Roger Smith Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 Prince Frederick laid down his crown and his ermine robes, and wandered off to who knows where, promising to return next winter. That could be 2038 the way things were going the past two so-called winters. Meanwhile he asked me to defend the realm (which I won't due to a nasty combination of inability and lack of funding) and to start a summer heat forecast contest, which I think is the only real reason for this post. Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to predict the highest temperatures to be observed at each of (you guessed it) BWI, DCA, IAD and SLC just kidding RIC. You can add SLC if you want, choose any number between 99 and 101 and you'll be right. Wonderful scenery, non-challenging climate they have round Utah, I would go and tell you more but they won't let me in because of some cough going around. Anyway, here's my opening salvo in this contest, torn between the idea that the cold spell in May guarantees a scorcher, or just possibly is a sign of some long awaited return to the climate of the 1850s. Fat chance of that, so I will go with BWI _ 103 DCA _ 103 IAD _ 101 RIC _ 102 and make the bold prediction that I will not be dead last, or dead, or last, but ya never know. The real deadline is not T384 but whenever we have a nice turnout and I spot anything on the model runs that looks like potential action in this contest. Let's say it won't close before June 10th end of day, but could go a few days past that. And once again I for one (insert verb of choice) my Mid-Atl overlords from my distant outpost beyond the hills. Get a 10% discount by mentioning "lack of contrails" in your post. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 BWI: 110F DCA: 111F IAD: 111F RIC: 112F 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 BWI: 100F DCA: 104F IAD: 99F RIC: 103F I will also predict my yard won't see triple digits. Never does. The antithesis of urban sprawl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 On 5/22/2020 at 7:09 AM, C.A.P.E. said: BWI: 100F DCA: 104F IAD: 99F RIC: 103F I will also predict my yard won't see triple digits. Never does. The antithesis of urban sprawl. Too humid in those fields! BWI: 101 DCA: 99 IAD: 98 RIC: 100 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 BWI: 102F DCA: 102F IAD: 100F RIC: 103F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 BWI, 102° (because of the controversy/climate change conspiracy theory) DCA, 100° IAD, 101° RIC, 100° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 BWI: 96F DCA: 97F IAD: 97F RIC: 100F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 BWI 102F DCA 101F IAD 98F RIC 100F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 Cool summer inbound BWI 97F DCA 98F IAD 95F RIC 98F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 BWI: 99 DCA: 97 IAD: 99 RIC: 101 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 BWI: 101 DCA: 99 IAD: 101 RIC: 105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 BWI: 103IAD: 101DCA: 103RIC: 104 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 BWI: 102 IAD: 100 DCA: 103 RIC: 104 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted May 24, 2020 Share Posted May 24, 2020 BWI: 98 IAD: 97 DCA: 96 RIC: 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted May 27, 2020 Share Posted May 27, 2020 Dca 101 Bwi 101 Iad 99 Ric 103 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 28, 2020 Share Posted May 28, 2020 BWI _ 99 DCA _ 98 IAD _ 98 RIC _ 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 29, 2020 Share Posted May 29, 2020 BWI-102 DCA-105 IAD- 102 RIC-102 My TB is that I will see no rain all of Aug while it is 100 for 6 straight days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted May 31, 2020 Share Posted May 31, 2020 BWI - 103 DCA - 101 IAD - 102 RICH - 103 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 1, 2020 Author Share Posted June 1, 2020 Thanks for entries so far, will leave this open for more entries until June 15th and you can edit any entries you've made without notice, I won't be recording any predictions until I declare the contest closed. Since 95% of years have a max after that date and often a month or two after it, I can't see that people will gain much advantage but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 14, 2020 Author Share Posted June 14, 2020 Monday 15th is the last day for entries or for editing your existing entries. No need to notify on edits, I will construct a table of entries from what I see on Tuesday. You can enter up to the end of the day (06z Tuesday is the cutoff). I will post a closed for entries note and start on the table of entries at that time. Good luck !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted June 14, 2020 Share Posted June 14, 2020 BWI _ 102 DCA _ 100 IAD _ 100 RIC _ 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 16, 2020 Author Share Posted June 16, 2020 Table of entries -- 2020 seasonal maxima in the Mid-Atlantic region Forecasts appear by order of BWI predictions, then sorted by DCA, IAD and RIC where tied to that point. Consensus is derived from medians although means would be similar. With 20 forecasts the median is the average of 10th and 11th ranked. The actual maximum to date will move up through this table (we can presume) to its eventual resting place. Later in the contest, a table of departures will be posted to show the evolving results of the contest. FORECASTER _________BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC George BM ___________110 _ 111 _ 111 _ 112 NorthArlington101 ____103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 104 Roger Smith __________103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 tplbge ________________103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 103 H2O __________________102 _ 105 _ 102 _ 102 yoda _________________ 102 _ 103 _ 100 _ 104 wxdude64 ____________102 _ 102 _ 100 _ 103 WxUSAF ______________102 _ 101 __ 98 _ 100 Eskimo Joe ___________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 WinstonSalemArlington __102 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 ___ Consensus ________102 _ 101 _ 100 _ 102 WEATHER53 __________101 _ 101 __ 99 _ 103 Southmdwatcher _____ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 105 nw baltimore wx ______ 101 __ 99 __ 98 _ 100 C.A.P.E. _______________100 _ 104 __ 99 _ 103 MN Transplant _________99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 Rhino16 _______________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 Wx Watcher 007 _______ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _ 101 Dan The Man __________ 98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 99 TSG ___________________ 97 __ 98 __ 95 __ 98 JakkelWx ______________ 96 __ 97 __ 97 _ 100 ___ Actual to date ______ 96 __ 93 __ 95 __ 94 _______________________________________________________ The means of the 20 forecasts are (contest means) _____ 101.1_ 100.9_ 99.9 _ 102.1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 29, 2020 Share Posted June 29, 2020 Watch this be the summer everyone struggles to hit 95°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 49 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Watch this be the summer everyone struggles to hit 95°. Not seeing a significant signal on the means for a big SE ridge to develop and park. As long as the upper ridging generally stays to our west, we might be able to escape 100 degree heat. I am sure there will be a brief excursion or 2 regardless, at least for the UHI areas like DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 10 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Not seeing a significant signal on the means for a big SE ridge to develop and park. As long as the upper ridging generally stays to our west, we might be able to escape 100 degree heat. I am sure there will be a brief excursion or 2 regardless, at least for the UHI areas like DC. Which model is NBC Washington using? They have us roasting around 100 by the end of the 10-day. They have been constantly predicting big heat waves in the longrange over the last three weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 30, 2020 Share Posted June 30, 2020 10 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Not seeing a significant signal on the means for a big SE ridge to develop and park. As long as the upper ridging generally stays to our west, we might be able to escape 100 degree heat. I am sure there will be a brief excursion or 2 regardless, at least for the UHI areas like DC. models want to keep ridging to the middle of the country. Flow is up north of us. Gonna be dry with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 4, 2020 Author Share Posted July 4, 2020 And we have our first action since the contest was closed for entries, DCA moves up to 97. BWI and RIC tied their previous highs of 96 and 94 (on Friday 3rd). IAD hit 94 but had 95 previously. Table amended to show the new value for DCA, "Actual" remains below most forecasts or in a few cases tied with them, but DCA has now moved past one forecast. I have added total departures to the table. This table will be edited for a week or two if we keep moving up, so if there are later posts, scroll back to it. Location forecasts that are passed by reality will change to italic type. FORECASTER _________BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC __ current total departure George BM ___________110 _ 111 _ 111 _ 112 ___ 62 NorthArlington101 ____103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 104 ___ 29 Roger Smith __________103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 ___ 27 tplbge ________________103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 103 ___ 27 H2O __________________102 _ 105 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 29 yoda _________________ 102 _ 103 _ 100 _ 104 ___ 27 wxdude64 ____________102 _ 102 _ 100 _ 103 ___ 25 WxUSAF ______________102 _ 101 __ 98 _ 100 ___ 19 Eskimo Joe ___________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 ___ 21 WinstonSalemArlington __102 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 22 ___ Consensus ________102 _ 101 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 23 WEATHER53 __________101 _ 101 __ 99 _ 103 ___ 22 Southmdwatcher _____ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 24 nw baltimore wx ______ 101 __ 99 __ 98 _ 100 ___ 16 C.A.P.E. _______________100 _ 104 __ 99 _ 103 ___ 24 MN Transplant _________99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___ 12 Rhino16 _______________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 14 Wx Watcher 007 _______ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _ 101 ___ 14 Dan The Man __________ 98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 99 ___ 10 TSG ___________________ 97 __ 98 __ 95 __ 98 ____ 6 (current leader) JakkelWx ______________96 __ 97 __ 97 _ 100 ____ 8 ___ Actual to date ______96 __ 97 __ 95 __ 94 _______________________________________________________ The means of the 20 forecasts are (contest means) _____ 101.1_ 100.9_ 99.9 _ 102.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Looks good, summer can end now. On 7/4/2020 at 12:55 AM, Roger Smith said: Dan The Man __________ 98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 99 ___ 10 TSG ___________________ 97 __ 98 __ 95 __ 98 ____ 6 (current leader) JakkelWx ______________96 __ 97 __ 97 _ 100 ____ 8 ___ Actual to date ______96 __ 97 __ 95 __ 94 _______________________________________________________ The means of the 20 forecasts are (contest means) _____ 101.1_ 100.9_ 99.9 _ 102.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 19, 2020 Author Share Posted July 19, 2020 Slight movement in the contest scoring after the past two days. Updated scoring to date ... FORECASTER _________BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC __ current total departure George BM ___________110 _ 111 _ 111 _ 112 ___ 55 NorthArlington101 ____103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 104 ___ 22 Roger Smith __________103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 ___ 20 tplbge ________________103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 103 ___ 20 H2O __________________102 _ 105 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 22 yoda _________________ 102 _ 103 _ 100 _ 104 ___ 20 wxdude64 ____________102 _ 102 _ 100 _ 103 ___ 18 WxUSAF ______________102 _ 101 __ 98 _ 100 ___ 12 Eskimo Joe ___________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 ___ 14 WinstonSalemArlington __102 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 15 ___ Consensus ________102 _ 101 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 16 WEATHER53 __________101 _ 101 __ 99 _ 103 ___ 15 Southmdwatcher _____ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 17 nw baltimore wx ______ 101 __ 99 __ 98 _ 100 ____ 9 C.A.P.E. _______________100 _ 104 __ 99 _ 103 ___ 17 MN Transplant _________99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ____ 5 (current leaders) Rhino16 _______________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 ____ 9 Wx Watcher 007 _______ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _ 101 ____ 7 ___ Actual to date ______98 __ 98 __ 97 __ 96 Dan The Man __________ 98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 99 ____ 5 (current leaders) TSG ___________________ 97 __ 98 __ 95 __ 98 ____ 5 (current leaders) JakkelWx ______________96 __ 97 __ 97 _ 100 ____ 7 note: values already passed by actuals appear in italics. _______________________________________________________ The means of the 20 forecasts are (contest means) _____ 101.1_ 100.9_ 99.9 _ 102.1 ==================================================================== Changes will be made to this on Sunday 19th with DCA at 99 and RIC 100 (hourly obs) so far. Lots of time left for higher values to emerge, 65% of years have their annual max later than today's date (the median is July 24). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 19, 2020 Share Posted July 19, 2020 I’m gonna need some river winding today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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