Hot enough for you? -- the sequel (forecast contest)

[Roger Smith]

updates for Sunday 19th -- later confirmed --

BWI 100

DCA 99

IAD 98

RIC 101

[Roger Smith]

These updates are now confirmed from climate reports, to be adjusted later if necessary, check back for edits. ... 

 

FORECASTER _________BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC __ current total departure

George BM ___________110 _ 111 _ 111 _ 112 ___ 46

NorthArlington101 ____103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 104 ___ 13

Roger Smith __________103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 ___ 11

tplbge ________________103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 103 ___ 11

H2O __________________102 _ 105 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 13

yoda _________________ 102 _ 103 _ 100 _ 104 ___ 11

wxdude64 ____________102 _ 102 _ 100 _ 103 ____  9

WxUSAF ______________102 _ 101 __ 98 _ 100 ____ 5

Eskimo Joe ___________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 ____ 7

WinstonSalemArlington  __102 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 ____ 6

___ Consensus ________102 _ 101 _ 100 _ 102 ____ 7

WEATHER53 __________101 _ 101 __ 99 _ 103 ____ 6

Southmdwatcher _____ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 105 ____ 8

nw baltimore wx ______ 101 __ 99 __ 98 _ 100 ____ 2 (currently tied leader)

C.A.P.E. _______________100 _ 104 __ 99 _ 103 ____ 8

___ Actual to date _____ 100 __ 99 __ 98 _ 101 

MN Transplant _________99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ____ 4

Rhino16 _______________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 ____ 4

Wx Watcher 007 _______ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _ 101 ____ 2 (currently tied leader)

Dan The Man __________ 98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 99 ____ 8

TSG ___________________ 97 __ 98 __ 95 __ 98 ___ 10

JakkelWx ______________96 __ 97 __ 97 _  100 ____ 8

note: values already passed by actuals appear in italics.

values that are currently equal to seasonal max appear in green.

_______________________________________________________

The means of the 20 forecasts are

(contest means) _____ 101.1_ 100.9_ 99.9 _ 102.1

====================================================================

[George BM]

Making progress now. I'm on my way. 

[H2O]

I will not be denied

[JakkelWx]

I will get at least 3rd place!

[MN Transplant]

@nw baltimore wx is killing it as of today if the BWI & RIC 100, DCA 99, and IAD 98 holds.

[nw baltimore wx]

5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

@nw baltimore wx is killing it as of today if the BWI & RIC 100, DCA 99, and IAD 98 holds.

@WxWatcher007

 

Too bad that it will last less than 24 hours.

[Roger Smith]

I will update the provisional scoring when I can confirm today's maxima, daily climate reports are a bit late hitting the screen. I wasn't aware that BWI had hit 100 today, will change that and the 98 for IAD. 

(later edit -- confirmed the 100 at BWI and 98 at IAD from climate reports, but 101 at RIC, moves Wxwatcher007 back into a tie with nwbaltimorewx who had edged ahead when RIC was set at 100). 

If tomorrow is a bit hotter as you're thinking is possible, then all of this is academic anyway. A number of us are lurking.

[WxUSAF]

I like where I'm standing for tomorrow.

[Roger Smith]

If IAD reports 99 as max, and nothing else changes, we have a three-way tie at three points, the two current leaders add one point, Rhino16 drops one to move into the leadership tie. 

If IAD reports 100 as max, and no other changes, then we have a four-way tie with those three joined by WinstonSalem Arlington at 4 points.

However there's some chance of other changes taking place, won't know for a while. RIC hasn't been very close to yesterday's 101. 

[Roger Smith]

Based on climate reports, only IAD changed value today, but BWI has reached 100 since the report so can't guarantee that there won't be a change there later. (edit, BWI held at 100, no further changes required)

 

FORECASTER _________BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC __ current total departure

George BM ___________110 _ 111 _ 111 _ 112 ___ 45

NorthArlington101 ____103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 104 ___ 12

Roger Smith __________103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 ___ 10

tplbge ________________103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 103 ___ 10

H2O __________________102 _ 105 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 12

yoda _________________ 102 _ 103 _ 100 _ 104 ___ 10

wxdude64 ____________102 _ 102 _ 100 _ 103 ____  8

WxUSAF ______________102 _ 101 __ 98 _ 100 ____ 6

Eskimo Joe ___________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 ____ 6

WinstonSalemArlington  __102 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 ____ 5

___ Consensus ________102 _ 101 _ 100 _ 102 ____ 6

WEATHER53 __________101 _ 101 __ 99 _ 103 ____ 5

Southmdwatcher _____ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 105 ____ 7

nw baltimore wx ______ 101 __ 99 __ 98 _ 100 ____ 3 (currently tied leader)

C.A.P.E. _______________100 _ 104 __ 99 _ 103 ____ 7

___ Actual to date _____ 100 __ 99 __ 99 _ 101 

MN Transplant _________99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ____ 5

Rhino16 _______________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 ____ 3 (currently tied leader)

Wx Watcher 007 _______ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _ 101 ____ 3 (currently tied leader)

Dan The Man __________ 98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 99 ____ 9

TSG ___________________ 97 __ 98 __ 95 __ 98 ___ 11

JakkelWx ______________96 __ 97 __ 97 _  100 ____ 9

note: values already passed by actuals appear in italics.

values that are currently equal to seasonal max appear in green.

_______________________________________________________

The means of the 20 forecasts are

(contest means) _____ 101.1_ 100.9_ 99.9 _ 102.1

====================================================================

If BWI has a final report of 101, then nwbaltimorewx would move ahead with 2 points.

[WEATHER53]

Say it every year that so many of you are great at doing these. 2/3 to win it is tough.

i do one at the real estate  office with 6 others and couple are better than average on weather and best there is 8.

[Roger Smith]

If the west coast ridge flattens out in August, look out ... extreme heat has developed over the Pacific northwest region, highs today were near 110 degrees in eastern WA and OR and some parts of southern ID. These are near-record values. It is about 97 F at my house and I live above 4,000' halfway up a mountain range, valley readings in southern BC are near 100 F. This is about the fifth day of this heat wave with very little air movement, luckily the low humidity means it cools off significantly after sunset. We get to lows of 65-68 F which is somewhat refreshing. Lower elevations south of the border stay in the mid 70s in their heat waves. Basically this is desert southwest heat that decided this might be a good place to set up for a while. 

[WEATHER53]

Start a mini about will these be topped,

i say No

[MN Transplant]

11 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Start a mini about will these be topped,

i say No

No, these are very likely to stick.

[nw baltimore wx]

10 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

No, these are very likely to stick.

We need a tiebreaker.

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

We need a tiebreaker.

Tiebreaker can  be-if one or more are eclipsed , which one ?

Number of bullseye direct hit breaks it otherwise 

[MN Transplant]

22 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

No, these are very likely to stick.

Following up on this, there have been <10 100° days at DCA after August 17th.  Given the forecast and how wet we've been recently, I'd be extremely surprised if we pulled one off this year.

[H2O]

Contest should have been for longest and shittiest summer with most 90F temps.  We didn't do big heat.  We just did extended terrible heat.

[mattskiva]

On 8/12/2020 at 9:08 AM, H2O said:

Contest should have been for longest and shittiest summer with most 90F temps.  We didn't do big heat.  We just did extended terrible heat.

Worst combination of heat and humidity ever.  105 in Denver with a dewpoint of 25 is far more comfortable than 85 in DC with a dewpoint of 75.

 

[WEATHER53]

Thanks for doing this.

Good estimating by many 

 

[Roger Smith]

Three are tied for the lead (3 error points) with almost zero possibility of higher temperatures to come. 

If the leaders wish, a tiebreaker could be highest temperature in October at the same four locations. 

I will score any predictions made but only current leaders could win the contest as a result of those. 

Deadline for the October tiebreakers would be October 1st 0600z. 

Here's mine just for the heck of it ... 

BWI 88 .. DCA 87 .. IAD 86 .. RIC 91

If enough people enter this, I'll declare it a free-standing separate contest as well as our tiebreaker. 

(Tiebreaker null and void if any actual seasonal max is altered now to 30th)

Tiebreaker valid if one or more tied leaders enters. Will be pm'ing any who don't appear by 27th. 

Tiebreaker edits are of course permissible and no need to draw attention to them as no record will be kept until October 1st. 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Contest trivia ...

Smallest maximum error overall __ 1 F _ NWBaltimorewx had three plus one on the money to tie for the lead (3 error points)

Most perfect forecasts _ 2 _ Rhino16 had IAD and RIC on the money, accumulated 3 error points and is also tied for the lead. 

________________________ 2 _ Wxwatcher007 had DCA and RIC on the money, accumulated 3 error points and is also tied for the lead.

________________________ 2 _ CAPE had DCA and IAD correct, but accumulated 7 error points elsewhere, finished t-9th with

________________________ 1 _ Soundmdwatcher who had DCA correct and also 7 error points. 

________________________ 1 _ Weather 53 had IAD on the mark, and was tied 4th with MN Transplant and Winston Salem Arlington who

____________________________ both had three errors of 1 degree ,  and one of 2 degrees.

Closest to average of four __ (99.75) _ NWBaltimorewx had an average of 99.50, WxUSAF was second closest at 100.25, and co-leaders

______________________________________ Rhino16 and Wxwatcher007 tied for third at 99.00. 

It can be seen from the above that 3 error points tied for first, and 5 error points tied fourth, while 7 points tied 9th.

The missing link is that 6 error points tied for 7th (two in that position were WxUSAF, and Eskimo Joe; also our consensus). 

 

 

[nw baltimore wx]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

So did we all win or are we doing a tiebreaker?

If we were to vote, I’d vote for a tiebreaker.

[Rhino16]

I say we party.

[WEATHER53]

On 9/15/2020 at 3:58 AM, Roger Smith said:

Three are tied for the lead (3 error points) with almost zero possibility of higher temperatures to come. 

If the leaders wish, a tiebreaker could be highest temperature in October at the same four locations. 

I will score any predictions made but only current leaders could win the contest as a result of those. 

Deadline for the October tiebreakers would be October 1st 0600z. 

Here's mine just for the heck of it ... 

BWI 88 .. DCA 87 .. IAD 86 .. RIC 91

If enough people enter this, I'll declare it a free-standing separate contest as well as our tiebreaker. 

(Tiebreaker null and void if any actual seasonal max is altered now to 30th)

Tiebreaker valid if one or more tied leaders enters. Will be pm'ing any who don't appear by 27th. 

Tiebreaker edits are of course permissible and no need to draw attention to them as no record will be kept until October 1st. 

 

 

I believe tie breaker should be numbers of bullseyes otherwise it’s tied 

[Roger Smith]

A tiebreaker has been posted for the three who are tied, and the tiebreaker contest is also free-standing for anyone who wants to enter it. 

The details are back in my previous post of September 15th. Predict the max temps in October at the four locations used in the contest. 

I can't break the tie based on number of hits as two of the three had two locations on the money, the third member of the leadership group had three errors of 1 deg.

If nobody enters the tiebreaker (of these three) then the contest ends tied. 

[Rhino16]

BWI: 71

DCA: 73

IAD: 72

RIC: 74

[nw baltimore wx]

BWI: 81

DCA: 80

IAD: 79

RIC: 83

Hopefully you both see this and have the opportunity to edit.

 

[Roger Smith]

Thanks for those, good luck to the three of you.