SACRUS Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 75 / 52 here at 9:30. Off a low of 53. Looks like bit of a difficult to pin down type of pattern shaping up in the 6/14 - 6/20 period with ULL undercutting ridging. Wont be rain everyday but pending on where the ULL(s) setup may bring some much cooler /wetter weather for part of that period. Beyond there Rockies ridge should push east again to close out June, but center of ridge may favor warm but stormy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 Today screams overperformer temp wise, high is 84, already 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 32 minutes ago, SACRUS said: but center of ridge may favor warm but stormy. Do you think there is a risk of ridge runners and severe weather moving NW to SE in such a pattern ? Looks interesting at this time frame, even though it is way out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 9, 2020 Author Share Posted June 9, 2020 Current temp 80/DP 59/RH 48% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 86 already, maybe 88 before sea breeze? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 82 / 57 Summer breeze blowin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 1 hour ago, frd said: Do you think there is a risk of ridge runners and severe weather moving NW to SE in such a pattern ? Looks interesting at this time frame, even though it is way out there. Will be interesting to see how it evolves. Could be for someone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 88/60 here....90 would be cool. No clouds, should be doable if the sea breeze stays at bay (pun intended). Edit: Back down to 86... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 Noon roundup; LGA: 84 EWR: 84 ACY: 84 NYC: 83 New Brnswck: 83 TEB: 83 BLM: 82 PHL: 81 TTN: 81 ISP: 81 JFK: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 27 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 82 / 57 Summer breeze blowin 78/57 with partly cloudy skies near KSWF. Point and click has a high of 90. We’ll see if the clouds burn off to get the temps up there later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 @bluewave Any comment on this occurrence regarding the QBO? A great read throughout and thought provoking. A rather complex event and a evolving one as well. Seems the implications "could" be wide ranging for the summer into the winter . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 44 minutes ago, frd said: @bluewave Any comment on this occurrence regarding the QBO? A great read throughout and thought provoking. A rather complex event and a evolving one as well. Seems the implications "could" be wide ranging for the summer into the winter . It will be interesting to see what happens. Research suggests that these disruptions will become more common as the climate continues to warm. A meteorologist on twitter wondered if this particular event was related to the record +IOD. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/353/6306/1424 One of the most repeatable phenomena seen in the atmosphere, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) between prevailing eastward and westward wind jets in the equatorial stratosphere (approximately 16 to 50 kilometers altitude), was unexpectedly disrupted in February 2016. An unprecedented westward jet formed within the eastward phase in the lower stratosphere and cannot be accounted for by the standard QBO paradigm based on vertical momentum transport. Instead, the primary cause was waves transporting momentum from the Northern Hemisphere. Seasonal forecasts did not predict the disruption, but analogous QBO disruptions are seen very occasionally in some climate simulations. A return to more typical QBO behavior within the next year is forecast, although the possibility of more frequent occurrences of similar disruptions is projected for a warming climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 2PM Roundup; LGA: 89 EWR: 87 New Brnswck: 87 TEB: 87 NYC: 86 BLM: 86 PHL: 85 TTN: 83 ACY: 83 ISP: 80 JFK: 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 88 imby...89 was the high so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 9, 2020 Author Share Posted June 9, 2020 Current temp 90/DP 59/RH 36% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 89 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 another west trending cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 2 hours ago, Cfa said: 88/60 here....90 would be cool. No clouds, should be doable if the sea breeze stays at bay (pun intended). Edit: Back down to 86... 88 here as well. ISP only reporting 83 for a high, seems low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 Sunny, 90, dew 59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 the frequency of 80 degree minimum days are going up like all the other temperature records for NYC and Newark NJ....here is the list of days with a minimum 80 or higher for NYC and Newark... Newark N.J. 80 degree minimum days... min/max...date... 80/97.....7/17/1968 80/90.....7/24/1972 80/97.....8/03/1975 80/98.....7/23/1978 81/101...7/21/1980 80/98.....7/09/1981 80/94.....7/10/1981 80/100...7/18/1982 80/98.....7/19/1982 80/98.....7/16/1983 80/97.....8/15/1985 80/95.....8/12/1988 80/98.....8/14/1988 81/99.....8/15/1988 82/105...7/08/1993 83/104...7/09/1993 84/105...7/10/1993 80/99.....7/11/1993 80/97.....7/12/1993 82/104...7/15/1995 81/103...7/05/1999 82/102...7/06/1999 80/99.....8/01/1999 82/101...8/08/2001 82/98.....7/03/2002 81/100...7/04/2002 81/96.....7/30/2002 80/102...8/13/2005 81/100...8/02/2006 80/101...8/03/2006 80/98.....6/28/2010 81/103...7/06/2010 82/99.....7/24/2010 86/108...7/22/2011 86/102...7/23/2011 82/100...7/19/2013 80/97.....7/20/2015 80/98.....7/23/2016 80/97.....8/14/2016 80/98.....7/20/2019 80/99.....7/21/2019 ……………...………………………………………………………….. min/max.......dates... 81/90......7/03/1876 81/90......7/19/1878 80/95......7/07/1883 80/94......7/25/1885 81/91......8/11/1891 82/98......8/09/1896 80/94......8/10/1896 81/96......8/11/1896 81/95......7/18/1900 80/95......6/30/1901 82/100....7/02/1901 80/96......7/18/1905 80/95......7/19/1905 80/92......8/11/1905 80/87......7/23/1906 80/94......8/06/1906 80/90......7/05/1908 81/95......7/06/1908 84/93......7/07/1908 81/93......8/05/1908 80/87......8/06/1908 82/94......8/13/1908 84/93......8/14/1908 82/100....7/31/1917 82/98......8/01/1917 80/96......8/06/1918 82/104....8/07/1918 81/94......7/20/1930 80/98......8/02/1933 81/100....6/26/1952 80/95......7/16/1952 80/101....7/22/1957 81/95......7/23/1978 82/102....7/21/1980 80/96......8/08/1980 80/95......8/09/1980 80/95......8/15/1985 80/94......8/12/1988 80/99......8/14/1988 81/97......8/15/1988 80/100....7/08/1993 80/102....7/10/1993 84/102....7/15/1995 82/102....7/05/1999 83/101....7/06/1999 82/103....8/09/2001 82/95......7/03/2002 81/96......7/04/2002 80/95......7/30/2002 80/98......8/13/2002 80/99......8/13/2005 83/97......8/02/2006 81/103....7/06/2010 80/100....7/07/2010 80/97......7/24/2010 84/104....7/22/2011 83/100....7/23/2011 82/94......7/20/2015 80/96......7/23/2016 81/96......8/13/2016 81/92......8/29/2018 82/95......7/20/2019 80/95......7/21/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 9, 2020 Author Share Posted June 9, 2020 Current temp up to 91 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 91° for high here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 90 max...60 min today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 high 91 here. 87 now. 1st 90 of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Wild T distributions in location and time. I was on beach during the afternoon and felt an almost chilly S=breeze around 2pm-3pm. JFK T was killed by this and I did not even reach 80* till 4pm and wound up with an 89* near 7pm! GFS still going with a hot period [19th-25th] with numerous runs having100's showing. Not getting that impression from other outputs. The last 10 days of the month look Normal or better on the analogs. 500mb heights are 5820m but it shows this level dropping sharply south during the July 04th period----dropping down to S. Carolina in a sharp trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 6/9 LGA: 91 EWR: 91 TEB: 89 BLM: 89 New Brnswck: 88 PHL: 88 NYC: 87 TTN: 86 ACY: 85 ISP: 83 JFK: 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Temperatures will returned to the 80s across much of the region today with a few 90° temperatures. High temperatures included: Bridgeport: 85°; Islip: 83°; New York City: 87°; Newark: 90°; and, Philadelphia: 88°. Tomorrow will be another warm day with temperatures rising into at least the lower and middle 80s. No excessive heat is likely through at least the first half of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, there are emerging hints of a long-range pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions perhaps beginning in the third or fourth week of June. Afterward, the pattern change could lock in for July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was +7.31 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.152. On June 8, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.633 (RMM). The June 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.685. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 72.5°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 High of 90 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 1 hour ago, dmillz25 said: High of 90 here only low 80s here but high humidity my first use of the AC this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: only low 80s here but high humidity my first use of the AC this year Same for me. Pretty late in comparison to other years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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