June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, uncle W said:

snowfall measurements have been unreliable at times since 1996...

Yeah, the temperatures and snowfall measurements have been off since then. You can see the artificial declining summer high temperature trend since the thermometer got moved into the deep shade. 
 

 

 

[forkyfork]

that 1993 figure at ewr looks suspicious 

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 85 here as of 6PM, thankfully the RH has dropped in the past couple of hours.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

that 1993 figure at ewr looks suspicious 

There was some talk that there may have been a sensor issue at EWR in 1993. But I haven’t heard anything definitive. It still stands as the most 100 degree days there.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100	Missing Count
1	1993	9	0
2	1949	8	0
3	1953	6	0
4	1988	5	0
-	1966	5	0
5	2011	4	0
-	2010	4	0
-	1955	4	0
-	1944	4	0

[Stormlover74]

July 93 was +5 and all but 9 days were above 90

[Animal]

Temps dropping quickly in nw nj & dew points.

[Cfa]

Dew point has plummeted from the 70’s to the 50’s over the last hour.

Temp is 78, high was 85.

[Animal]

2 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Dew point has plummeted from the 70’s to the 50’s over the last hour.

Temp is 78, high was 85.

It’s actually feeling slightly chilly on the ridge line

[donsutherland1]

Today was the hottest day so far in parts of the region. High temperatures:

Allentown: 88°
Baltimore: 91°
Boston: 89°
Bridgeport: 83°
Islip: 82°
New York City: 86°
Newark: 90°
Philadelphia: 90°
Poughkeepsie: 89°
Washington, DC: 91°

Somewhat cooler air will overspread the region tonight. Tomorrow and Monday will see temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s in the northern Middle Atlantic region.

No excessive heat is likely through at least the first two weeks of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, there are emerging hints of a long-range pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions perhaps beginning in the third or fourth week of June. Afterward, the pattern change could lock in for July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around May 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into the end of May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has continued to increase.

The SOI was -38.45 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.466.

On June 5, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.984 (RMM). The June 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.826.

April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures.

This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June month. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East.

 

[SACRUS]

6/6

EWR: 91
PHL: 90
LGA: 90
New Nrnswck: 89
ACY: 89
BLM: 88
TEB: 88
TTN: 87
NYC: 86
JFK: 86
ISP: 82

[SACRUS]

 

After Thu 6/11, looking like 7 - 10 days of persistent trough into the E coast/Northeast and possible rather wet.  There will be some tremendous heat building into the Rockies/Plains that could be poised to offer a very hot finish to June,  on/around 6/21 and beyond.  Perhaps the flip back to the warmer regime.  Its way out there.

 

 

[Rjay]

5 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Storms developed south of me here, winds already shifting and the humidity dropped like a rock. Gonna have some drinks on the deck in honor of those storms probably missing @Rjay yet again...

 

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Congrats @Rjay

Fell asleep watching a movie and missed both storms lol.

 

Unreal lol

[psv88]

13 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

Fell asleep watching a movie and missed both storms lol.

 

Unreal lol

 I was also asleep haha 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

 

Fell asleep watching a movie and missed both storms lol.

 

Unreal lol

They weren’t anything special at Jones beach. They both had minor roll clouds, but very little lighting or wind. 
 

[Tatamy]

Another pic of the shelf cloud from Jones Beach (from FB)

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 73degs., or about 2degs. AN.

65* here at 6am, and clear.     66* by 9am.          71* by Noon.        75* by 3pm.      79* by 5pm.

NEWARK 91.   CENTRAL PARK 86.     Even I got to 89* here, yesterday.

[bluewave]

The Christobal ET will result in a -5SD near record 980 mb low over the Western Great Lakes for a June.  So the heat and high dew point surge will allow the warm spots to challenge 90 this week. Longer range, the Christobal wave break will reestablish the blocking and cooler temperatures here for mid-June. 

 

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

Another great beach day. 71/52 here now

Overnight models continue to have higher heights in the east Mon - Fri overall and earlier risk of onshore flow seem muted with more heat tue -wed ahead of the front and again on Friday.  The front and trough arrive by next weekend 6/13 and that's where it looks about 7 days of trouging and ULL north so cooler and need to watch how wet 6/13 - 6/19.  Big heat in the rockies and plains should spill onto the GL and NE beyond there s we flatten  out the trough and start to  build heights 

[nycwinter]

you don't get much better days in june.. nice comfortable temps low humidity a refreshing breeze.. picture perfect day...

[gravitylover]

Gotta love the cool dry days, makes it so much nicer to do heavy work around the yard and you get so much more done. I'll take a few dry days after the recent wetness and I like the idea of cooler mid month. 

[donsutherland1]

Under bright sunshine, a refreshing breeze, and fair weather cumulus clouds, the temperature rose into the 70s today. Tomorrow will again see temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s in the northern Middle Atlantic region.

No excessive heat is likely through at least the first two weeks of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, there are emerging hints of a long-range pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions perhaps beginning in the third or fourth week of June. Afterward, the pattern change could lock in for July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around May 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into the end of May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has continued to increase.

The SOI was -13.71 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.152.

On June 6, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.772 (RMM). The June 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.982.

April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures.

This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June month. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East.

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 73degs., or 2degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.3[70.3].        Should be about  +2.1[71.7] by the 16th. 

63* at 6am, clear.          71* by 11am.         72* by Noon.        Back to 70* at 1pm.        78* by 4pm.         Back to 72* at 5pm.

[SACRUS]

Made it down to 49 last night.  Up to 66 already with California style weather again.  Should see temps get close to or exceed 90 Tue and Wed. 850MB temps pushing 18-20c Wed before storms then again on Friday.

Overnight models still indicting a switch to a somewhat cooler period arriving this coming Saturday (6/q13) with a trough into the EC and ULL over Maine. There is a split in the speed in which the gfs, ECM  clear out the trough between 6/17 and 6/21 (06 gfs rebuilds trough).   Take the split  with a  push to warmer and more ridging 6/18 or 19th .  We shall see.  Very hot temp/airmass build into the Rockies and push into the plains and GL later in the run...

[Rtd208]

Current temp 82 here.

[CIK62]

THE INSANE 18Z GFS (from yesterdays run, I just spotted it) is  GIVING NOTICE FOR 5 STRAIGHT 100-DEGREE DAYS STARTING THE 19TH.      May have been going for a sixth straight day----Gee! we will never know---that is where the run ended.

Now the heatwave is hundreds to miles to the north of us, near Hudson Bay.       Another period like near May 27 up there?

Gotta print this one out and solve the toilet paper shortage.

Eight days ago it showed heavy duty 90's for June 08---13.   

[doncat]

82°/55° temp split today.

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures will return to the 80s across much of the region tomorrow.

No excessive heat is likely through at least the first half of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, there are emerging hints of a long-range pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions perhaps beginning in the third or fourth week of June. Afterward, the pattern change could lock in for July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The SOI was +12.37 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.152.

On June 7, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.696 (RMM). The June 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.772.

April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures.

This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 72.5°.

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 72degs., or about 1deg. AN.

Month to date is  +2.0[70.1].          Should be about  +1.6[71.1] by the 17th.

65* here at 6am, clear.       69* by 9am, 70* by 9:30am.        76* by Noon.        Did not even reach 80* till 4pm with S wind.     Was on beach all afternoon.        84* at 5pm.

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 59 here as of 6:30AM.

[bluewave]

Warm spots around the region will see 90 degree potential today and tomorrow. Dew points will be on the increase Wednesday to go along with the heat. Scattered convection is possible on Thursday as the Christobal ET pulls a cold front through.