June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[doncat]

88/67 split today.

[SACRUS]

6/10

New Brnswck: 91
PHL: 91
TTN: 90
ACY: 87
BLM: 86
EWR: 86
TEB: 86
NYC: 85
LGA: 85
ISP: 79
JFK: 79

[donsutherland1]

Under abundant sunshine, the temperature again rose into the 80s across the region. Somewhat cooler conditions with some showers and thundershowers are likely tomorrow.

No excessive heat is likely through at least the first half of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, the probability of a long-range pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions beginning in the third or fourth week of June has increased in recent days. Afterward, the warm pattern change could lock in for July, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The SOI was -3.45 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.349.

On June 9, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.515 (RMM). The June 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.614.

April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures.

This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°.

[doncat]

A pretty good +3° temp departure first 10 days.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under abundant sunshine, the temperature again rose into the 80s across the region. Somewhat cooler conditions with some showers and thundershowers are likely tomorrow.

No excessive heat is likely through at least the first half of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, the probability of a long-range pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions beginning in the third or fourth week of June has increased in recent days. Afterward, the warm pattern change could lock in for July, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The SOI was -3.45 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.349.

On June 9, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.515 (RMM). The June 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.614.

April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures.

This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°.

it does sound somewhat like 1995, where summer warmth was mostly in July and August.

 

Either way I strongly think that this summer will take a back seat to the scorcher next summer will be.

 

[Rtd208]

The 00z GFS continues to keep most the heaviest rains with the potential ULL/cutoff next week to our south and west but does bring in some heavier rains for a time in mid/late week before moving out.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 70degs., or 1.5degs. BN.

Month to date is  +2.9[71.5].         Should be +0.9[70.8] by the 19th.

66* here and overcast at 6am.       70* at 9am.         72* at 11am.       back to 70* at Noon.         73* by 3pm           79* at 6pm.

The whole country could be burning up during the last 12 days of the month according to the GFS and others.       

[SACRUS]

Tropical morning with warm humid breeze and clouds 79/72.  Should clear out by the early afternoon and see a few nice days to end the week and start the weekend.

Sunday (6/14) - Fri / Sat (6/19-20) ULL meanders around the east coast.  Will need to see if we can clear the cutoff out sooner and where the heaviest rain targets.  ECM would be south and GFS would be west, still looks like Wed is the wetter day.  Beyond there big heat continues to build into the Rockies-Plains and GL which seems to want to overspread east by 6/21.  Does look like it could be a warm to hot but plenty of storms activity.  

 

 

[gravitylover]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it does sound somewhat like 1995, where summer warmth was mostly in July and August.

 

Either way I strongly think that this summer will take a back seat to the scorcher next summer will be.

 

Nah think... 2020. We're bound to have  some volcanic disaster that will make next year the year without a summer. It will most likely happen when the world locks down again in December due to the next wave of the virus so there won't be mass extermination of human life because we'll mostly be at home. It's 2020 you have to think plague, storms, locusts and other earthly disasters...

[donsutherland1]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it does sound somewhat like 1995, where summer warmth was mostly in July and August.

 

Either way I strongly think that this summer will take a back seat to the scorcher next summer will be.

 

I agree with respect to something like but perhaps warmer than 1995. If the 11year solar cycle would suggest a very warm summer next year. 

[uncle W]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree with respect to something like but perhaps warmer than 1995. If the 11year solar cycle would suggest a very warm summer next year. 

most of the summers that preceded the 11 year cycle were cooler than average in the NE...1987 was a warm summer but the heat started in late May...a lot of those years had early heat like 1965 and 1976...

[uncle W]

1954 was a summer before the 11 year cycle that had two heat waves in July reaching 100 degree in NYC...

[Rtd208]

Another very uncomfortable day out there.

Current temp 83/DP 73/RH 73%

[qg_omega]

Any real rain today?

[Allsnow]

15 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Any real rain today?

Looks like the rain southwest of Phl will get up here this afternoon. Models have most of the rain effecting the jersey shore and LI 

[Rtd208]

It looks like the 12z GFS is now in line with the 00z Euro with the ULL/cutoff heavy rain for next week, it really doesn't get much rainfall above the M/D line.

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

It looks like the 12z GFS is now in line with the 00z Euro with the ULL/cutoff heavy rain for next week, it really doesn't get much rainfall above the M/D line.

Yep. We probably get some rain as it lifts out towards the end of the week. Father’s Day weekend might be are next shot of 90’s 

[bluewave]

Flash flood warning in NJ with those training cells moving NE. Radar estimates of 1.80”max in the last hour.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Flash flood warning in NJ with those training cells moving NE. Radar estimates of 1.80”max in the last hour.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Models are going to nail the jersey shore and LI jackpot for rain 

[PB-99]

Pouring here at the office in Red Bank.

[Snowlover11]

any rain at this point is welcomed, li is getting nailed, but all that rain in a short period is no bueno.

[winterwx21]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like the rain southwest of Phl will get up here this afternoon. Models have most of the rain effecting the jersey shore and LI 

Very disappointing here. Just some light rain that didn't even deliver a tenth of an inch. I'll have to water the vegetable garden this afternoon.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Very disappointing here. Just some light rain that didn't even deliver a tenth of an inch. I'll have to water the vegetable garden this afternoon.

Yep. Going to need to start watering this weekend. Looks dry for a while with the cutoff going south of us. 

[dWave]

Nothing here...looks like the Rockaways have been getting some relentless heavy rain

[bluewave]

1.00 amounts as far north as Long Beach now. Several spots in Monmouth County with 2.00 estimates.

 

 

 

[Cfa]

Just started raining here, hopefully we get a good soaking.

[Rjay]

Been raining fairly hard for almost an hour at work.  A couple good cg's.   Radar estimates between .5-1"

[psv88]

Pouring here with thunder. We have had some decent rains past few weeks, so things arent too dry. 

[jm1220]

Some pretty heavy rain here but tapering down. SW of here looks like it got upwards of 1”. 

[bluewave]

Another extended cool easterly flow pattern starts on Saturday.  High pressure builds to the north and keeps the cutoff rains south of us. So New England will continue to see an expansion of dry conditions.