snowlover2 Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 Slight risk for tornadoes just added for SW OH /N KY. Quote ..OHIO VALLEY A MOIST PRE-COLD FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO OHIO AHEAD OF THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS. SCATTERED NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING STORMS ARE ONGOING AT MIDDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUD BREAKS PRECEDE THIS ACTIVITY. MODEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUALLY STRONGER UPDRAFT INTENSITY THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY STRONG (GENERALLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR 30-40 KT), MODERATELY STRONG/CURVING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF TRANSIENT LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES COULD OCCUR ASIDE FROM LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 193 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Kentucky Central and Southern Ohio * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Bands of storms including a few semi-discrete/embedded supercells aside from more prevalent bowing segments will continue to increase and organize within a moist environment ahead of an eastward-moving cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 Inside the tornado watch - parameters are much lower than many other tornado watches I've seen. Maybe 0-3km CAPE is more impressive though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 Some cold-air funnels being sighted with that tight cyclonic whirl of showers in north-central IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 27 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Some cold-air funnels being sighted with that tight cyclonic whirl of showers in north-central IL. Yeah, look at that precip spin. SPC mentions the chance of non supercell tornadoes in north and central IL area today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 10 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Yeah, look at that precip spin. SPC mentions the chance of non supercell tornadoes in the area today. Danny Neal posted 3 funnel photos on LOT's NWS Chat. Not going to post them here without permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 Tornado Warning just SSW of Columbus. Nice little embedded sup in a multi-cell cluster. Radar indicated atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 That storm is moving straight for the Columbus metro area. Fortunately the ingredients today are not the most favorable for anything more than brief tornadoes, but it is always something to watch when a major metropolitan area is downstream from a potentially tornadic thunderstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 17 minutes ago, geddyweather said: Tornado Warning just SSW of Columbus. Nice little embedded sup in a multi-cell cluster. Radar indicated atm. Eric Elwell on Spectrum1 said its law enforcement confirmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Eric Elwell on Spectrum1 said its law enforcement confirmed. I live right by West Jefferson and I saw the rotation just south of me moving northeast. Very cool. I did not see any tornado but that area where it would have been was blocked by a house. The rotation is over West Jefferson right now. There were also some law enforcement vehicles parked around with their lights on monitoring it-they have moved on now. Just very heavy rain now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 Top 3 crest now forecast on IL river at Lasalle and morris 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 19 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Eric Elwell on Spectrum1 said its law enforcement confirmed. May have been able to drop a quick one near Lily Chapel possibly. That was where the couplet seemed the strongest, as well as where law enforcement reported it. Warning cancelled as the storm has gusted out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 20 hours ago, Chicago WX said: Total and complete devastation here. Going to pull an all-nighter to try to save my parents basement. Thought installing the sub pump in 2015 would help, but this has overwhelmed it. This is sickening. So f*cking tired of this, year after year... Basement flooding is a nightmare, I hope everything works out for you. You may want to grab yourself to 2 quality (Zoeller) sump pumps, both Zoeller extraction pumps I have work great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 32 minutes ago, geddyweather said: May have been able to drop a quick one near Lily Chapel possibly. That was where the couplet seemed the strongest, as well as where law enforcement reported it. Warning cancelled as the storm has gusted out. Lilly Chapel is just a few miles south/southeast of where I am. They are showing wires down and a barn destroyed but I have no idea if it is tornado related damage(although the barn looked pretty well demolished.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 Over an inch for the day already here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 Only 1.45 event total here since Sunday. Been very lucky with no heavy rates with much higher amounts just to my west. 3.5+ since Thursday but so far my basement pump is keeping things from getting out of hand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
totsata Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 Took a walk around the neighborhood this afternoon (route 14 and River Rd for those familiar with the Des Plaines area). Remarkably River Rd. is still open, mainly thanks to the higher floodwall that was raised last year. Sharing a few more pics in the link below. Had to compress the attached ones due to size limitations, but the link has a couple from yesterday as well. I can remove link if it is against any of the forum rules. https://photos.app.goo.gl/4aK73Wqgv8136xK37 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 I was hoping to see the NWS 4-km precipitation analysis from Illinois: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 Looks like the IL river at Morris crested at number 2 on record at 24.85 05/19 09:30 24.85ft 121kcfs (1) 24.91 ft on 04/19/2013 (2) 24.84 ft on 09/16/2008 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 the dams in midland county in mid michigan have been topped and can no longer control the flow of water. https://www.mlive.com/news/saginaw-bay-city/2020/05/midland-county-residents-urged-to-leave-homes-due-to-imminent-dam-failure.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 1 hour ago, chances14 said: the dams in midland county in mid michigan have been topped and can no longer control the flow of water. https://www.mlive.com/news/saginaw-bay-city/2020/05/midland-county-residents-urged-to-leave-homes-due-to-imminent-dam-failure.html Rifle river next door in arenac county broke its record that has been on the books since 1950. Its almost 2 feet higher then the previous record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 546 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... THE TITTABAWASSEE RIVER FROM EDENVILLE DAM TO THE SANFORD DAM IN... NORTH CENTRAL MIDLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN... * UNTIL 845 PM EDT. * AT 544 PM EDT, COUNTY DISPATCH AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THE FAILURE OF EDENVILLE DAM ON THE TITTABAWASSEE RIVER. HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING FROM THE FAILURE OF EDENVILLE DAM. SOURCE...COUNTY DISPATCH. IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EDENVILLE DAM ALONG THE TITTABAWASSEE RIVER. * THE NEAREST DOWNSTREAM TOWN IS SANFORD DAM...LOCATED ABOUT 7 MILES FROM THE EDENVILLE DAM. AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EDENVILLE DAM ALONG THE TITTABAWASSEE RIVER SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF YOU ARE IN LOW LYING AREAS BELOW THE EDENVILLE DAM YOU SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. FOLLOW EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS PROVIDED BY YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS. LAT...LON 4382 8441 4382 8436 4368 8436 4368 8441 FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE DAM FAILURE...OCCURRING 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted May 20, 2020 Share Posted May 20, 2020 Video from youtube of edenville dam failure on wixom lake. Sanford lake dam likely to fail next major evacuations underway in midland mi Wixon lake is/was about 2000 acres and had depths to 40 feet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 20, 2020 Share Posted May 20, 2020 Absolutely catastrophic event ongoing along the Tittabawassee River, if the Sanford Dam fails it will inundate the city of Midland which is being evacuated, Freeland which is also being evacuated and most of Saginaw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted May 20, 2020 Share Posted May 20, 2020 9 hours ago, chances14 said: the dams in midland county in mid michigan have been topped and can no longer control the flow of water. https://www.mlive.com/news/saginaw-bay-city/2020/05/midland-county-residents-urged-to-leave-homes-due-to-imminent-dam-failure.html Flash Flood Warning Flash Flood Statement National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1216 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 MIC051-191145- /O.CON.KAPX.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200519T1145Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Gladwin MI- 1216 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 ...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE CEDAR RIVER BELOW THE CHAPPEL DAM... ...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM EDT FOR the Cedar River below the Chappel Dam in SOUTHWESTERN GLADWIN COUNTY... At 1212 AM EDT, Emergency Management reported flash flooding is imminent on the Cedar River below the Chappel Dam. THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR areas around the Cedar River below the Chappel Dam. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. SOURCE...Emergency Management. IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of low water crossings, small creeks and streams. Flood waters are moving down the Cedar River from the Chapel Dam. All people within this area need to seek higher ground immediately! PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately. Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate precautions to protect life and property. && LAT...LON 4402 8460 4403 8441 4395 8435 4383 8439 4382 8460 FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC This flood warming is what got me to drive yup there at 12am. It was incredible to see. I stayed a while in edenville on the way back to watch the dam. Very creepy watching it, I didn't check out sanford because I was so tire, but I wonder how that dam looked... Gladwin was incredibly bad. A lot of the town was under water. Luckily in town I saw a lot of the houses were actually up on hills so I only saw a few with water in them, but man the river was waaaayyy out of its bank through town. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted May 20, 2020 Share Posted May 20, 2020 1 hour ago, outflow said: Video from youtube of edenville dam failure on wixom lake. Sanford lake dam likely to fail next major evacuations underway in midland mi Wixon lake is/was about 2000 acres and had depths to 40 feet HOLY SHIT! I was there for 2 hrs this morning. I didnt think it would be total failure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 20, 2020 Share Posted May 20, 2020 Here is a video of the Sanford Dam failing, 17 mins in the concrete pilings give way and then everything goes over. Trees, pontoon boats, docks, you name it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted May 20, 2020 Share Posted May 20, 2020 All I can say is wow. I was at Wixom lake and the Edenville dam when it failed. Luckily I was just upstream. Had to still promptly evacuate. I never want to have to be evacuated from a dam failure again. Saw incredible flooding scenes all day across Mid Michigan. Video will of course be coming later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 20, 2020 Share Posted May 20, 2020 River expected to crest at 38' which is 4' over 500 year flood and 4.1' over the all time record. Whitmer in her press conference earlier this hour said they are expecting downtown Midland to be under 9' of water in 12-15 hours. This is historic and will go down as one of the worst disasters ever in state history. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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