June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[forkyfork]

the easterly flow pattern might end by wednesday if the cutoff sinks far enough to the south

[doncat]

Just 0.10" here today, 1.45" for month...High temp of 83°.

[Cfa]

0.44” here. 1.55” for the month.

Cloudy and windy pretty much all day here, high of only 73.

[STORMANLI]

0.29" in today's thunderstorm.

June total in at 2.11"

South Commack

 

On 6/5/2020 at 10:41 PM, PB-99 said:

1.35 inches of rain so far and just pouring here.

Colts Neck.

 

[uofmiami]

.18" in Syosset & .15" in Muttontown, missed the heavier rains.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler than today. Another unseasonably cool air mass will move into the region this weekend. Temperatures on Sunday morning could be in the 50s in New York City and Newark and 40s in some of the suburbs.

However, the probability of a major pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions beginning in the third or fourth week of June has increased in recent days. Afterward, the warm pattern change could lock in for July, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The SOI was +0.98 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.495.

On June 10, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.222 (RMM). The June 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.510.

April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures.

This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°.

 

[qg_omega]

Better pool day?  Saturday right?

[uofmiami]

19 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Better pool day?  Saturday right?

Saturday looks better, especially from a temperature perspective.  NBM has more clouds for Sunday & cooler.

[NJwx85]

Remember the good old days when cutoff lows on the East coast didn’t trend hundreds of miles West and it would actually rain for 2 or 3 days straight as modeled three days out?

[doncat]

First 70° low temp of year at 72°.

[Allsnow]

It’s going to get dry 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 69degs., or 3degs. BN.

Month to date is  +3.3[72.0].        Should be about +0.6[70.8] by the 20th.

What happened to the GFS?       Was it tweaked overnight?       It has lost all the 90's and 100's depicted in the last three weeks worth of runs! LOL

69* here at 6am, mostly clear.    70* at 7am.     74* by 9am.        75* by Noon.        81* by 3pm.        84* at 4:30pm.

Another beach day here for me.        There was a protest demonstration (noisy but peaceful) on boardwalk involving 200 marchers around 2:30pm.

 

[Allsnow]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Cool and dry onshore flow pattern right into next week. Looks like the highest temperature departures with next weekend warm up go north of us. Models hinting at a big +PNA for late June.

 

 

 

 

Yep. Congrats VT on the heat. This is exactly like May when DCA was 70 And VT 90

[dWave]

less humid but warm morning, sunny, 79

[SACRUS]

Queue the Rascals  - It's A Beautiful Morning, 79 / 55

0.24 in the bucket yesterday as the heaviest amounts stayed south towards Ocean country in NJ>

ULL looks to be going south similar to the May progression.  Onshore flow on the go Sun - Thu next week.  I do think with enough sun (despite the easterly flow) temps will over perform Mon Tue. But Wed and Thu may be cloudier and potential misty.  Beyond there thing warm up by Friday (6/19) with Sat (6/20) - Tue (6/23) possible first heatwave potential as the big heat building in the plains and GL overspreads the Northeast.  Way out there as we close June with an eye on Jul it looks overall warmer as WC ridging again pushes east into the Rockies / Plains...

[SACRUS]

Stations thru the first 11 days

LGA: +4.7
EWR: +4.5
NYC:  +3.3
TTN: +2.9
JFK: +2.1
 

[uofmiami]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Queue the Rascals  - It's A Beautiful Morning, 79 / 55

0.24 in the bucket yesterday as the heaviest amounts stayed south towards Ocean country in NJ>

ULL looks to be going south similar to the May progression.  Onshore flow on the go Sun - Thu next week.  I do think with enough sun (despite the easterly flow) temps will over perform Mon Tue. But Wed and Thu may be cloudier and potential misty.  Beyond there thing warm up by Friday (6/19) with Sat (6/20) - Tue (6/23) possible first heatwave potential as the big heat building in the plains and GL overspreads the Northeast.  Way out there as we close June with an eye on Jul it looks overall warmer as WC ridging again pushes east into the Rockies / Plains...

I don't see the heatwave at all for next weekend, heat is getting muted now on Euro ensembles around NYC.  Chris showed this as well.  Montreal will probably get up into the 90s while we sit in the mid 80s down here.  It's a struggle to get to 90 in NYC this year so far.

[doncat]

36 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Stations thru the first 11 days

LGA: +4.7
EWR: +4.5
NYC:  +3.3
TTN: +2.9
JFK: +2.1
 

Yeah it's been a warm month...Maybe just one 90° day, but plenty of mid 80's type stuff...average highs are still a touch below 80°.

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, doncat said:

Yeah it's been a warm month...Maybe just one 90° day, but plenty of mid 80's type stuff...average highs are still a touch below 80°.

A lot of that will get knocked down in the days ahead.

We'll see what happens post easterly flow. 

[dmillz25]

Up to 85 here

[dmillz25]

87 for the high

[forkyfork]

unless there's severe blocking the default is above normal

[Cfa]

Topped out at 86 here.

Average high for the first 12 days of June is 80.6°, several degrees AN.

[LoboLeader1]

Gorgeous here, currently 80 under a partly sunny sky. VT and Canada can keep the heat.

[psv88]

2 hours ago, Cfa said:

Topped out at 86 here.

Average high for the first 12 days of June is 80.6°, several degrees AN.

86 here as well. Been a summery week for sure. 

[donsutherland1]

Another unseasonably cool air mass will move into the region this weekend. Temperatures on Sunday morning could be in the 50s in New York City and Newark and 40s in some of the suburbs. Temperatures will likely remain below normal through the middle of next week.

However, the probability of a major pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions beginning in the third or fourth week of June has increased in recent days. Afterward, the warm pattern change could lock in for July, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The SOI was +12.72 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.417.

On June 11, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.122 (RMM). The June 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.221.

April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures.

This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°.

[MJO812]

Beautiful  weather this week with temps in the 70s 

[JerseyWx]

I'm impressed by how cool it will be at night IMBY coming up.  Forecast of 48 tomorrow night, and then 50's straight through next Wednesday.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 68.5degs., or 3.5degs. BN 

Month to date is  +3.5[72.4].          Should be about  +0.7[70.8] by the 21st .

62* here at 6am and clear.         66* by Noon.

All three main models agree now that something big will happen T-wise after the 18th.

[bluewave]

Cooler easterly flow pattern developing right into next week. Warm up will begin to our north later next week as we still hold on to the onshore flow. Next chance of 90 degrees or higher looks like next weekend as the flow becomes more S to SW.