RyanDe680 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 302 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020 .SHORT TERM... 249 PM CDT Through Friday... Lingering showers and thunderstorms have diminished in coverage and exited to the east of the area this afternoon. Meanwhile, dew points have surged into the low to mid 60s across the area. The extensive cloud cover has limited surface warming somewhat, but current satellite trends suggest the cirrus beginning to thin which should help temperatures warm up into the low 70s across much of the area. An east-west oriented boundary has set up across southern Iowa into northern IL, combined with strengthening low level jet will set the stage for potential severe weather and heavy rain this evening and overnight. The primary corridor for severe weather has shifted south mainly along and south of I-80 where the better instability will be. Conditions are not as favorable as once thought thanks to the continued precip through the morning and early afternoon hours which has prevented the surface boundary from lifting as far north. In general, expecting things to begin in multi-cell clusters this evening and transition to a more linear mode and track off to the east. Primary severe weather threats will be strong winds on the leading edge of this line. Some hail may be possible with the stronger storms, especially at the onset and a QLCS tornado threat cannot be entirely ruled out. Of greater concern with this system is the potential for training thunderstorms resulting in flash flooding. The upwind Corfidi vectors for propagation into the inflow are light and even oriented to the northeast which suggests that redevelopment behind the leading edge of the line is possible resulting in heavy rain falling over the same areas for multiple hours. Current thinking and trends is that this will favor along and near the I-80 corridor. Have fielded a Flash Flood Watch to account for the potential for heavy rain. Wherever this ultimately sets up could see locally heavy rain amounts of 3-4+ inches of rain when this is all said and done. If the cold pool ends up being stronger it may be able to help push this out of the area more quickly reducing the flooding potential, but current thinking is this will be limited in its influence. Once overnight showers and thunderstorms move out Friday morning a mostly quiet day between systems. Temperatures are expected in the 70s, (60s closest to the lake). A lake breeze is expected to develop in the afternoon which will lead to quick cooling behind it. Aside from the severe weather and flooding threat, dense marine fog is expected across southern Lake Michigan through late morning tomorrow. Petr && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 As a side note, up for some good training. Last time that happened I think was 2015 or 2016 for about 8-10 hours of just pounding rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 this pattern reminds me so much of something more mid summer-like (besides the temps), explosive convective growth in Iowa, modest mid and upper level winds and training thunderstorms later over Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 There's a tornado warning near Chariton, IA, which is south of Des Moines. It's a pretty well-formed hook echo right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, Chinook said: There's a tornado warning near Chariton, IA, which is south of Des Moines. It's a pretty well-formed hook echo right now. Pretty good bounded weak echo region now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0190 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 522 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020 Areas affected...Southern IA...far northern MO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 142120Z - 150200Z SUMMARY...Storms training over areas that received heavy rainfall earlier today could pose a flash flood threat through late this afternoon into early this evening. DISCUSSION...The GOES-16 visible loop showed a line of towering cumulus forming along and just north of a stationary boundary across portions of southern IA. The formation zone lies on the northern edge of the instability gradient, with SBCAPE over 3000 J/KG over northernmost MO into far southern IA. The storms are developing on the northern edge of the better moisture source, and the combination of moisture and instability allowed storms over Atlantic and Guthrie Center counties to produce hourly rainfall rates in excess of 2.25 inches (though the DMX HCA product does indicate the potential for hail contamination) within the last 90 minutes. The 850/300 mb mean wind is generally aligned with the propagation vectors across southern and central IA, which could foster an environment conducive to continued training. However, without a clear source of lift over the boundary, it is not clear just how extensive the convection becomes along and south of the boundary through 15/00z. Both the latest HRRR/parallel HRRR solutions do have a handle on the initial convective placement, but do not necessarily have a handle on the intensity of the rainfall with the storms themselves. Each model shows a general increase in coverage as higher instability is slowly advected along the front into southern IA. The best coverage (based on the simulated radar imagery from the HRRR/parallel HRRR is expected across southwest IA, where an area of 1.00/2.00 inches of rainfall occurred in earlier convection. Storms training over this area could produce an additional 1.00/2.00 inches or train, which pose a flash flood threat through late afternoon and early evening. Since the coverage of storms in the area that received heavy rainfall earlier today is still unclear, flash flooding is considered possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Decent recovery here. Temps jumped to 73 pretty quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 7 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: While there is a still a SLGT worthy severe risk for the area (even if SPC did trim it, they have been meh), the flood threat looks to steal the show overall. Upwards of 1.00-2.50" of rain fell across a corridor within N Illinois last night/this morning. It looks like a good portion of that corridor will overlap with the heaviest for this afternoon/tonight, with upwards of another 2-5" of rain possible. Could be seeing final totals in that overlap region in excess of 6"...if things line up correctly. Can probably toss this now for the most part. Looks like any training with excessive totals will now be more isolated/localized...instead of more widespread as it looked earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Can probably toss this now for the most part. Looks like any training with excessive totals will now be more isolated/localized...instead of more widespread as it looked earlier. I dunno. Pretty stout cluster in Iowa and development near PIA. Could be enough stability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Tornado warning NE of Peoria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 754 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHERN WOODFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 845 PM CDT. * AT 754 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WASHBURN, OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF LACON, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... WASHBURN AROUND 805 PM CDT. VARNA AROUND 820 PM CDT. TOLUCA AROUND 825 PM CDT. WENONA AROUND 835 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 That tornado warned cell is on the far western edge of 200 m2 and higher helicity to the east in In and east of much higher helicity in se IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, Indystorm said: That tornado warned cell is on the far western edge of 200 m2 and higher helicity to the east in In and east of much higher helicity in se IA. Main issue is no surface flow. Probably would have produced otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Main issue is no surface flow. Probably would have produced otherwise. Ya. I do think Chi town environs will be in for a bumpy night with those storms moving ne and storms coming in from the west. Probably a very good lightning show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Ya. I do think Chi town environs will be in for a bumpy night with those storms moving ne and storms coming in from the west. Probably a very good lightning show. Quite a bit of lightning to my south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Hail in momence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Nice light show to the west. Looks like we'll be adding to the 1.40" from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: Can probably toss this now for the most part. Looks like any training with excessive totals will now be more isolated/localized...instead of more widespread as it looked earlier. Might have said this too soon...We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Hail in momence Any flooding you know of there? Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 I chased the supercell that went over Washburn, IL earlier. I ended up getting right under the main rotation and there was some wicked motion. I can't wait to look through my footage on this one! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Awesome continuous lightning with this storm at the moment. Getting 40mph winds and torrential rain. Mid-level meso passing just north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Getting some nice thunder tonight @CheeselandSkies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL 1020 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1045 PM CDT. * AT 1020 PM CDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ATKINSON, OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF KEWANEE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... ANNAWAN AROUND 1030 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE GERMAN CORNER AND JOHNSON-SAUK TRAIL STATE PARK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: Might have said this too soon...We'll see. Yeah I'd stick with your lunchtime call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Closing in on 3" of rain for the day. Over 1.5" in the past hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Came back earlier from a walk. Just in time I thought as the light show just south from here in Joilet was sparking and creeping up. @RyanDe680 are you seeing it? Going to be nice tonight. Activity creeping and knocking on the door now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Best looking radar around here in ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 FFW for Chicago... ~1" of rain in 10min at MDW COOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 There has been a significant meso with the storm moving across Lee Co, with associated WAA wing extending eastward into the Chicago metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: There has been a significant meso with the storm moving across Lee Co, with associated WAA wing extending eastward into the Chicago metro. Storm needs a tor warning. Two couplets in Lee Co currently, and becoming better defined with closer approach to radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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