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June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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The high so far of 94 at Caribou is just 2 degrees from the all-time record high of 96 degrees.

 

The all-time record high in Caribou is 96F, last set on May 22,
1977. There was one other occurrence of a high of 96F, on June
29, 1944. There have been only 9 times in Caribou with a high of
95F, the last of which was on July 20, 1991.

 

CCE1CBEA-E0F7-440D-8D77-B562CEBCCB02.png.6c46fcca220189682c9589bbac5562cb.png

 

 

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Waiting for your first 90-Degree Day, hey?    

Well this is the BIG BOPPER speakin',  I mean the BIG GFS-----How about 12 90's in a row starting Monday?

These GFS OP's have been psycho for five weeks already.         How is this model ever going to show snow around here with such a consistent positive error?

Latest GFS OP for 18Z does the previous run one better with 13 straight 90's and throws two 100's in to boot.

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24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has an impressive extended heatwave for New England over the next week. Double digit 7-day temperature departures.

 

Amazing, it looks like some atmospheric deity decided to turn the typical weather upside down. GW conversations should be on the rise after that stretch. As always ....

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47 minutes ago, rclab said:

Amazing, it looks like some atmospheric deity decided to turn the typical weather upside down. GW conversations should be on the rise after that stretch. As always ....

The 95 record high at Caribou is just 1 degree from their all-time record high temperature.

 

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51 minutes ago, rclab said:

Amazing, it looks like some atmospheric deity decided to turn the typical weather upside down. GW conversations should be on the rise after that stretch. As always ....

The subtropical ridge has shifted so far north that we're getting onshore flow on the backside of it. 

But yes it is pretty incredible, the Siberian heat is also extremely unusual.

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18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The subtropical ridge has shifted so far north that we're getting onshore flow on the backside of it. 

But yes it is pretty incredible, the Siberian heat is also extremely unusual.

Parts of Siberia are around +14°F for January through May.

 

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On 6/11/2020 at 10:58 AM, gravitylover said:

Nah think... 2020. We're bound to have  some volcanic disaster that will make next year the year without a summer. It will most likely happen when the world locks down again in December due to the next wave of the virus so there won't be mass extermination of human life because we'll mostly be at home. It's 2020 you have to think plague, storms, locusts and other earthly disasters... ;)

I'm already worried about this hurricane season.......

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On 6/11/2020 at 11:12 AM, donsutherland1 said:

I agree with respect to something like but perhaps warmer than 1995. If the 11year solar cycle would suggest a very warm summer next year. 

oh I meant this summer might include late heat like 1995 did....along with the dry weather we're already seeing becoming a fire hazard just like 1995 was in August.

Next summer might be more like 2010 with all that heat and setting records all over the place.

 

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Temperatures again rose into the upper 70s across much of the region despite more clouds than yesterday. Meanwhile, record heat occurred in parts of Quebec and Maine. Two records included:

Caribou: 95° (old record: 90°, 1949 and 1955)
Quebec City: 91° (old record: 90°, 2017)

More records could fall across this region tomorrow.

Meanwhile, the Middle Atlantic region remains on the cusp of a major transition that will lead to sustained warmer than normal conditions. Tomorrow will be partly sunny, warmer, and a little more humid.

Initially, as the warmer pattern develops, extreme heat is unlikely. Once it develops, the warm pattern could then lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. One or more heatwaves are likely in July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The SOI was -30.79 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.314.

On June 17, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.440 (RMM). The June 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.585.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn.

This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.2°.

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The next 8 days are averaging 75degs., or 2degs. AN.

Month to date is  +1.1[70 9].           Should be +1.4[72.2] by the 27th.

65* here at 6am, cloudy, no real fog.         Just 71* here by 2pm.         74* by 6pm.              71* by 11pm.

GFS OP again has 13 straight 90-Degree Days incoming starting Monday.     ENS scaping 90 all the way too now.

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Down to 62 last night and up to 75/63 with  Partly sunny skies.  0.11 in the bucket yesterday.

 

More southerly flow next few days, means steamy, warm and potentially wet, slow moving storms.  Fri - Sun where the sun is out it'll shoot into the 80s and with Dewpoint temps in the upper 60s to low 70s be very uncomfortable.  Beyond there Mon (6/22) to Fri (6/26) very warm and with enough the opportunity to rack up a few 90(+) days between storms/showers.  Beyond there into the last few days of June and into early July suttle shift to more ridging showing up.  Lets see how it evolves.  Time to start the July 4th forecast.  Overall looks warmer on latest guidance in the long run similar to  Perhaps taking shape similar to Don's call in the long range (seasonal) warmer Jul-Aug..

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