2020 North Atlantic hurricane / tropical storm seasonal forecast contest -- simplified format

[Roger Smith]

Here's the annual "hurricane forecast contest" with a simplified format compared to other recent years, just the seasonal count is required this year, no monthly details. You can add your thoughts about that of course. The contest remains open to mid-June as the June monthly count won't be all that big a deal-breaker. Keep in mind that with Arthur's brief reign of slight disruption the count is already 1/0/0. 

My entry will be 20/13/7 so quite an active year and I suspect the main focus of activity may be the east coast for a change. That's not to say the usual areas of activity won't see their fair share, but I am expecting some fairly strong storms to develop in the Atlantic near the Carolinas possibly impacting the mid-Atlantic states more often than we've seen in several years. 

Post your forecasts and discussions ... 

[Rhino16]

18/14/5

I think we may see a few more storms during the summer than in recent years, possibly giving us a taste for peak season time.

[JakkelWx]

17/10/6

 

[yoda]

18/8/4

[jaxjagman]

16/9/5

[crownweather]

15/8/3

[Rtd208]

18/12/7

[snowlover2]

19/12/5

[Newman]

18/10/4

[Alfoman]

17/9/5

[BlueDXer75]

19/9/5

 

[olafminesaw]

15/8/4

[Orangeburgwx]

23 storms
20 named
11 hurricanes
5 major

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

[NorthHillsWx]

19/9/4

I think the Gulf will be most likely to take a major hit (maybe multiple major hits). I think homegrown systems (similar to the 2 we've already seen) will be common. 

[Yanksfan]

20/12/4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Predicting 2 majors will strike the US mainland, one in the gulf near LA/AL the other will strike OBX then ride up the coast and threaten the mid Atlantic/ northeast.

[thunderman]

19/10/5

[ncforecaster89]

6/15/20 (edit):

20/10/5

Decided to add an additional named storm, to my initial forecast to differentiate it from the forecast of "thunderman."  Still think 19/10/5 is most probable.    

19/10/5

This forecast is derived from accounting for the two preseason TS' and adding them to the average of all "cool" Neutral to La Nina ENSO season figures of 17/9/4 (1995-2019).  Added one additional MH due to my expectation of a more favorable MDR.  

[Roger Smith]

Okay, just a notice that this contest will close for entries at the end of the day Monday, the deadline is set at 06z 16th which is 0200h EDT (after midnight Monday, very early Tuesday) .... I will take entries as shown then so you can edit today or Monday without the need to notify. The table of entries will be based on what I see on Tuesday morning (will have the table of entries up within a few hours of the deadline). Don't forget we are at 3/0/0 so it's that plus whatever you think will happen to end of the year for a prediction of the overall seasonal count. 

Good luck !!

[Windspeed]

22/11/6

 

*** stares down [mention=9730]WxWatcher007[/mention] with The Good, the Bad and the Ugly theme playing ***

[Roger Smith]

Table of entries for 2020 N Atl hurricane seasonal forecast

Two expert predictions are added to the field, the NHC numbers are middle of their range and CSU gave specific values as shown. Other institutional predictions can be seen at this link:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Atlantic_hurricane_season

Your forecasts are shown in order of number of named storms, then broken down by hurricanes and major hurricanes.

 

FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj 

Windspeed ______________________ 22 _11 _ 6

WxWatcher007 __________________ 21 _11 _ 5

Roger Smith _____________________ 20 _13 _ 7

NutleyBlizzard ___________________ 20 _12 _ 4

Orangeburg Wx __________________ 20 _11 _ 5

NCforecaster89 __________________20 _10 _ 5

Snowlover2 ______________________19 _12 _ 5

Thunderman _____________________19 _10 _ 5

BlueDXer75 ______________________19 _ 9 _ 5

NorthHillsWx ____________________ 19 _ 9 _ 4

___ Consensus (means) ________ 18.5_10.3_4.9

Rhino16 _________________________ 18 _14 _ 5

Rtd208 __________________________ 18 _12 _ 7

Newman _________________________18 _10 _ 4

Yoda _____________________________18 _ 8 _ 4

JakkelWx ________________________ 17 _10 _ 6

Alfoman _________________________ 17 _ 9 _ 5

Jaxjagman ______________________ 16 _ 9 _ 5

NHC (mid-range) _________________16 _ 8 _ 4.5

CSU _____________________________ 16 _ 8 _ 4

Olafminesaw ____________________ 15 _ 8 _ 4

Crownweather ___________________ 15 _ 8 _ 3

______________________________________________________________

19 forecasts (and the two expert predictions) ... means as shown for consensus in table.

The contest means do not include the two expert predictions although they would not change much with them included. 

[Roger Smith]

8/1/0 and it's July 27th ...

... extrapolation from normal pace is 40/5/0. 

Under our normal scoring rules everyone would score zero.

LOL

[Roger Smith]

9/2/0 ... on the way to 45/10/0. 

[Roger Smith]

13/2/0 in this Year of the Weak Tropical Storm. Could go to 13/4/0 if both Laura and Marco become marginal canes. 

 

Anyone care to hazard an updated guess? I would say 28/15/3 at this rate. The later storms are much more likely to start beefing up. Main question is, will this production rate continue? If so, we are climatologically one-third of the way into the season for total count, adjust that for more likely hurricane outcomes, and you get to something like 40/20/?? as any majors will evidently have to come from the Greek alphabet at this rate. 

[ldub23]

after  marco, 7/2/1. If laura  becomes a cane season total  20/5/1. If  laura doesnt  become a cane  20/4/1

[Orangeburgwx]

I think we all busted for the amount of majors

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

[Roger Smith]

Don't know about that yet, most majors occur in Sept-Oct (or late Aug). Outside chance one of these twin storms makes cat-3. Then all to play for in Sept-Oct. 

[Roger Smith]

The count is now 13/4/1. 

Here's the forecast table again, this time it's what you need to complete your forecast. In some cases, it is no longer mathematically possible so the number of hurricanes will be greater than the number of named storms. 

 

FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj 

Windspeed ______________________  9 _ 7 _  5

WxWatcher007 __________________  8 _ 7 _ 4

Roger Smith _____________________ 7 _ 9 _ 6

NutleyBlizzard ___________________ 7 _ 8 _ 3

Orangeburg Wx __________________ 7 _ 7 _ 4

NCforecaster89 __________________7 _ 6 _ 4

Snowlover2 ______________________ 6 _ 8 _ 4

Thunderman _____________________ 6 _ 6 _ 4

BlueDXer75 ______________________ 6 _ 5 _ 4

NorthHillsWx ____________________ 6 _ 5 _  3

___ Consensus (means) _________ 5.5_ 6.3_3.9

Rhino16 _________________________ 5 _10 _ 4

Rtd208 __________________________ 5 _ 8 _ 6

Newman _________________________5 _ 6 _ 3

Yoda _____________________________5 _ 4 _ 3

JakkelWx ________________________ 4 _ 6 _ 5

Alfoman _________________________ 4 _ 5 _ 4

Jaxjagman ______________________ 3 _ 5 _ 4

NHC (mid-range) _________________3 _ 4 _ 3.5

CSU _____________________________ 3 _ 4 _ 3

Olafminesaw ____________________ 2 _ 4 _ 3

Crownweather ___________________ 2 _ 4 _ 2

______________________________________________________________

[Roger Smith]

On 6/15/2020 at 8:51 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

Haha I really want to go higher but I’m chicken. 

(forecast was 21/11/5 compared to 22/11/6 from windspeed) ...

bawk bawk bawk ... you are fine with the 11/5 part anyway, maybe 30/11/6? 

We are now at 20/7/1, could reach 20/7/3 if both Sally and Paulette reach major status, and 20/8/4 if Teddy does also. Some variations on that more likely, perhaps by the time Teddy goes major Wilfred will be along and the count may be 21/8/3 if only one of Sally or Paulette become cat-3. If the season then slows a bit compared to 2005 (I would expect maybe Nov 2020 won't keep up to Nov 2005) the final landing point might be 25/10/4 or something like that. If 25/10/4 verifies, then the best seasonal score will be Windspeed at 40/50 with WxWatcher007 at 38/50. Points as always are calculated as follows: 

For each of the three elements ...

penalty points from original total of 50 are 1 for an error of 1, 3 for an error of 2 (average of 2+4), 6 for an error of 3 (average of 3+9), 10 for an error of 4 (average of 4+16), 15 for an error of 5 (average of 5+25), etc. 

So nobody with a forecast of 20 or fewer storms can beat 40 even if they have H and M perfect (assuming 25 storms). 

If the count goes much past 28, nobody will score points but I'll declare the winner to be whoever is least below zero. 

Looks like a two-person race now, although those of us with 20 named storms have faint hopes with the right set of future outcomes, not very likely ones given current model projections and the statistical likelihood of passing 22 named storms. If we finished at 21/10/4 NCForecaster89 (20/10/5 predicted) would have 48 points, but the only route to that finish is for Vicky to become a hurricane and Wilfred also, plus any three of Sally, Paulette, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred becoming majors. This is not entirely impossible. In fact 49 points is theoretically possible at 21/10/5 (four of five become majors). At 21/9/5 (Vicky not a hurricane) it would be 48 points.

If the current season froze with maximum hurricane development of all candidates, the final count would be 20/9/5. Vicky seems unlikely to become a hurricane at all, so 20/8/4 is realistically the highest we can reach from current levels (unless Rene unpredictably comes back to life). 

Orangeburgwx at 20/11/5 is unable to pass NCForecaster89 mathematically since there is no chance of reaching 21/11 from 20/7 without a re-do on a previous storm, only 21/10 is possible now with two current storms yet to reach hurricane status. 

A 22/10/3 finish would leave NCForecaster89 at 46 points, Orangeburgwx at 45, and windspeed at 43 with wxwatcher007 also at 45. So NCForecaster89 needs a slowdown of the season but with some vigor in the hurricane production. Beyond 23 named storms, the storm-20s fall out of contention rather quickly, by 24 the error component of named storms is 10 points which is hard to overcome given that more storms probably means more canes. 

The other two at 20 (Nutley Blizzard and myself) have little mathematical chance either, although I would come within a point or two around 30/13/7. The way this season is going, 30/13/7 sounds difficult, 30/11/3 perhaps. 

[Roger Smith]

Now at 20/8/2, would be 22/8/2 if two invests in Gulf, tropical Atlantic reach TS status (and not hurricane). 

[Roger Smith]

Count is 25/9/3, on its way to 218/12/4