Torch Tiger Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Droughtstein A sprinkle ot two and that's basically it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 I'm seeing similarities in the current guidance ( for the next ~ 10 days ) to the last several summers ...really going back to 2010, where I'd say 2/3rds .. 3/4 of them did this. We'll see if this goes on to do it... but, those in the majority demoed early heat that collapsed into some sort of hemispheric anchored NW flow regime - uninspired heat the rest of the way. The extended ranges are moving a heat ridge to about Detroit, then... holding it in position while heights fall and erode it from the west side of its arc - the total evolution is that the ridge never gets here... and ends ups folding south under said permanent Maritime trough. Welcome to persistently ablating/shunting "big heat" SW of eastern Canada and New England included in that general geographic scope. it's in the present guidance... Not sure it will characterize the summer ...but I definitely saw that antic take place more times than not, over more summers than not, in the last 10 years. What we just had was "big heat" on the thermometers due to local enhancing of slope winds under a purified sky ... It really maximized and and made for big heat numbers ... but not really via the big heat pattern - it was wasn't antecedent in play. It's a bit of conjectural language ..sure, but most know of Sonoran heat release/ejection, and that air mass then ascends in latitude arcs over a continental pig ass heat ridge and then actually we get our hottest atmosphere at a regional all inclusive scope from a W or even NW trajectory out of a 24 C/850 mb 12z sounding over southern Ontario...etc... That's Aug 1975 and July 2012 (?) ... The recent heat didn't originate in that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 30, 2020 Author Share Posted May 30, 2020 22 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Heat wave begins June 8 Keep us posted on 06/08 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Keep us posted on 06/08 Keep model watching 9 days out and thinking it’s right . You did that all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 30, 2020 Author Share Posted May 30, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Keep model watching 9 days out and thinking it’s right . You did that all winter Keep making wishful forecasts based on visions. You do that like clockwork. How did the no snow after Feb turn out for you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Keep making wishful forecasts based on visions. You do that like clockwork. How did the no snow after Feb turn out for you? You do understand that’s a warm look there and will likely evolve even warmer as models shove things NE over time. Put the models away.. just once and try to think on your own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 30, 2020 Author Share Posted May 30, 2020 48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You do understand that’s a warm look there and will likely evolve even warmer as models shove things NE over time. Put the models away.. just once and try to think on your own It’s not a furnance like you’re visions are trapping you into. Trying looking at models, it helps to formulate a realistic expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s not a furnance like you’re visions are trapping you into. Trying looking at models, it helps to formulate a realistic expectation. I distinctly recall a post you had maybe 7-9 days ago where you said nice to see models show Coc k right thru that last week of May. How’d that work out for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 While thinking outside the box is generally good, I just don’t get the “put away the models” phrase. It comes off as this “Dorothy tap your shoes together three times and you’ll get the weather you desire” mentality. Weather models are what we do as a forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 30, 2020 Author Share Posted May 30, 2020 50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I distinctly recall a post you had maybe 7-9 days ago where you said nice to see models show Coc k right thru that last week of May. How’d that work out for you? Link where you recall this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 I think this year is a bonus. I remember many a spring that featured misery mist right up to the solstice 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s not a furnance like you’re visions are trapping you into. Trying looking at models, it helps to formulate a realistic expectation. I did get a chuckle out of the 18z GFS. It just laughed at DIT. Heat wave begins on the 8th here... Lasts for a couple days...June 10th. Then settles in for a real hot stretch for mid-June onward. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 Get June off on the right foot? Sunday Night A slight chance of rain and snow showers between 11pm and 1am, then a slight chance of snow showers after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 32. Windy, with a northwest wind 21 to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 I'm banking on my 90 day accuweather forecast!! Year without a summer? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I'm banking on my 90 day accuweather forecast!! Year without a summer? Uh .. wouldn’t that already have failed after a week of 85ers o’re 60 DPs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 9 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: You do understand that’s a warm look there and will likely evolve even warmer as models shove things NE over time. Put the models away.. just once and try to think on your own Very warm weather will be hard to sustain as ridge wants to park itself in the Midwest and then fold under SNE. You may get a 1-2 day heat spurt but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Uh .. wouldn’t that already have failed after a week of 85ers o’re 60 DPs Even 1816 had hot weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 31, 2020 Author Share Posted May 31, 2020 Man...that June 8th torch is scary. Not sure how we will survive it: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Man...that June 8th torch is scary. Not sure how we will survive it: That's beautiful. LOCK IT IN for rest of the summer please! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Man...that June 8th torch is scary. Not sure how we will survive it: Won't take much for the heat to leak into New England. It's right next door in South Carolina. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 Keep those posts coming. More to bump when they’re wrong just like the posts about last week of May being coc k. Can’t wait to bump these. June 12 or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Keep those posts coming. More to bump when they’re wrong just like the posts about last week of May being coc k. Can’t wait to bump these. June 12 or so What happened to the 8th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 1 minute ago, kdxken said: What happened to the 8th? He meant JULY 8th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, kdxken said: What happened to the 8th? The hot period is the 8th or 9th thru about the 11th. It’s always been that . Impossible to tell if it’s 2 days or 3 or even 4 at this point. But the signal is there , before a pullback to normal for a few days afterwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Keep those posts coming. More to bump when they’re wrong just like the posts about last week of May being coc k. Can’t wait to bump these. June 12 or so To be fair, everyone is just trolling you because the models don’t show what you say. The closer we get though it may seem more like throwing darts at dates on a calendar and then not budging when new data comes to light. It does bring a fun little competition vibe between KFS and the models though, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 6-10 day EPS average departures at 850... that ridge in the Midwest isn’t going anywhere so Kev is going to get his heat at some point. Might be like in the winter when a pattern change is delayed by a week but not denied. At some point that thing will probably roll into us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 31, 2020 Author Share Posted May 31, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Keep those posts coming. More to bump when they’re wrong just like the posts about last week of May being coc k. Can’t wait to bump these. June 12 or so Pretty big shift of the goalposts there. You literally dug them out of the ground, carried them over to a different stadium, and replanted them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 All the posts against the hot position in early June are weird. We just went through a hot week and now after 3 days we have the rest of this week above normal. Keep trying but I’m watching you... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: just like the posts about last week of May being coc k. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 7 minutes ago, kdxken said: Link? I’m not looking for them, but they’re in the Mayorch thread if you want to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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