June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Tatamy]

Violet lightning off to my west

[NJwx85]

Looks like just some elevated convection. Good amount of lightning though.

[Tatamy]

More violet lightning.  Impressive display ongoing out here.

[weathermedic]

Nice looking line of storms in eastern PA and southern NJ (bowing segment) heading northeast. City and Long Island should get in some of the action if it holds together. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 71degs., or just Normal.

65* here at 6am., overcast, streets wet.        69* here at 9am.      75* by Noon.            79* by 2pm.     72* by 4:30pm (Raining)

The EURO ENS has just one 80-Degree Day (this Sat.-82*), during the next two weeks.         The next period to watch is around June 18, for a heat breakout.

[gravitylover]

For how thoroughly soaked and soggy everything is you'd think we had inches of rain but nope, 1/4" of precip and many hours of fog is the culprit. For a year that's actually relatively dry it has been very wet, there have been more wet days than the numbers would lead one to think. 

[Stormlover74]

Today's threat really fell apart

 

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Newark on track for a top 10 latest first 90 degree day.

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	First	Value	Last	Value	Difference
#1 1972	07-02 (1972)	91	09-17 (1972)	93	76
#2 1958	06-26 (1958)	92	09-26 (1958)	90	91
#3 2003	06-23 (2003)	90	08-27 (2003)	90	64
#4 1963	06-19 (1963)	90	08-09 (1963)	92	50
#5 2014	06-17 (2014)	91	09-06 (2014)	95	80
1935	06-17 (1935)	90	08-13 (1935)	90	56
#6 1982	06-16 (1982)	90	08-05 (1982)	90	49
#7 1954	06-13 (1954)	90	08-25 (1954)	91	72
#8 1983	06-12 (1983)	92	09-20 (1983)	92	99
#9 1997	06-10 (1997)	91	08-17 (1997)	94	67
1967	06-10 (1967)	91	08-18 (1967)	90	68
#10 1952	06-09 (1952)	90	09-13 (1952)	94	95

weighted on the cooler side for overall summer averages. 67, 82, 97, 52, 72.  Exceptions 54, 83, 58.  More normal 2014, 35

 

[SACRUS]

Remnants of Cristobal look to go  right up the Mississippi  next 5 days.   Once past today's storms and showers it looks dry again till mid next week.   Ridge builds Mon - Wed a bit too north with flow going more northerly and onshore.  Monday could be a sneaky shot at 90 in the warmer inland spots but more onshore by Tue/Wed ahead of the front.  Agree with CIK that heights look to flatten then rise on/around 6/16.  Interesting pattern right on near normal slightly warmer and will see if wetter overall can continue.  

 

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Today's threat really fell apart

 

Nice storm last night with heavy rain and thunder. Today looks more a flood threat then anything else.

[Allsnow]

[Stormlover74]

I think ewr sneaks in a 90 tomorrow with enough sun

[bluewave]

Be interesting to see if the Christobal ET can set the new record lowest pressure in Wisconsin for June. It could cause a wave breaking event that results in a cooler pattern here in mid-June.

 

 

[Rtd208]

Flash Flood Watch in effect here thru this evening.

Picked up 0.49" of rain so far today.

Current temp 77/DP 70/RH 78%

[psv88]

Sultry out there, 78/70

[Brian5671]

storms firing in PA near philly what a week there!

[Rtd208]

Current temp 83/DP 71/RH 68%

[Cfa]

81/73 with sunshine and occasional sprinkles, feels tropical.

[CIK62]

Getting scraped by some cell to my south.      Rain only so far.      Two cells or more to go yet, however.      Most flood statements were south of us anyway and they may be right.

[SI Mailman]

Torrential rains here, had some thunder and lightning leading into it.

[NJwx85]

Sun is out here lol 

[doncat]

82/68 temp split today...0.35" rain.

[Rjay]

Every thunderstorm that headed this way fell apart this week

[etudiant]

Why is it that the forecasts appear so disconnected from real life.

Here in NYC, the various (suitably hedged) forecasts were for close to a half inch of rain and thundershowers.

A glance at the evolving weather shown on the various radar tracks indicated that the main event would be well south of the city. But the forecast remained the same. Why?

[Cold Pool]

0.92" today here in Mamaroneck.  Parts of lower Westchester have been missing out for most of the week, so that last shot was nice.  

[donsutherland1]

Sunshine will return tomorrow and readings will likely rise well into the 80s. Somewhat cooler air should follow for Sunday and Monday.

No excessive heat is likely through at least the first two weeks of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, there are emerging hints of a long-range pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions perhaps beginning in the third or fourth week of June. Afterward, the pattern change could lock in for July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around May 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. ENSO Region anomalies have continued to cool into the end of May. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has continued to increase.

The SOI was -46.68 today. That was the lowest SOI figure since February 17, 2017 when the SOI was -51.97.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.662.

On June 4, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.842 (RMM). The June 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.772.

April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures.

This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June month. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East.

 

[PB-99]

1.35 inches of rain so far and just pouring here.

Colts Neck.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.78" of rain for the day.

Current temp 72/DP 70/RH 94%

[NJwx85]

Had a few sprinkles today and that was it. Heaviest rain fell overnight last night into this morning. That was it. Sun was actually out here most of the afternoon. Only lightning I saw this week was from the decaying squall line Thursday.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 71degs., or about 1deg. AN.

70* here at 6am(FOG<0.3miles)   71* by 9am and visibility  >7 miles.         78* by Noon.

All three major ENS outputs are indicating today as the warmest day for the next two weeks.