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June Discussion


RUNNAWAYICEBERG
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Definitely feelin' nastier with torridity out there,.. and according to Mesowest/URL sourcing ... DPs are nearing 70 at most ASOS', while temps eclipse 80.  KFIT is 84/68 and KASH is 83/70 .. These are 8 deg temp bounces this last hour. 

Early cu streets are are not showing as robust turrets as previous mornings... Maybe we've finally normalized those lapse rates I was mentioning a while ago :/  was hoping for more cloud photogenetics.. we'll see. 

 

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4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

SNE looks very hit or miss. Can’t even generate a line . 

Been very hit or miss lately. 

It's funny the past few days seeing CoCoRAHS amounts of 1-3" in some spots but then surrounded by literally nothing. 

Like tiny little footprints of inches of water.

Untitled.jpg.d1a55452c8812a009ba4ff37397ffe41.jpg

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9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

more ulvl low cutoff crap. I'm getting so pissed off with this ****. Can't get severe setups with that garbage hanging around. The atmosphere is such a trolling POS tease. 

This AFD seems to speak your language even if it leaves you wanting

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

There are some modest changes in the synoptic environment today.
The 850mb ridge axis has pushed ewd toward coastal New England
as a slow moving mid-level trough translates ewd across the
Great Lakes region. This allows for modest mid-level height
falls across our region this afternoon, along with weakly
cyclonic flow aloft. Also noting that sfc-6km bulk shear
increases to 15-20kts. While not a dramatic increase, there is
some better potential for multicellular convective storms rather
than strictly short-lived "pulse" storms that have characterized
the past couple of days. Storms should still initiate along
higher terrain areas with minimal low-level convergence, but
will have a better potential to move away from the higher
terrain with ENE storm motions around 10 mph. Have shown PoPs
30-50% this afternoon into early this evening, highest across
the Adirondacks and near the spine of the Green Mtns. Hot PBL
temps combined with dewpoints in the mid 60s should yield SBCAPE
values of 1000-2000 J/kg. Given moderate CAPE, somewhat better
shear, and better expected storm coverage, continued to include
gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall wording with any
storms this afternoon into early this evening. Should also see a
bit stronger surface winds today...generally S-SW at 10-15 mph,
with a few gusts up to 20-25 mph in the Champlain Valley.
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BTV is at 92f.  This is the first time ever in June that BTV has been 90+ for 6 straight days beating the record set yesterday.  2nd longest BTV streak ever.

from the morning AFD:

 
Quote

CLIMATE... Record high temperatures were set Monday (6/22) at KBTV, K1V4, KMSS, KPBG, and atop Mt. Mansfield. Please see Record Event Report for details.

...

At KBTV, Monday (6/22) represented our 5th straight 90+ degree day. This sets the longest stretch of consecutive 90+ degree days in June. If BTV reaches 90 degrees again today, the stretch of 6 days of 90+ degrees will tie for the second longest on record. Already for 2020, BTV has recorded eight 90 degree days through Monday (6/22). Records at BTV date back to 1883.

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4 minutes ago, klw said:

This AFD seems to speak your language even if it leaves you wanting

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1


There are some modest changes in the synoptic environment today.
The 850mb ridge axis has pushed ewd toward coastal New England
as a slow moving mid-level trough translates ewd across the
Great Lakes region. This allows for modest mid-level height
falls across our region this afternoon, along with weakly
cyclonic flow aloft. Also noting that sfc-6km bulk shear
increases to 15-20kts. While not a dramatic increase, there is
some better potential for multicellular convective storms rather
than strictly short-lived "pulse" storms that have characterized
the past couple of days. Storms should still initiate along
higher terrain areas with minimal low-level convergence, but
will have a better potential to move away from the higher
terrain with ENE storm motions around 10 mph. Have shown PoPs
30-50% this afternoon into early this evening, highest across
the Adirondacks and near the spine of the Green Mtns. Hot PBL
temps combined with dewpoints in the mid 60s should yield SBCAPE
values of 1000-2000 J/kg. Given moderate CAPE, somewhat better
shear, and better expected storm coverage, continued to include
gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall wording with any
storms this afternoon into early this evening. Should also see a
bit stronger surface winds today...generally S-SW at 10-15 mph,
with a few gusts up to 20-25 mph in the Champlain Valley.

could def see some small hail along with strong wind gusts with the stronger storms 

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12 minutes ago, klw said:

BTV is at 92f.  This is the first time ever in June that BTV has been 90+ for 6 straight days beating the record set yesterday.  2nd longest BTV streak ever.

from the morning AFD:



 

This is some real high end heat for the BTV CWA.

MVL got to 88F so far but rain cooled air has it at 82F now.  Still plenty of time to recover to 90F with these temps aloft.  We are also going for day 6.

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10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro pretty much caved to the GFS next week and will probably lose Saturday too. Went from  100s in CT for 7/1 at 12z to 70s at 00z. 

I find it interesting that the GEFs tele's are hot, but the GFS operational is fighting it's own ensemble mean and has been ever since the PNA started tipping negative spanning four night's worth ...  It just refuses...  

So, perhaps this is one of those situations where the operational runs agree and the tele's/ens means then go the other direction - happens ...

Yet, the GFS and GGEM operational solutions are just weirdly anomalous with that 'hemispheric tucking' pattern mid/ua/ vortex boring backward toward Pittsburg nearing July like that.. With overarching heights nearing 592 dm over southern James Bay/N of lake superior...  I'm willing to sell on this latter synoptic construct and then tone down Euro heat as a compromise? 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I find it interesting that the GEFs tele's are hot, but the GFS operational is fighting it's own ensemble mean and has been ever since the PNA started tipping negative spanning four night's worth ...  It just refuses...  

So, perhaps this is one of those situations where the operational runs agree and the tele's/ens means then go the other direction - happens ...

Yet, the GFS and GGEM operational solutions are just weirdly anomalous with that 'hemispheric tucking' pattern mid/ua/ vortex boring backward toward Pittsburg nearing July like that.. With overarching heights nearing 592 dm over southern James Bay/N of lake superior...  I'm willing to sell on this latter synoptic construct and then tone down Euro heat as a compromise? 

Last night’s euro op backed it in for next week as well. So I lean that route, but probably a modified version of it. 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Too afraid to put something out there to be judged and graded. Noted 

I don’t fall for your all or nothing traps. :lol:

Euro still hanging on for the weekend. Could be a warm night Sat night even if it’s just U80s/l90s during the day. 

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

BTV at 93F and climbing. 

This is comical at this point.  Putting up mid-90s daily like they grow on trees.

A little like 2018 up there with 6 straight days...minus the big dews this time around though.

Glad we didn’t live in BTV in 1944.

781BCC69-3F3A-4F56-8A3D-D45680D9685F.jpeg

 

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A little like 2018 up there with 6 straight days...minus the big dews this time around though.

Glad we didn’t live in BTV in 1944.

781BCC69-3F3A-4F56-8A3D-D45680D9685F.jpeg

 

Lol, 13 out of the first 17 days of August.....that looks like a huge BDL torch, nevermind BTV.

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A little like 2018 up there with 6 straight days...minus the big dews this time around though.

Glad we didn’t live in BTV in 1944.

781BCC69-3F3A-4F56-8A3D-D45680D9685F.jpeg

 

Holy shit ha. 

The one thing is for all the record heat it hasn’t triggered a heat advisory or product.

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