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Friday, May 15, 2020 Severe Weather Potential


weatherwiz
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54 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

@Typhoon Tip - I'm interested in that idea you had yesterday about a 190* wind direction and how storms fade as the get past I-91. Any suggested reading or just years of obs?

A little of both .. 

Theoretically... 180 wind ( due S ..) if it persists for very long will impart cold oceanic influence from shelf waters in the LI Sound and/or south of the Island ...  That's the termination of the Lab. current, which ...heh, at this time of year, is quite cold. A SSW wind off the M/A passing over those waters get cryo'ed.  Later in the summer...after mid July or so...the surface waters will warm quite a bit in that region ( with a steep thermocline... dangle one's feet sometimes and there's a discerned cold layer lurking just beneath..).. But this early, a S wind will introduced a stable marine influence from the S. Such that a line or cluster of SB CAPE -related on-going convection that attempts to move from it's native instability condition, into this latter region, will thus encounter a loss of those metrics ...and we see the weakening when that occurs. That's "reading" in the sense of education speaking... 

That said, I've seen on a few times over the years ( also ) when there is a 190 to 200 degree wind direction (~), where that actually may not even reflect a very observable difference in the temperature and dewpoint layout, yet... storms still seemed to just dissipate crossing a virtual line that extends from western Long Island to about EEN - ... roughly. Seems when marginal CAPE is in the area, things get sensitive beneath theoretics ( for lack of better terms...) and storms still sniff out the toxicity of cold ocean and don't wanna play.  ha but yeah

As an afterthought - one could probably find some reading material on-line related to papered severe events in NE ...that discuss rotating the wind dial. Sometimes our severe happens when there is a west boundary layer wind, and then N flow aloft, such that the directional shear component of the bulk shear total is still positive, but the surface direction is still a land source. I know I have read this in the past...I just can't recall where exactly.   We've had severe weather on S flows though... This isn't meant as and absolute mitigator - btw - just discussing some 'conditional limitations' that sometimes apply.  We can have those EOF 0 type scud-land spots on low llv LCL higher DP deal in August sometimes... or, a synoptic ripper S/W in June will sometimes EOF 1 rake every so many years.

Bottom line, this region of the country doesn't have much wiggle room and is fragile for set ups.  

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On the 1230 PM update,they have also expanded the 5% risk for tornadoes, as far east
as Boston and as far south as near MA/RI border and into
northern CT. Some mesoscale models have been showing a higher
0-1km helicity than earlier runs in those regions. The basic
thinking, though, has not changed.

 

So weenie-ish it comes with fries.

image.jpeg.f3000f055f620f62dd882741e07f65b3.jpeg

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