Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

June Discussion


RUNNAWAYICEBERG
 Share

Recommended Posts

I'm seeing similarities in the current guidance ( for the next ~ 10 days ) to the last several summers ...really going back to 2010, where I'd say 2/3rds .. 3/4 of them did this. We'll see if this goes on to do it... but, those in the majority demoed early heat that collapsed into some sort of hemispheric anchored NW flow regime - uninspired heat the rest of the way.  The extended ranges are moving a heat ridge to about Detroit, then... holding it in position while heights fall and erode it from the west side of its arc - the total evolution is that the ridge never gets here... and ends ups folding south under said permanent Maritime trough.  Welcome to persistently ablating/shunting "big heat" SW of eastern Canada and New England included in that general geographic scope.  it's in the present guidance... Not sure it will characterize the summer ...but I definitely saw that antic take place more times than not, over more summers than not, in the last 10 years. 

What we just had was "big heat" on the thermometers due to local enhancing of slope winds under a purified sky ... It really maximized and and made for big heat numbers ... but not really via the big heat pattern - it was wasn't antecedent in play.

It's a bit of conjectural language ..sure, but most know of Sonoran heat release/ejection, and that air mass then ascends in latitude arcs over a continental pig ass heat ridge and then actually we get our hottest atmosphere at a regional all inclusive scope from a W or even NW trajectory out of a 24 C/850 mb 12z sounding over southern Ontario...etc... That's Aug 1975 and July 2012 (?) ... The recent heat didn't originate in that way. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Keep making wishful forecasts based on visions. You do that like clockwork. How did the no snow after Feb turn out for you? 

You do understand that’s a warm look there and will likely evolve even warmer as models shove things NE over time. Put the models away.. just once and try to think on your own 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You do understand that’s a warm look there and will likely evolve even warmer as models shove things NE over time. Put the models away.. just once and try to think on your own 

It’s not a furnance like you’re visions are trapping you into. Trying looking at models, it helps to formulate a realistic expectation. 

image.thumb.png.dbcfc41ac422e961cd926bcd076b2039.png

image.thumb.png.ba561ef386a27a99222bcbbccb51a3c4.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s not a furnance like you’re visions are trapping you into. Trying looking at models, it helps to formulate a realistic expectation. 

image.thumb.png.dbcfc41ac422e961cd926bcd076b2039.png

image.thumb.png.ba561ef386a27a99222bcbbccb51a3c4.png

I distinctly recall a post you had maybe 7-9 days ago where you said nice to see models show Coc k right thru that last week of May. How’d that work out for you?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

While thinking outside the box is generally good, I just don’t get the “put away the models” phrase.  It comes off as this “Dorothy tap your shoes together three times and you’ll get the weather you desire” mentality.  

Weather models are what we do as a forum.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s not a furnance like you’re visions are trapping you into. Trying looking at models, it helps to formulate a realistic expectation. 

I did get a chuckle out of the 18z GFS.  

It just laughed at DIT.  

Heat wave begins on the 8th here... 

034CDE0B-E0C3-47BD-9360-7354A924FE8A.thumb.png.1dbdeedbc70c20f35b1c033d643d6823.png

Lasts for a couple days...June 10th.

34A5DFFB-49A7-4779-B5E2-2C49976827C9.thumb.png.60c6f580a4d14ce865366a2340966ed0.png

Then settles in for a real hot stretch for mid-June onward. 

B81DD3C1-BEB2-41ED-8541-5345F8F42E83.thumb.png.63d3aa0479dcfe6216ad9fef9fd1c3f2.png

  • Like 3
  • Haha 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Get June off on the right foot? 

Sunday Night
A slight chance of rain and snow showers between 11pm and 1am, then a slight chance of snow showers after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 32. Windy, with a northwest wind 21 to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You do understand that’s a warm look there and will likely evolve even warmer as models shove things NE over time. Put the models away.. just once and try to think on your own 

Very warm weather will be hard to sustain as ridge wants to park itself in the Midwest and then fold under SNE. 

You may get a 1-2 day heat spurt but that's about it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Keep those posts coming. More to bump when they’re wrong just like the posts about last week of May being coc k. Can’t wait to bump these. June 12 or so

To be fair, everyone is just trolling you because the models don’t show what you say.  The closer we get though it may seem more like throwing darts at dates on a calendar and then not budging when new data comes to light.  

It does bring a fun little competition vibe between KFS and the models though, ha. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6-10 day EPS average departures at 850... that ridge in the Midwest isn’t going anywhere so Kev is going to get his heat at some point.  Might be like in the winter when a pattern change is delayed by a week but not denied.  

At some point that thing will probably roll into us. 

CECCB0F6-E9A0-457D-9F7C-CF234C52C123.thumb.png.9bbfc77493238565c356ebc29dddcb50.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Keep those posts coming. More to bump when they’re wrong just like the posts about last week of May being coc k. Can’t wait to bump these. June 12 or so

Pretty big shift of the goalposts there. You literally dug them out of the ground, carried them over to a different stadium, and replanted them. 

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...