dmillz25 Posted June 14, 2020 Share Posted June 14, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: LGA has been our only major station to reach 100 degrees in recent years along with several others in New England. But the rest of our major sites haven’t made it to 100 since the 2010-2013 period. Probably has something to do with the record NEPAC warming that began in 2013-2014. Most of our big warm ups in recent years have come with record high dew points and more onshore flow. Seems like the strong -PDO in 2010-2013 lead to record drought in the Southern Plains and more westerly flow here. Most recent 100 degree days at stations other and LGA EWR...2013 NYC....2012 JFK.....2013 ISP.......2011 BDR....2011 HPN....2010 FRG.....2011 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 2019 100 0 2018 98 0 2017 101 0 2016 99 0 2015 95 0 2014 93 0 2013 100 0 2012 101 0 2011 104 0 2010 103 0 Do we have a -PDO right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 14, 2020 Share Posted June 14, 2020 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: With the changes that starting occurring over the Pacific just after the beginning of this month, I don’t think we will escape heat and humidity. Those changes have started a hemispheric pattern change that is evolving. One will probably see a transition toward sustained warmer than normal conditions get underway during the third and fourth weeks this month in this region. Should the emerging drought deepen, there will be the potential for some severe bouts of heat in July and perhaps August. sounds like aummer time has arrived...happens every year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 14, 2020 Share Posted June 14, 2020 26 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Do we have a -PDO right now? It’s currently a bit more neutral than recent summers. But there is still plenty of NEPAC SST warmth. So nothing like the impressive -PDO cold ring we had in 2010-2013. 6-12-2020 6-12....2014 to 2019 6-12....2010 to 2013 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 The day started with unseasonably cool temperatures. Low temperatures included: Albany: 43° Allentown: 48° Binghamton: 39° (old record: 41°, 1978) Boston: 53° Bridgeport: 52° Islip: 53° New York City: 54° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 56° Poughkeepsie: 43° (tied record set in 1978 and tied in 1979) Scranton: 44° White Plains: 46° (tied record set in 1979) Temperatures will remain below normal through the middle of this week with delightful sun-filled days, low humidity, and a continued absence of summer-like heat. However, the probability of a major pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions beginning during the closing 10 days of June has continued to increase. Afterward, the warm pattern could lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -8.44 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.010. On June 13, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.997 (RMM). The June 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.889. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 72.5degs., or just Normal. Month to date is +2.2[71.4]. Should be +1.4[71.8] by the 23rd. 62* at 6am, clear. 68* by 10am, cirrus 69* about Noon. 65* at 2pm (but more sun now) 69* by 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 While its been a warmer than average first two weeks of June, the highest departures have been over the Central US. The greatest warmth looks to remain to our west through much of this week. But a piece should come east by next weekend. Main question will be how much onshore flow we will have at the time of the warm up. All models indicating at least some SE flow at that time. EWR...+2.6 NYC....+2.2 LGA....+3.6 JFK....+1.1 BDR...+1.9 ISP.....+2.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 52 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 Up to 69 off a low of 50. High clouds moving in from the south. Overnight guidance continues overall onshore barrage through the week with Thu likely being the overcast day. Warm things starting on Friday but may take till Sat PM before flow fully goes SW. By Sunday we should see the heat (possibly strong heat) come in and continue into early the following week. Overall warm and possibly stormy from 6/25 on with more expansive very strong heat building into the PLains / GL perhaps cycling back into the East by months end and into the start of July. Ridge looks cnetered into the Plains so would imagine a stormier warm pattern.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 23 hours ago, SACRUS said: Cool down; 6/13: NYC: 75/59 (-4) EWR: 77/58 (-4) LGA: 77/60 (-3) JFK: 73/59 (-3) TTN: 74/57 (-4) 6/14 NYC: 75/52(-6) EWR: 75/53 (-8) LGA: 75/55 (-7) JFK: 71/54 (-7) TTN: 75/52 (-6) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 WAR signal showing up on the ensembles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 53 minutes ago, forkyfork said: WAR signal showing up on the ensembles You wonder if sometime in the next 2 weeks the Plains ridge and WAR could merge for some impressive ridging and maybe record heat somewhere. There is a tendency for ridging to go north and easterly flow, at some point that will bring the WAR west too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 Another great day sun starting to win out over the clouds and a comfortable 72 / 51 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 12z Euro continuing the onshore flow into next weekend now. Big change from just a few runs ago. New run Old run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 15, 2020 Author Share Posted June 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: 12z Euro continuing the onshore flow into next weekend now. Big change from just a few runs ago. New run Old run Not shocked to see this. The mid-longer range heat on the models have been more fantasy then reality. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 looking like another summer of high dewpoints and muted high temps yet still averaging above normal. probably lots of nearly saturated skinny cape days with flash flooding 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 29 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Not shocked to see this. The mid-longer range heat on the models have been more fantasy then reality. Yeah, just a continuation of the onshore flow pattern that dominated the second half of May. Looks Ike the models have been rushing warm ups when there is a cooler pool off the East Coast. Seems like the reverse of the models continuously underestimating the WAR in recent years when that record warm pool was out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 15, 2020 Author Share Posted June 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, just a continuation of the onshore flow pattern that dominated the second half of May. Looks Ike the models have been rushing warm ups when there is a cooler pool off the East Coast. Seems like the reverse of the models continuously underestimating the WAR in recent years when that record warm pool was out there. No different then mid-long range fantasy snowstorms in the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: No different then mid-long range fantasy snowstorms in the winter. Truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 Temperatures will remain below normal through midweek with delightful sun-filled days, low humidity, and a continued absence of summer-like heat. Late this week or this weekend, a major pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions will likely begin to evolve. Initially, extreme heat is unlikely. The warm pattern could then lock in for July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -22.42 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.010. On June 14, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.221 (RMM). The June 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.991. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 16, 2020 Author Share Posted June 16, 2020 The last several runs of the GFS have been very active going forward and the 00z continues the theme. Temps will probably remain on the warmer side but nothing to hot with plenty of showers/storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 73degs., or 0.5degs. AN. Month to date is +1.8[71.1]. Should be +1.4[71.8] by the 24th. 62* here at 6am., clear. 63* at 6:30am. 68* by 9am. 70* by 10:00am. Down to 67* by Noon. 69* by 2pm. GFS ENS has the second half of June at +2.0[75.0]. So we end up at 73 and about +2 for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 Cancel the 90’s for this weekend. Cutoff just lingers too long 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 45 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Cancel the 90’s for this weekend. Cutoff just lingers too long Very unusual year with both snowstorms and heatwaves going to our north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 41 minutes ago, bluewave said: Very unusual year with both snowstorms and heatwaves going to our north. Eastern Canada in the upper 90s while we are 20 degrees cooler. What the hell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 Down to 53 last night another good sleeping weather kinda evening. Up to 68. Clouds and showers about 80 - 100 miles south with strong NE flow keeping it dry and sunny. Overnight runs says the onshore flow doesnt want to go as they had been morphing to since monday ala - ate May. Overall onshore flow becoming more southerly this weekend as the cut off heads to PA rather than offshore. More steamy (perhaps stormy) than hot Fri - Sun . It does look to get closer to 90 by Mon - Wed with 850s expected to rise to 16-18.on a more sw flow. Stormier pattern looks to be taking shape by 6/25 as another strong ridge builds into the plains and moves into the GL, have to watch more ULL cutoff city 6/25 - 6/30 but month should end on a steamier note. Perhaps the WAR will build in by early July pushing the weakness in the northeast into Canda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 Cool down; 6/13: NYC: 75/59 (-4) EWR: 77/58 (-4) LGA: 77/60 (-3) JFK: 73/59 (-3) TTN: 74/57 (-4) 6/14 NYC: 75/52(-6) EWR: 75/53 (-8) LGA: 75/55 (-7) JFK: 71/54 (-7) TTN: 75/52 (-6) 6/15: NYC: 75/59 (-5) EWR: 75/56 (-7) LGA: 77/62 (-2) JFK: 73/56 (-5) TTN: 75/52 (-7) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Eastern Canada in the upper 90s while we are 20 degrees cooler. What the hell It’s the pattern. Called this Friday morning: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Very unusual year with both snowstorms and heatwaves going to our north. They took are snow, now they can have are heat! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 6 hours ago, uofmiami said: It’s the pattern. Called this Friday morning: 5 hours ago, Allsnow said: They took are snow, now they can have are heat! We have seen the subtropical high extending further to the north in recent years. Once the ridge axis gets north of 40N, our area gets southeast flow. July 2018 featured very humid onshore flow here. BTV went +5.4 with their first 80 degree minimum. LGA only had a 79 minimum and a +2.4 . The onshore flow in late May kept the all-time record highs to our north. So the next several days will feature the warmest temperatures staying north again with onshore flow here. July 2018 5-28-20 More of the same next several days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 Cooling off quickly in nw NJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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