June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[donsutherland1]

As of 2 pm, the temperature had reached a high of 90° in Central Park. That is New York City's first temperature of 90° or above this summer. The last time Central Park reached 90° or above was October 2, 2019 when the temperature topped out at a daily record high temperature of 93°.

[nycwinter]

On 6/18/2020 at 7:03 PM, forkyfork said:

the central park asos has been irrelevant since 1996

 

[Rtd208]

High for the day made it up to 91 here.

Current temp has dropped back to 87

[LoboLeader1]

90 here.

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

As of 2 pm, the temperature had reached a high of 90° in Central Park. That is New York City's first temperature of 90° or above this summer. The last time Central Park reached 90° or above was October 2, 2019 when the temperature topped out at a daily record high temperature of 93°.

Today's temp there was pretty much in line with everyone else. 

Hit 92 briefly here, not sitting at 89.8.

[bluewave]

It will be interesting to see how far north this record breaking SALcan get.

 

[forkyfork]

here comes the sea breeze

[Santa Claus]

14 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

here comes the sea breeze

maybe some storms will pop?

[uofmiami]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see how far north this record breaking SALcan get.

 

Should get to the mid-atlantic region perhaps.  Ryan Maue has been posting on this for the past few days.  His latest on the record depth of the SAL in the air.

 

 

[forkyfork]

hot euro run

[forkyfork]

17 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

maybe some storms will pop?

the LCL looks too high IMO

[psv88]

We 90s. Cherry popped

[Rtd208]

Temp back up to 91 here now.

[Rtd208]

32 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

hot euro run

Its probably overdone but we'll see. If it still shows this by the end of the week I may start to buy into it.

[doncat]

Made it to 92° today, even with sea breeze kicking in around 2pm.

[CIK62]

Was on the beach from 1pm-4pm here in CI and T maxed out at just 78* during that time frame.      A moist S wind was the culprit ( or the good guy, if you don't like that heat ).    I expect it to make 80* shortly, now 79* at 5:30pm.      

Reached 81* at 7pm, for the high.

[dWave]

Mostly sunny 90. dew 70. High was 91

[bluewave]

Another day with the heat records to our north.

 

[Allsnow]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

hot euro run

Another euro fantasy heatwave or you think this is legit? 

[doncat]

17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Another euro fantasy heatwave or you think this is legit? 

Looks like plenty of heat even before that.

[qg_omega]

Looks legit heat next week

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Looks legit heat next week

I don't see anything beyond low 90s, there's also hints of more onshore flow.

I don't buy the big heat the Euro is selling. 

[SACRUS]

6/22

LGA: 93
EWR: 92
New Brnswck: 91
TEB: 91
NYC: 90
BLM: 90
TTN: 89
PHL: 89
ACY: 88
ISP: 88
JFK: 87

[qg_omega]

36 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't see anything beyond low 90s, there's also hints of more onshore flow.

I don't buy the big heat the Euro is selling. 

It favors the upstate for sure, already many 90s from Albany north this year

[donsutherland1]

This afternoon, the temperature reached 90° at Central Park. That was New York City's first 90° or above temperature this year. The last time the temperature reached 90° in Central Park was October 2, 2019 when the temperature peaked at a daily record high figure of 93°.

Elsewhere in the Northeast, high temperatures included: Albany: 95° (tied record set in 1954); Bridgeport: 90°; Burlington: 96° (old record: 92°, 1921); Hartford: 94°; Islip: 88°; Newark: 90°; and, Philadelphia: 89°.

In addition, Montreal set a daily record high temperature of 94° (old record: 90°, 1957) and Quebec City reached a daily record 91° (old record: 90°, 2003).

Tomorrow will be another very warm and generally dry day. The temperature could again approach or perhaps even reach 90° in New York City. Precipitation will likely remain below to much below normal in the region through the remainder of June.

The long advertised sustained warmer than normal pattern has now developed. That pattern will likely persist through at least July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change in July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region.

The 12z ECMWF hints at the possibility of extreme heat to begin July. In stark contrast, the 18z GFS shows high temperatures of 67° on June 30, 64° on July 1, and 66° on July 2 in New York City. Since regular recordkeeping began in 1869, New York City has never had three consecutive days with high temperatures below 70° during the June 30-July 31 period. Based on the EPS and GEFS and overall pattern evolution, the operational GFS is an outlier. Readings will likely be above normal as July commences.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The SOI was +2.46 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.005.

On June 21, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.849 (RMM). The June 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.732.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn.

This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8°.

 

[uncle W]

 

some summer heat records for NYC...the 11 yr hot summer cycle years of 1944, 1955, 1966, 1977, 1988, 1999, 2010 made one or both lists...

Extreme heat days 95 or higher for NYC.....

16 in 1955

13 in 1988

12 in 1953

12 in 1993

12 in 1999

12 in 2002

10 in 1944

10 in 1980

9.. in 2005

9.. in 1983

9.. in 1966

8.. in 1963

8.. in 1991

8.. in 2010

...…...…...……….

Hottest week...

high low mean max ..

98.0 76.9 87.4 102 7/07-7/13 1993

98.4 76.3 87.4 104 7/15-7/21 1977

98.3 76.0 87.1 102 8/29-9/04 1953

95.1 78.9 87.0 .98. 8/05-8/11 1896

95.7 77.9 86.8 104 7/18-7/24 2011

94.6 79.0 86.8 .98. 7/14-7/20 2013

95.3 78.0 86.7 .99. 8/09-8/15 1988

96.6 75.1 85.9 102 8/11-8/17 1944

96.1 75.2 85.7 100 8/01-8/07 1955

95.3 75.9 85.6 103 8/04-8/10 2001

94.9 76.1 85.5 102 7/16-7/22 1980

97.3 73.6 85.4 102 7/17-7/23 1991

95.7 75.1 85.4 .98. 8/28-9/03 1973

94.1 76.7 85.4 .96. 7/12-7/18 1981

94.3 76.4 85.4 103 7/04-7/10 2010

95.4 75.1 85.3 100 7/17-7/23 1955

[CIK62]

The last 8 days of June are averaging 77.5degs., or 3.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +1.8[72.2].            June should end at  +2.2[73.6].

73* at 6am, mostly clear.         75* by 10am.        74*! at 11am.        74* at Noon.      77* by 5pm.

GFS is lower by 30 degrees for the start of July than just a few runs ago.        As in JWB's reported  last utterances      "Useless, Useless".

[SnoSki14]

Overnight Euro is already pulling back on any extreme heat. Looks like another omega block showing up.

Cutoff with onshore flow to start July, could exit by July 4th though these systems tend to stick around longer. 

GFS OP would be very cool to start July.

[MJO812]

12 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Another euro fantasy heatwave or you think this is legit? 

Alot of fantasy stuff on the Euro this year.

[bluewave]

Models going for a -NAO drop with a continuing omega block in the 6-10 day forecast. So this may keep the strongest heat to our west at that time. Lower heights possible over New England with high pressure to the north. So this week could turn out to be warmer than next week.