Typhoon Tip Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 Definitely feelin' nastier with torridity out there,.. and according to Mesowest/URL sourcing ... DPs are nearing 70 at most ASOS', while temps eclipse 80. KFIT is 84/68 and KASH is 83/70 .. These are 8 deg temp bounces this last hour. Early cu streets are are not showing as robust turrets as previous mornings... Maybe we've finally normalized those lapse rates I was mentioning a while ago :/ was hoping for more cloud photogenetics.. we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 Impressive how sharp the CU boundary is this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 Cumulous popping all around me hope we get something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 On 6/23/2020 at 11:54 AM, Damage In Tolland said: SNE looks very hit or miss. Can’t even generate a line . Expand Been very hit or miss lately. It's funny the past few days seeing CoCoRAHS amounts of 1-3" in some spots but then surrounded by literally nothing. Like tiny little footprints of inches of water. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 On 6/23/2020 at 10:33 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Today is 12 days straight of no rain here. Tomorrow’s front can’t even produce a line Expand Thursday looks pretty good for storms too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 On 6/23/2020 at 11:48 AM, CoastalWx said: Roaster Saturday? Expand Century Mark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 Gfs sucks for mid next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 On 6/23/2020 at 5:00 PM, weathafella said: Gfs sucks for mid next week... Expand more ulvl low cutoff crap. I'm getting so pissed off with this ****. Can't get severe setups with that garbage hanging around. The atmosphere is such a trolling POS tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 On 6/23/2020 at 5:00 PM, weathafella said: Gfs sucks .. Expand Fixed your post because everyone was thinking it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 On 6/23/2020 at 5:03 PM, weatherwiz said: more ulvl low cutoff crap. I'm getting so pissed off with this ****. Can't get severe setups with that garbage hanging around. The atmosphere is such a trolling POS tease. Expand This AFD seems to speak your language even if it leaves you wanting https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 There are some modest changes in the synoptic environment today. The 850mb ridge axis has pushed ewd toward coastal New England as a slow moving mid-level trough translates ewd across the Great Lakes region. This allows for modest mid-level height falls across our region this afternoon, along with weakly cyclonic flow aloft. Also noting that sfc-6km bulk shear increases to 15-20kts. While not a dramatic increase, there is some better potential for multicellular convective storms rather than strictly short-lived "pulse" storms that have characterized the past couple of days. Storms should still initiate along higher terrain areas with minimal low-level convergence, but will have a better potential to move away from the higher terrain with ENE storm motions around 10 mph. Have shown PoPs 30-50% this afternoon into early this evening, highest across the Adirondacks and near the spine of the Green Mtns. Hot PBL temps combined with dewpoints in the mid 60s should yield SBCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg. Given moderate CAPE, somewhat better shear, and better expected storm coverage, continued to include gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall wording with any storms this afternoon into early this evening. Should also see a bit stronger surface winds today...generally S-SW at 10-15 mph, with a few gusts up to 20-25 mph in the Champlain Valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 On 6/23/2020 at 4:34 PM, Whineminster said: Century Mark? Expand Sell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 BTV is at 92f. This is the first time ever in June that BTV has been 90+ for 6 straight days beating the record set yesterday. 2nd longest BTV streak ever. from the morning AFD: Quote CLIMATE... Record high temperatures were set Monday (6/22) at KBTV, K1V4, KMSS, KPBG, and atop Mt. Mansfield. Please see Record Event Report for details. ... At KBTV, Monday (6/22) represented our 5th straight 90+ degree day. This sets the longest stretch of consecutive 90+ degree days in June. If BTV reaches 90 degrees again today, the stretch of 6 days of 90+ degrees will tie for the second longest on record. Already for 2020, BTV has recorded eight 90 degree days through Monday (6/22). Records at BTV date back to 1883. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 On 6/23/2020 at 5:15 PM, klw said: This AFD seems to speak your language even if it leaves you wanting https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 There are some modest changes in the synoptic environment today. The 850mb ridge axis has pushed ewd toward coastal New England as a slow moving mid-level trough translates ewd across the Great Lakes region. This allows for modest mid-level height falls across our region this afternoon, along with weakly cyclonic flow aloft. Also noting that sfc-6km bulk shear increases to 15-20kts. While not a dramatic increase, there is some better potential for multicellular convective storms rather than strictly short-lived "pulse" storms that have characterized the past couple of days. Storms should still initiate along higher terrain areas with minimal low-level convergence, but will have a better potential to move away from the higher terrain with ENE storm motions around 10 mph. Have shown PoPs 30-50% this afternoon into early this evening, highest across the Adirondacks and near the spine of the Green Mtns. Hot PBL temps combined with dewpoints in the mid 60s should yield SBCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg. Given moderate CAPE, somewhat better shear, and better expected storm coverage, continued to include gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall wording with any storms this afternoon into early this evening. Should also see a bit stronger surface winds today...generally S-SW at 10-15 mph, with a few gusts up to 20-25 mph in the Champlain Valley. Expand could def see some small hail along with strong wind gusts with the stronger storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 On 6/23/2020 at 5:18 PM, klw said: BTV is at 92f. This is the first time ever in June that BTV has been 90+ for 6 straight days beating the record set yesterday. 2nd longest BTV streak ever. from the morning AFD: Expand This is some real high end heat for the BTV CWA. MVL got to 88F so far but rain cooled air has it at 82F now. Still plenty of time to recover to 90F with these temps aloft. We are also going for day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 Mansfield already up to 80F, old daily record was 78F. This is the 6th daily record max in a row. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 Day 4 of heatwave in CT with BDL at 90. I wonder if they can go right thru day 10 of 90 or above? Thursday and Friday will be close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 Euro pretty much caved to the GFS next week and will probably lose Saturday too. Went from 100s in CT for 7/1 at 12z to 70s at 00z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 On 6/23/2020 at 5:37 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Day 4 of heatwave in CT with BDL at 90. I wonder if they can go right thru day 10 of 90 or above? Thursday and Friday will be close Expand Hopefully 90F right through Feb. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 On 6/23/2020 at 5:42 PM, dendrite said: Euro pretty much caved to the GFS next week and will probably lose Saturday too. Went from 100s in CT for 7/1 at 12z to 70s at 00z. Expand I find it interesting that the GEFs tele's are hot, but the GFS operational is fighting it's own ensemble mean and has been ever since the PNA started tipping negative spanning four night's worth ... It just refuses... So, perhaps this is one of those situations where the operational runs agree and the tele's/ens means then go the other direction - happens ... Yet, the GFS and GGEM operational solutions are just weirdly anomalous with that 'hemispheric tucking' pattern mid/ua/ vortex boring backward toward Pittsburg nearing July like that.. With overarching heights nearing 592 dm over southern James Bay/N of lake superior... I'm willing to sell on this latter synoptic construct and then tone down Euro heat as a compromise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 On 6/23/2020 at 5:46 PM, dendrite said: Hopefully 90F right through Feb. Expand What’s your forecast for next week? Hot or cool and cloudy with onshore flow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 On 6/23/2020 at 5:51 PM, Typhoon Tip said: I find it interesting that the GEFs tele's are hot, but the GFS operational is fighting it's own ensemble mean and has been ever since the PNA started tipping negative spanning four night's worth ... It just refuses... So, perhaps this is one of those situations where the operational runs agree and the tele's/ens means then go the other direction - happens ... Yet, the GFS and GGEM operational solutions are just weirdly anomalous with that 'hemispheric tucking' pattern mid/ua/ vortex boring backward toward Pittsburg nearing July like that.. With overarching heights nearing 592 dm over southern James Bay/N of lake superior... I'm willing to sell on this latter synoptic construct and then tone down Euro heat as a compromise? Expand Last night’s euro op backed it in for next week as well. So I lean that route, but probably a modified version of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 On 6/23/2020 at 5:55 PM, Damage In Tolland said: What’s your forecast for next? Hot or cool and cloudy with onshore flow? Expand My forecast is that the big heat will fail and you’ll hide in lurkerville for another week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 On 6/23/2020 at 6:02 PM, dendrite said: My forecast is that the big heat will fail and you’ll hide in lurkerville for another week. Expand Too afraid to put something out there to be judged and graded. Noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 On 6/23/2020 at 6:23 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Too afraid to put something out there to be judged and graded. Noted Expand I don’t fall for your all or nothing traps. Euro still hanging on for the weekend. Could be a warm night Sat night even if it’s just U80s/l90s during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 BTV at 93F and climbing. This is comical at this point. Putting up mid-90s daily like they grow on trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 On 6/23/2020 at 6:29 PM, powderfreak said: BTV at 93F and climbing. This is comical at this point. Putting up mid-90s daily like they grow on trees. Expand Glad we don't live there. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 On 6/23/2020 at 6:29 PM, powderfreak said: BTV at 93F and climbing. This is comical at this point. Putting up mid-90s daily like they grow on trees. Expand A little like 2018 up there with 6 straight days...minus the big dews this time around though. Glad we didn’t live in BTV in 1944. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 On 6/23/2020 at 6:34 PM, dendrite said: A little like 2018 up there with 6 straight days...minus the big dews this time around though. Glad we didn’t live in BTV in 1944. Expand Lol, 13 out of the first 17 days of August.....that looks like a huge BDL torch, nevermind BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 On 6/23/2020 at 6:34 PM, dendrite said: A little like 2018 up there with 6 straight days...minus the big dews this time around though. Glad we didn’t live in BTV in 1944. Expand Holy shit ha. The one thing is for all the record heat it hasn’t triggered a heat advisory or product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 On 6/23/2020 at 6:39 PM, powderfreak said: Holy shit ha. The one thing is for all the record heat it hasn’t triggered a heat advisory or product. Expand All of the heat waves through 2018. https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/climo/extremes/heatwave.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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