powderfreak Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: Sell that GFS, Hard sell. Days and days of rain, haha. Upper level low just rains every afternoon next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: Sell that GFS, Hard sell. Gotta really watch using QPF/total precipitation maps in the summer. They're heavily skewed by convection and obviously since the models (well outside of the CAMS) don't resolve convection well they'll just show what looks like widespread precipitation when that isn't the case. Now...if there happened to be some type of synoptic weather system responsible for producing large-scale precipitation that's different. TBH, those maps are almost kinda useless in the summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 Guess I should pay attention to the weather and not the doom machine. Nice thunderstorms in RI and Mass, watched that build over my head, more CU forming right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: Gotta really watch using QPF/total precipitation maps in the summer. They're heavily skewed by convection and obviously since the models (well outside of the CAMS) don't resolve convection well they'll just show what looks like widespread precipitation when that isn't the case. Now...if there happened to be some type of synoptic weather system responsible for producing large-scale precipitation that's different. TBH, those maps are almost kinda useless in the summer. Oh for sure it's a lot more localized in the summer. But I do think there's more synoptic lift there with the upper level low pinwheeling energy around it than your generic convection with really small heavy rain footprints. I bet in that outcome you'd have small areas with more QPF than expected. That GFS run was a rainy week. This is the one time I think I lean with Kev though that you have to nod to drier out-comes until proven otherwise, which is a horrible way to forecast weather but hard to buck the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: This is the one time I think I lean with Kev though that you have to nod to drier out-comes until proven otherwise, which is a horrible way to forecast weather but hard to buck the trend. what you saying...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: So in SNE more then CNE? From 90 to SNH is zone where most rain falls. South of that depends on round two and if there is one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Oh for sure it's a lot more localized. But I do think there's more synoptic lift there with the upper level low than your generic convection with really small heavy rain footprints. That GFS run was a rainy week. This is the one time I think I lean with Kev though that you have to nod to drier out-comes until proven otherwise, which is a horrible way to forecast weather but hard to buck the trend. Even with next week...I'm not so sure there is a tremendous amount of lift with this thing. Not sure how widespread any precipitation will be. Certainly may be scattered enough to where more of an area has a chance for something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Guess I should pay attention to the weather and not the doom machine. Nice thunderstorms in RI and Mass, watched that build over my head, more CU forming right now Yeah, nice coastal boundary helped flare those up. Looks somewhat stationary too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Gotta really watch using QPF/total precipitation maps in the summer. They're heavily skewed by convection and obviously since the models (well outside of the CAMS) don't resolve convection well they'll just show what looks like widespread precipitation when that isn't the case. Now...if there happened to be some type of synoptic weather system responsible for producing large-scale precipitation that's different. TBH, those maps are almost kinda useless in the summer. Yes, There is not going to be widespread amounts unless its an organized low pressure system, Yes some may see those totals but who knows where they end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: Yes, There is not going to be widespread amounts unless its an organized low pressure system, Yes some may see those totals but who knows where they end up. Highest totals perhaps in the orographically favored areas though will depend on winds. I also wouldn't be surprised to see it weaken a bit more quickly than guidance shows. Perhaps Tuesday offers the best chance for anything more scattered-to-numerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Even with next week...I'm not so sure there is a tremendous amount of lift with this thing. Not sure how widespread any precipitation will be. Certainly may be scattered enough to where more of an area has a chance for something I think if the GFS was right with the ULL there would be some decent rainfall totals in narrow zones. Is it right? Probably not, ha. It's not a winter synoptic widespread precip, it rarely is in the summer, but I bet there'd be some narrow axis of heavy rain next week if this sat and spun for 3 days like it has. Hell it probably would end up more over NY State or something, but someone would get a nice drink. Dew points in the 60s it looks like, decent PWATs, if something got going I bet it would be slow moving and a few counties get drenched. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: Highest totals perhaps in the orographically favored areas though will depend on winds. I also wouldn't be surprised to see it weaken a bit more quickly than guidance shows. Perhaps Tuesday offers the best chance for anything more scattered-to-numerous. Ha, It could be right though as this area usually ends up getting 7-10'd lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: I think if the GFS was right with the ULL there would be some decent rainfall totals in narrow zones. Is it right? Probably not, ha. It's not a winter synoptic widespread precip, it rarely is in the summer, but I bet there'd be some narrow axis of heavy rain next week if this sat and spun for 3 days like it has. Hell it probably would end up more over NY State or something, but someone would get a nice drink. Having a deeper cold pool with this would help substantially...perhaps lapse rates will be steeper right in the vicinity of the low but might be a very narrow area. Outside of this they should be rather horrific actually. Even some better dynamics would help alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 Those winds on that H5 look would be a convection killer for here so i am not going to place much stock in seeing anything more then some scattered precip at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Those winds on that H5 look would be a convection killer for here so i am not going to place much stock in seeing anything more then some scattered precip at best. ?? It's only like 20kt at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Those winds on that H5 look would be a convection killer for here so i am not going to place much stock in seeing anything more then some scattered precip at best. I bet it evolves towards eastern NY, Berkshires, Litchfield Hills, W. CT area.... or maybe even further west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: ?? It's only like 20kt at H5. Out of the south with a cutoff, Sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I think it would be more eastern NY, Berkshires, Litchfield Hills, W. CT area. For sure, West is best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 As Ginx alluded to, it's been cool to watch these storms in SE areas form along the coastal/seabreeze boundary 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 Yeah it’s possible most of us see precious little qpf next 7 days. Euro kind of showed that over a larger region other than smaller zones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: This was in my memories today. RIP Messenger The only bigger grins he had were posting his obscure short range models and radar loops showing why he was going to jack and I was going to get screwed. RIP. In other news, 80/54. We COC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 0.18 in that shower that moved through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 Damn, heck of cell just popped over the Quabbin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Briz600 Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 nice .5 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 14 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: Damn, heck of cell just popped over the Quabbin. Fizzling a little. Looks like it will be a shade south of me anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, Briz600 said: nice .5 today Yeah that area seems to keep in the goods. You need it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 Ugh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 Looks like a Dry Saturday in NNE heading to Spruce peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 Wtf is this???? Been crawling around my floor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26, 2020 Share Posted June 26, 2020 Just trapped it under a cup. That thing is massive. Has huge wings but isn’t flying...just crawling. No clue how that got lnside. Can’t really see the body Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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