 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 Do you folks have any idea just how nice it is/was outside early this morning? Top 5 for the year! ...and you missed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 47 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Do you folks have any idea just how nice it is/was outside early this morning? Top 5 for the year! ...and you missed it I was out, G.L., hoping I’d make it to my first cup of coffee. Beautiful morning even bu UHI inner city standards. As always .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: Do you folks have any idea just how nice it is/was outside early this morning? Top 5 for the year! ...and you missed it Yup, 59 this morning. Very pleasant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: Do you folks have any idea just how nice it is/was outside early this morning? Top 5 for the year! ...and you missed it more humid this morning then it was yesterday...morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 24 minutes ago, nycwinter said: more humid this morning then it was yesterday...morning.. Quite the opposite here, the air is crystally clear and it was September morn' cool and calm with the birds tweeting away as happily as could be while the buzzy flying critters were pollinating the garden. If I could order up another 75 or so of these for this year I surely would. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 Not as dry as yday but still nice, 78 dew 60 after a low of 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 Storms missed to the south along the Jersey shore last night. Clouds did limit any widespread 90s on Wed. Warm and dry today and more upper 80s to isolated 90 degree readings (enhanced by dryness). Dew temps up a tinge near 60 now, so not as comfortable as Wed/THu. Weekend is warm and only clouds and storms timing could limit Sat from being the hottest day of the season so far. Storms come through Sat evening and hope to bring more widespread rain and downpours to the areas. Things should clear out Sunday with temps again near 90 with isolated storms. By Sunday evening a weakness in the ridge leads to trough to build down and close off over the northeast 6/30 - 7/3 Id expect guidance to show more showers and storms in this period with the position of the ULL vs prior occurrences in late May and last week.. GFS and ECM push the ULL offshore by July 4th. Some onshore flow still lingering into the 4th/5th but looks dry for the holiday weekend. Once the flow goes NW/ W the heat is on 7/5-6ish into the following week and beyond. Ridge is flatter and overall warm to hot pattern looks to ensue. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Storms missed to the south along the Jersey shore last night. Clouds did limit any widespread 90s on Wed. Warm and dry today and more upper 80s to isolated 90 degree readings (enhanced by dryness). Dew temps up a tinge near 60 now, so not as comfortable as Wed/THu. Weekend is warm and only clouds and storms timing could limit Sat from being the hottest day of the season so far. Storms come through Sat evening and hope to bring more widespread rain and downpours to the areas. Things should clear out Sunday with temps again near 90 with isolated storms. By Sunday evening a weakness in the ridge leads to trough to build down and close off over the northeast 6/30 - 7/3 Id expect guidance to show more showers and storms in this period with the position of the ULL vs prior occurrences in late May and last week.. GFS and ECM push the ULL offshore by July 4th. Some onshore flow still lingering into the 4th/5th but looks dry for the holiday weekend. Once the flow goes NW/ W the heat is on 7/5-6ish into the following week and beyond. Ridge is flatter and overall warm to hot pattern looks to ensue. We need the rain badly so I will gladly take it even if that means on the 4th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We need the rain badly so I will gladly take it even if that means on the 4th Hope to add something meaningful tomorrow and id expect through the week with the position of the ULL more QPF to shop up on guidance and hope it materializes to actual precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 I think long range models may continue to underestimate the omega block with the IO standing wave pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: Once the flow goes NW/ W the heat is on 7/5-6ish into the following week and beyond. Ridge is flatter and overall warm to hot pattern looks to ensue. I don't see anything beyond what we've been seeing so far. Probably just upper 80s to low 90s. Nothing crazy for July. 2010-2011 ain't walking through that door. The strongest heat will likely be to our north this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 26, 2020 Author Share Posted June 26, 2020 Current temp is up to 86 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now