donsutherland1 Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the middle and upper 70s in much of the area. Temperatures will remain below normal through midweek with delightful sun-filled days, low humidity, and a continued absence of summer-like heat. More clouds are likely Thursday and Friday just ahead of the start of a major pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely. Once it develops, the warm pattern could then lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. Through June 16, just 15.37" rain has fallen in New York City. That is 6.96" below normal. As a result of what could be an emerging drought, there is just a 17% implied probability (1971-2019 base period) that New York City will reach 50.00" or more precipitation this year. The last time New York City had less than 50.00" precipitation was 2017 when 45.04" fell. In addition, there is a growing probability that New York City could receive less than 40.00" precipitation this year. The last time that happened was 2012, when just 38.51" precipitation was recorded. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -11.88 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.010. On June 15, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.407 (RMM). The June 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.221. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 69% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 75/55 temp split today...cools off rapidly after sunset with an East wind, currently 64°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 78/54 here today, currently 65. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Cfa said: 78/54 here today, currently 65. Same numbers here again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 76/52 split in Syosset today. Muttontown was 77/49. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 I hope we don't see any 90s this summer. These temps are beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 73degs., or 0.5degs. AN. Month to date is +1.5[71.0]. Should be about +1.2[71.7] by the 24th. GFS ENS is just Normal for the rest of the month, say 73-----so June would end at about 72.0, or a little AN. 64* here at 6am, clear. 72* by 11am, but cloudy. 75* at Noon, some clearing. Back to72* by 2pm. (78* briefly near 3pm) 71* at 3pm. 66* by 8pm. 64* by 11pm, foggy all evening at about 1mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 Areas that missed the convection are seeing one of their driest mid-May to mid-June periods on record. Bridgeport has picked up less than an inch of rain over the last 30 days. LGA and ISP only have a little more than an inch. Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation May 18 to Jun 16 Missing Count 1 1957-06-16 0.63 0 2 2020-06-16 0.75 1 3 1955-06-16 1.15 0 4 1971-06-16 1.16 0 5 1987-06-16 1.19 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation May 18 to Jun 16 Missing Count 1 1967-06-16 0.58 0 2 2020-06-16 1.12 1 3 1944-06-16 1.19 0 4 1994-06-16 1.39 0 5 1965-06-16 1.49 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation May 18 to Jun 16 Missing Count 1 1964-06-16 0.91 0 2 1994-06-16 1.11 0 3 1981-06-16 1.12 0 4 2020-06-16 1.21 1 5 1967-06-16 1.24 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 The dry weather could actually aid in us getting 100s in July/August if a pattern develops that can funnel that kind of heat. Also 90s delayed not denied for early next week instead of this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 Another California type day. Low of 53 up to 69 with onshore flow. Clouds just south of CNJ and burning off. Go from Southern California to a more Southern Florida type pattern by Saturday Overall theme continues with the cut off lingering over the northeast into Father day as the flow goes more southerly by Saturday with seemingly plenty of clouds and chances for storms. Steamier pattern until the ULL opens and shift east allowing a more SW flow by Mon - Thu and pending on storms and clouds, its plenty warm enough to rack up 90s (gotta see if clouds get in the way) Beyond there it looks like that active warm but stormy pattern continues into the end of June. Ridging looks aimed into the Rockies/Plains through the period. Way out there but the open of July could see the WAR pushing west and rockies/Plain ridge moving east finally allowing a more sustained warmup into the area. Season tendencies of course need to be considered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 Cool down; 6/13: NYC: 75/59 (-4) EWR: 77/58 (-4) LGA: 77/60 (-3) JFK: 73/59 (-3) TTN: 74/57 (-4) 6/14 NYC: 75/52(-6) EWR: 75/53 (-8) LGA: 75/55 (-7) JFK: 71/54 (-7) TTN: 75/52 (-6) 6/15: NYC: 75/59 (-5) EWR: 75/56 (-7) LGA: 77/62 (-2) JFK: 73/56 (-5) TTN: 75/52 (-7) 6/16: NYC: 78/60 (-3) EWR: 78/57 (-5) LGA: 80/63 (-1) JFK: 76/58 (-4) TTN: 76/53 (-6) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 Send rain please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Send rain please Bone dry here-lawns are brown. We've had about an inch of rain since 5/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 33 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Bone dry here-lawns are brown. We've had about an inch of rain since 5/10. I have my front yard zones, which are south facing & bake in sun all day, going on every evening around 6pm for 10 min each zone to keep the grass green. Started it a couple of weeks ago. Rest of grass is fine with water every other day in morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Grann Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Bone dry here-lawns are brown. We've had about an inch of rain since 5/10. The people who care about their lawns use a sprinkler. The people who really care about their lawns have an inground sprinkler system. The rest of the people have a crappy weed lawn to begin with and are happy it's brown so they don't need to mow it as often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 36 minutes ago, Jeff Grann said: The people who care about their lawns use a sprinkler. The people who really care about their lawns have an inground sprinkler system. The rest of the people have a crappy weed lawn to begin with and are happy it's brown so they don't need to mow it as often. I have zero issues letting my relatively weed free yard going dormant. If I’m having a party I will occasionally use sprinklers on that section of the yard, otherwise let Mother Nature deal with it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 17, 2020 Author Share Posted June 17, 2020 Current temp is 81 here. High was only supposed to be in the low 70's today. NJZ012-172000- Middlesex- Including the city of New Brunswick 100 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020 .THIS AFTERNOON...Partly sunny. Near steady temperature in the lower 70s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 17, 2020 Author Share Posted June 17, 2020 It looks like that onshore flow finally kicked in, temp down to 75 here now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 It will be interesting to see if Caribou can challenge their all-time June high temperature. Burlington recently set their all-time May record high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 Managed a 78° high today with a ne wind...wind shifted back se and temp dropped quickly into the 60's mid afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 The Middle Atlantic region is now on the cusp of a transition that will likely led to sustained warmer than normal conditions. Tomorrow will see more clouds than today and the humidity will also be higher. Initially, as the warmer pattern develops, extreme heat is unlikely. Once it develops, the warm pattern could then lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -22.42 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.286. On June 16, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.584 (RMM). The June 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.407. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 8 hours ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see if Caribou can challenge their all-time June high temperature. Burlington recently set their all-time May record high. Crazy how the heat has been shooting right over us like this. Surprised no heat advisories in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 The Milky Way tonight is the brightest I've seen it in a few years up here. Some good detail in the central dust lanes even with the unaided eye. Inversion refracting some of NYC's light pollution back down? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 18 hours ago, Jeff Grann said: The people who care about their lawns use a sprinkler. The people who really care about their lawns have an inground sprinkler system. The rest of the people have a crappy weed lawn to begin with and are happy it's brown so they don't need to mow it as often. Hmm 24 years in this house and never even had a sprinkler At least the yard passes the 50ft @ 20mph drive by when it's green. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 73degs., or 1deg. AN. Month to date is +1.2[70.9]. Should be +1.1[71.6] by the 26th. 66* here at 6am, foggy 1or 2 miles visibility. 70* by 10am, just cloudy. 72* by 2pm. 71* by 7pm, foggy at 1 mile visibility. 68* by 9pm, FOG<.0.2miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 I’m really hoping for a switch to wet, starting the warm season already in dry state is going to be a nightmare for me watering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 67/65 now with li rain. Clouds were widespread and never yielded yesterday. Here is that rainy day with clouds, mist and light rain. Moving from Southern California into a Southern Florida type feel by the weekend. Stuck up pattern revealing itself. Warm and wet next 7 - 10 days. Cut off / ULL meanders over the northeast Fri - Sun with a more S/ SE flow and enhanced clouds and showers. Steamy , perhaps stormy and warm when the sun comes out. By Mon (6/22) - Sat (6/28) could get hot where clouds /storms don't get in the way and if some areas can eek out 3 mostly dry days, it could be the seasons initial heatwave lots of mid / upper 80s and DT in the 60s. or more. Looks similar to first week/10 days of this month (6/3 - 6/13) but wetter. Beyond there (6/28) stuck up / more cut off ULL antics may invade the area to end June and the first few days of July. Need to watch if this is more north of previous two instances which would mean wetter. should the WAR move west and push the weakness north, itll also bring the sustained warmth and ridging that is building into the Plains and GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 Cool down; 6/13: NYC: 75/59 (-4) EWR: 77/58 (-4) LGA: 77/60 (-3) JFK: 73/59 (-3) TTN: 74/57 (-4) 6/14 NYC: 75/52(-6) EWR: 75/53 (-8) LGA: 75/55 (-7) JFK: 71/54 (-7) TTN: 75/52 (-6) 6/15: NYC: 75/59 (-5) EWR: 75/56 (-7) LGA: 77/62 (-2) JFK: 73/56 (-5) TTN: 75/52 (-7) 6/16: NYC: 78/60 (-3) EWR: 78/57 (-5) LGA: 80/63 (-1) JFK: 76/58 (-4) TTN: 76/53 (-6) 6/17: NYC: 78/60 (-3) EWR: 80/60 (-3) LGA: 79/63 (-2) JFK: 80/58 (-2) TTN: 76/55 (-5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 Had a light shower 0.03" ...68° currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 12 hours ago, jm1220 said: Crazy how the heat has been shooting right over us like this. Surprised no heat advisories in NNE. Already 92 degrees in Northern Maine before noon. ESTCOURT STATION 4ESE MAWS, ME. ESCM1 (HADS) 18 Jun 11:45 am 92 WSW 1 30.01 30.87 0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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