WhirlingWx Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 If the immediate DFW area were in that watch, we'd be on the far eastern edge. As they mention that an increasing tornado threat may materialize in the evening, would that lead to a new WW a bit farther east later on (perhaps including more of the DFW area)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 17 minutes ago, TexMexWx said: If the immediate DFW area were in that watch, we'd be on the far eastern edge. As they mention that an increasing tornado threat may materialize in the evening, would that lead to a new WW a bit farther east later on (perhaps including more of the DFW area)? Wouldn't be shocked. We're expected to have our weather a good bit later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 Attempts at convective initiation around Graham and Jacksboro seem to be struggling at this moment. Some light radar returns are present there, although nothing significant has formed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 Pretty strongly worded AFD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 206 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020 .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY/ THE OVERNIGHT PLAINS CONVECTION MADE A RUN AT NORTH TEXAS, BUT ALL THAT REMAINS IS A STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO DENTON TO BONHAM. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS GRAVITY WAVES CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CUMULUS FIELD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS, WHICH IS A SIGN OF A VERY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. THIS INVERSION IS VERIFIED ON RECENT AMDAR SOUNDINGS, AND WE'LL BE SENDING UP A BALLOON WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO TO SAMPLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE THERMODYNAMIC AND MOISTURE PROFILE. OBVIOUSLY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE AN IMPORTANT MESOSCALE FEATURE THAT WILL IMPACT NOT ONLY CONVECTIVE INITIATION, BUT ALSO STORM MODE AND HAZARDS. THE BACKING OF WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS SERVED TO INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES NOTABLY, RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT NOW SUPPORTIVE OF PROLONGED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE INSOLATION HAS BEEN EXCELLENT ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH MLCAPE LIKELY TO EXCEED 3500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND PREDICTION OF SLOW EASTWARD RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS, IT IS LIKELY THAT ACTUAL SUPERCELL MOTIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE RIGHTWARD OR DUE SOUTH. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS IT WILL IMPACT THE STORM COVERAGE AND EVOLUTION. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS WE'VE SEEN THE HRRR TREND TOWARD MORE SUPERCELLULAR COVERAGE WHICH IS INHERENTLY MORE SCATTERED AND THEREFORE SUGGESTS LESS STORM COVERAGE THAN A MULTICELL CLUSTER OR LINE WOULD HAVE PRODUCED. THIS MORE SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE IS ALSO VERIFIED BY THE WOFS WHICH IS HIGHLIGHTING THE SUPERCELL THREAT PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS WHERE WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW FAILED ATTEMPTS AT INITIATION. SINCE MATURE STORM MOTION MAY TEND TO TAKE IT SOUTHWARD, IT MAY BE A WHILE BEFORE STORMS CAN INITIATE FARTHER EAST (EAST OF I-35/I-35E AND NORTH OF I-30) WHERE STORM COVERAGE IS MORE IN QUESTION. SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 8 PM. WE'VE AGREED TO WATCH HOW TRENDS EVOLVE BEFORE GOING TOO FAR EAST WITH A WATCH. LIKEWISE WE'RE CONCERNED THAT THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AROUND SUNSET, SO THIS WATCH EXPIRING AT 8 PM ALLOWS AN ASSESSMENT OF THOSE TRENDS THIS EVENING. FOR NOW THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS LIKE VERY LARGE HAIL - POSSIBLY UP TO BASEBALL SIZE - AS WE ANTICIPATE THAT WE'LL HAVE MORE SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THAN WE WERE EARLIER. GIVEN THE ALREADY SLOW MOTION OF SUPERCELLS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME NEARLY STATIONARY OR STALLED CELLS EITHER WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED MULTI-INCH RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING. BY THIS EVENING WE DO EXPECT MORE COVERAGE OF STORMS AND EVENTUALLY ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL SHOULD DEVELOP TO HELP SEND CELLS SOUTHEASTWARD EITHER AS A MULTICELL CLUSTER OR BROKEN LINE. THE EVENING HOURS PROBABLY REPRESENT MOST OF THE DFW METROPLEX'S BEST SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF I-20 BY MIDNIGHT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT THE INTENSITY/COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF I-20, AS THIS IS ADVERTISED BY A COUPLE OF THE MODELS. SO WE CAN'T SAY FOR SURE THAT ONCE THE FIRST ROUND MOVES THROUGH THAT NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE DONE WITH THE EVENT. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE WORKED OVER FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS ON SATURDAY AND HAVE KEPT POPS LOW BUT ADVERTISED LOTS OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S BUT IT SHOULD BE VERY MUGGY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING. TR.92 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 Looks like there is a major hail storm ongoing northwest of Wichita Falls now, it is warned for up to 3-inch hail. There may be some additional attempts at convective initation in the Graham/Jacksboro area per radar and satellite imagery; some of the ingredients there seem better for severe weather (supercell composite, SigTor, EHI, etc.), compared with southern OK, although that Red River storm is in a perfect position to produce large hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 Surprise surprise, cap over DFW is still holding with no sign of breaking any time soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 603 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN COTTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... SOUTHEASTERN TILLMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS... CENTRAL WICHITA COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 700 PM CDT. * AT 603 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRANDFIELD, MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND VEHICLES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NORTHERN WICHITA FALLS, BURKBURNETT, GRANDFIELD, DEAN, RANDLETT, DEVOL, SHEPPARD AFB, TAYLOR, CHARLIE AND CASHION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 Tornado warning also issued for that storm just northwest of Wichita Falls. Radar indicated at this time. EDIT: confirmed tornado west of Burkburnett according to livestream from Channel 6 in Wichita Falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said: Tornado warning also issued for that storm just northwest of Wichita Falls. Radar indicated at this time. EDIT: confirmed tornado west of Burkburnett according to livestream from Channel 6 in Wichita Falls. Yeah, looking like intermittent touchdowns(?) for the time being. The storm made a hard right and has a nice presentation on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 I am concerned about the prospect of the LLJ ramping up this evening with backed winds as was indicated in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 Mesoscale Discussion 0674 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0620 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020 Areas affected...North Texas...Southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203... Valid 222320Z - 230115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203 continues. SUMMARY...A tornado threat will continue near the Red River over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...A right-moving supercell is ongoing near the Red River which located close to a maximum in instability. A pocket of strong instability is analyzed by the RAP near and to the south of the Red River with MLCAPE in the 4500 to 5000 J/kg range. The WSR 88D-VWP at Frederick shows veering winds with height in the lowest 2 km AGL with 0-6 km shear near 45 kt. As low-level winds increase over the next couple of hours, the tornado threat will likely increase locally. The greatest threat will exist with the right-moving supercell as it tracks just to the south of the Red River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 ML CAPE is higher than initially progged earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 I think this could be a large rain-wrapped tornado now, based on radar Quote HAZARD...Damaging tornado and baseball size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado about 5 miles west of Burkburnett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 Just now, Chinook said: I think this could be a large rain-wrapped tornado now, based on radar Yeah, showing a BWER and a more intense couplet, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 Got a TOR warning in KS and another in NE too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 Sig Tor parameters are highest in south central to se OK probably because of the higher bulk shear in that area. But I am leery of the se backed winds over the metroplex with a cap that at 10 is certainly not thermonuclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 And storms are now rapidly forming over the eastern OK western AR area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 I'm starting to wonder if SPC overestimated the effects of the outflow boundary with respect to their re-positioning of the ENH risk earlier. The significant hail is currently materializing north of the ENH risk and the hatching, but that storm SW of Bellevue, TX still bears watching, especially if it becomes a right-mover. That storm has just taken on supercellular characteristics (including a hook), so it may take a right turn pretty soon. EDIT: couplet SW of Bellevue: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 There's a new tornado warning east of Burkburnett. The original supercell regenerated the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 Cell tops in the OK/TX watch area expected to reach 60,000 feet. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 Reports of a confirmed tornado on the ground west of Bowie, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 A tornado was reported on the northern storm, near Petrolia (0027z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 Storm over Wichita Falls looks to be developing rotation. It looks as if that storm has caught up to the outflow boundary ahead of it and is latching onto that OFB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 Another possible tornado near Bowie, TX Quote * At 827 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Bellevue, or 7 miles west of Bowie, moving east at 10 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and hail up to two inches in diameter. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 I now wonder if that complex of storms along the Red River will form a cold pool and dive se to the metroplex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 Storm west of Little Rock is starting to rotate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 I wonder if that is an MCV associated with that activity near Bowie, TX? Storm motions seem to be rotating around a point near Bowie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 18 minutes ago, MUWX said: Storm west of Little Rock is starting to rotate There has been a tornado reported near Monroe, OK, which is probably what you were talking about? South of Fort Smith AR. New tornado warning near Mansfield AR, just to the northeast of the other storm, which still has a tornado warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 This area and the Wichita Falls environs have really been getting pounded this evening with one svr storm after another. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 915 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. * AT 915 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEWPORT, MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BELLEVUE, NEWPORT, VASHTI AND JOY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 Aside from the risk for hail, tornadoes, and wind, I am getting very concerned about flooding potential near and west of Bowie, TX. These storms have stalled over this area for quite some time, with heavy precipitation, and they may only now be starting to increase their forward motion. There are also other storms behind this complex as well. The big question is whether this complex will take a right turn and impact the northern areas of the Metroplex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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