SACRUS Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 Up to 78 off a low of 67 here. Overnight runs continue a warm pattern only interrupted 6/30 - 7/2 (or 3rd) by an onshore component before more heat comes in for Independence Day weekend. ECM did show this feature on the 00z guidance while GFS warmer than the Monday runs. Tendency has been for ridging to build north so that period is likely to see heat muted for a 3-4 day window. Beyond there July looks to sizzle for much of the nation. Days near or exceeding 90 : 6/23,24, 27, 28, 29, before a few days of cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Overnight Euro is already pulling back on any extreme heat. Looks like another omega block showing up. Cutoff with onshore flow to start July, could exit by July 4th though these systems tend to stick around longer. GFS OP would be very cool to start July. Very good point as seen in the last two cutoff ULL migrations. add a day or two vs model projections. Suspect the period would be 6/30 - 7/2 or 7/3 before the flow turns on the heat by 4th of July weekend. Alternately we can see a scenario where the flow stays more northerly pushing down the heat during that period. I would lean towards the onshore flow for a few days to open the month. With enough clouds maybe the GFS was onto something unusually cool for a day to two before the heat can filter in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 Looks like clouds and storms over W-PA should reach the area between 2 and 3 PM, lets see what they look like by then. Cached image will show wrong date so not worth posting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 9AM LGA:82 ACY: 80 EWR: 80 New Brnswck: 80 BLM: 79 NYC: 79 TEB: 79 ISP: 78 JFK: 77 TTN: 76 PHL: 76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 @bluewave the euro lost the heat for next week and has temps in the 70’s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 10AM Roundup: LGA: 84 New Brnswck: 82 EWR: 82 ACY: 81 NYC: 81 BLM: 81 TEB: 81 ISP: 81 JFK: 79 TTN: 79 PHL: 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: @bluewave the euro lost the heat for next week and has temps in the 70’s The OP Euro has been having these big run to run swings day 6-10 recently. But you can see the EPS moving toward a stronger omega blocking pattern now. New run Old run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 The lawn has seen better days... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 13 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: The lawn has seen better days... Brown fields as far as the eye can see here as well, sitting at .37” for June here. This only increases the fire risk with all the amateur fireworks these days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Brown fields as far as the eye can see here as well, sitting at .37” for June here. This only increases the fire risk with all the amateur fireworks these days. You're seeing a lot of fireworks up your way also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, doncat said: You're seeing a lot of fireworks up your way also? It's wild. We're going to need to call USNS Comfort back just to sew everybody's fingers back on after the 4th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 36 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: The lawn has seen better days... Looks like a top 5 driest June through the 22nd for your area. Time Series Summary for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jun 1 to Jun 22 Missing Count 1 1993-06-22 0.00 8 2 1949-06-22 0.02 0 3 1988-06-22 0.29 0 4 2020-06-22 0.30 0 5 1957-06-22 0.40 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: It's wild. We're going to need to call USNS Comfort back just to sew everybody's fingers back on after the 4th. Yeah the 4th should be wild this year...dont mind it then. We used to have tons of stuff when I was younger...was legal back then I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 18 minutes ago, doncat said: You're seeing a lot of fireworks up your way also? Personally, no but that’s due to my location within a county park. The area in general, yes, my infant grandson was disturbed numerous times last night while trying to go to sleep where my son lives in Middletown. There was an article in the local paper this morning about the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 Noon Roundup: New Brnswck: 86 LGA: 86 NYC: 85 EWR: 85 TEB: 85 PHL: 84 TTN: 84 ISP: 82 BLM: 81 JFK: 81 ACY: 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said: Personally, no but that’s due to my location within a county park. The area in general, yes, my infant grandson was disturbed numerous times last night while trying to go to sleep where my son lives in Middletown. There was an article in the local paper this morning about the issue. Yeah very inconsiderate to be setting those things off late at night, other than on the 4th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Juliancolton said: The lawn has seen better days... I was in your neighborhood yesterday and yeah, it's really dry. Heck, the corn in my yard is at least twice the size of everything up there and the gardens that looked so good 2 weeks ago don't now. The Capitol Region is even drier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 Any rain will be welcomed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 1 hour ago, doncat said: Yeah the 4th should be wild this year...dont mind it then. We used to have tons of stuff when I was younger...was legal back then I believe. as a kid I wasn't allowed to get fireworks...the next day I would round up all the duds and light them up...back in the 1960's it was a war zone in my neighborhood...If you drove you were a moving target for cherry bombs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 as a kid before fireworks were banned in nyc.. every 4th of july would sound like a war zone explosions going on for hours into the morning... it's been mostly quite ever since until the last few weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: one of those years the heat just want to get here-basically the reverse of winter where the cold never came 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 Expect it’s been record heat after record heat to our north, 90s literally everyday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 41 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Expect it’s been record heat after record heat to our north, 90s literally everyday Unusual ring of ridging to our north across the Northern Hemisphere since last late May. Keeps us in an easterly flow with record warmth to our north and west. So we get these omega block type patterns that occasionally extend into Northern New England. The first in late May had the new May all-time high temperature for BTV. Most recently, CAR had their all-time June high. Albany recorded a daily record high yesterday. The models now continue this general pattern into at least early July. So this year we are getting and early summer pattern that actually began in late May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: one of those years the heat just want to get here-basically the reverse of winter where the cold never came If you like heat it's like its too hot for your own good. Record warmth shooting past us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 5 hours ago, Allsnow said: @bluewave the euro lost the heat for next week and has temps in the 70’s Whenever you see that trough build northeast of us, this year expect it to strengthen and expand. The number of days with primarily a westerly wind is a small fraction of the days with a southerly or easterly wind in the last 3-4 months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 54 minutes ago, bluewave said: Unusual ring of ridging to our north across the Northern Hemisphere since last late May. Keeps us in an easterly flow with record warmth to our north and west. So we get these omega block type patterns that occasionally extend into Northern New England. The first in late May had the new May all-time high temperature for BTV. Most recently, CAR had their all-time June high. Albany recorded a daily record high yesterday. The models now continue this general pattern into at least early July. So this year we are getting and early summer pattern that actually began in late May. in 2018 we had to wait for the subtropical ridge expansion to give us more S to SW flow and we got hot toward august Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 Euro night and day vs yesterday. July 4th weekend remains a question mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 22 hours ago, Allsnow said: Another euro fantasy heatwave or you think this is legit? if we get a hot spell it will be from an atlantic ridge retrograde which can push any cutoff far enough to our east. the classic plains heat releases are just not working out this year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 We may get some pretty sunsets this weekend if the SAL forecast works out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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