PowderBeard Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: In all honesty though That is actually a good thread going on (pretty sure you got this from the SNE wx chase group or whatever it's called?)...person seemed to be looking to gain some knowledge! Oh that is funny. I'm actually not on there. I was just digging through some historical ones my dad mentioned yesterday he was around for in western CT/MA and found that one interesting. He always mentions it when we are heading west on the Pike to Lake George and you can still see the remnants of the old truck stop. Read a few news paper articles on it and everyone always mentions how "the sky turned green" that afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2020 Author Share Posted May 15, 2020 Just now, PowderBeard said: Oh that is funny. I'm actually not on there. I was just digging through some historical ones my dad mentioned yesterday he was around for in western CT/MA and found that one interesting. He always mentions it when we are heading west on the Pike to Lake George and you can still see the remnants of the old truck stop. OMG that is funny LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 He is on here somewhere, cannot remember his user name. Has the 80s ski suit avatar and in western RI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Nice. Congrats north. Continuation of winter’s jacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 10 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: It should shift south and East tomorrow with the faster timing. My guess is you’ll see the nam start moving that way tonight and NW MA to S VT to S NH will have little to nothing with the threat south of there down to about 95 Nailed it! Model Trends ... 00z models including CAMs have trended slower with arrival of cold front and associated convection with bulk of thunderstorms arriving after 00z. Given storms arrive well after peak heating and lack of steep mid level lapse rates to sustain severe convection after sunset, severe threat is slightly lower than earlier thought along with area of greatest risk shifted farther north and west, mainly north of the Mass Pike and west of I-495. Thus SPC has shifted the enhanced risk area farther to the north and west from yesterday`s issuance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, kdxken said: Nailed it! Model Trends ... 00z models including CAMs have trended slower with arrival of cold front and associated convection with bulk of thunderstorms arriving after 00z. Given storms arrive well after peak heating and lack of steep mid level lapse rates to sustain severe convection after sunset, severe threat is slightly lower than earlier thought along with area of greatest risk shifted farther north and west, mainly north of the Mass Pike and west of I-495. Thus SPC has shifted the enhanced risk area farther to the north and west from yesterday`s issuance. Yeah we acknowledged that last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 22 minutes ago, kdxken said: Nailed it! Model Trends ... 00z models including CAMs have trended slower with arrival of cold front and associated convection with bulk of thunderstorms arriving after 00z. Given storms arrive well after peak heating and lack of steep mid level lapse rates to sustain severe convection after sunset, severe threat is slightly lower than earlier thought along with area of greatest risk shifted farther north and west, mainly north of the Mass Pike and west of I-495. Thus SPC has shifted the enhanced risk area farther to the north and west from yesterday`s issuance. Wouldn't be shocked if it keeps trending NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 1 hour ago, PowderBeard said: He is on here somewhere, cannot remember his user name. Has the 80s ski suit avatar and in western RI. 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: In all honesty though That is actually a good thread going on (pretty sure you got this from the SNE wx chase group or whatever it's called?)...person seemed to be looking to gain some knowledge! I wish that Brian G from that group was on here. He is very knowledgeable and level headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2020 Author Share Posted May 15, 2020 16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I wish that Brian G from that group was on here. He is very knowledgeable and level headed. Yeah he is very knowledgeable...always appreciate reading his input on things. Lays things out very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MBRI Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 1 hour ago, PowderBeard said: He is on here somewhere, cannot remember his user name. Has the 80s ski suit avatar and in western RI. I'll have to dig out the photos from my dad. I know we have a bunch from the Great Barrington Twister. My grandparents home in N Caanan Ct. had storm damage the same day as the Stockbridge twister 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 44 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Wouldn't be shocked if it keeps trending NW. I bet I get a crappy rain shower today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 The cells ahead of the line on the HRRR are a bit suspicious to me. They seem to be occurring on the nose of the LLJ and might be elevated in nature...but I'm not sure I buy the coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2020 Author Share Posted May 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The cells ahead of the line on the HRRR are a bit suspicious to me. They seem to be occurring on the nose of the LLJ and might be elevated in nature...but I'm not sure I buy the coverage. I can see a few cells trying to pop but struggling to strengthen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2020 Author Share Posted May 15, 2020 hmm interesting. The balloon launch from ALB yields a crappy 700-500 lapse rate, however, mesoanalysis paints a different picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2020 Author Share Posted May 15, 2020 IDK...I'm not seeing much support for dews into the 60's later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: IDK...I'm not seeing much support for dews into the 60's later 57* here. Up 6* since 6am and climbing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: hmm interesting. The balloon launch from ALB yields a crappy 700-500 lapse rate, however, mesoanalysis paints a different picture Not literally, but you can see it mixes out just a hair above H7. So just barely inside that H5-H7 layer is around 7C/km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 And the 60s dews are coming...it’s early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2020 Author Share Posted May 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Not literally, but you can see it mixes out just a hair above H7. So just barely inside that H5-H7 layer is around 7C/km. yup...I can see that now. I did actually notice that and wondered but didn't give it a ton of thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Haven't been on the computer since yesterday. Enhanced bumped NW as everyone knows but me. Temp is now 55F seems a bit warmer than modeled for this hour. Frickin bear got the feeder last night. I was going to take it down this weekend. Oh well. Captured him on the Nest cam at 1025pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2020 Author Share Posted May 15, 2020 I bet by next update they retract the slight quite a bit. My guess is they have it for the potential for discrete ahead of the main line but meh. Still looks like there will be a nice line into western MA and perhaps NW CT with some damaging wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said: I bet I get a crappy rain shower today. we stay dry...dry cfp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I bet by next update they retract the slight quite a bit. My guess is they have it for the potential for discrete ahead of the main line but meh. Still looks like there will be a nice line into western MA and perhaps NW CT with some damaging wind gusts. I'm assuming this as well. 65/60 where I'm at (Sullivan NY) but the line stoll looks on track to weaken by the time it makes it here after dark. Not seeing much suggesting discrete potential either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: we stay dry...dry cfp no death and destruction? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 26 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: no death and destruction? we stay dry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 We meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 3 hours ago, kdxken said: Nailed it! Model Trends ... 00z models including CAMs have trended slower with arrival of cold front and associated convection with bulk of thunderstorms arriving after 00z. Given storms arrive well after peak heating and lack of steep mid level lapse rates to sustain severe convection after sunset, severe threat is slightly lower than earlier thought along with area of greatest risk shifted farther north and west, mainly north of the Mass Pike and west of I-495. Thus SPC has shifted the enhanced risk area farther to the north and west from yesterday`s issuance. Careful -... the psychology there seems to implicitly mock the setup as though it's cased closed a waste of time and blah blah.. It's not just you...it's the last couple of pages of defensive annoying posts. There'll be a 75 dbz core SC with a hook and funnel rippin down the Mohawk trail at 5pm and all these same people would be hypocritically in gaiety - I get it that this is a social media pass-time, and therefore people can freely express without needing to sound intellectually responsible ... but sometimes, that recess becomes a bit too overwhelming. There is a reason why it is bolded and banged in all the literature, " ..in or AROUND ..." watches, warnings, and special interest regions et al. All that, plus, that above missive shows either a lack of foresight, or... a lack of experience when dealing with New England convection. Convective events almost always turn S early around here, usually earlier than modeled and/or interpreted by offices/agencies that use them, too. Those of us that have lived around here for decades know that tends to occur ... more often than not. It is better for convective enthusiasm if one is on the southern edge of hashing and/or watch designated regions, because of this right-turning behavior. If we wanna get into why the latter takes place...it's probably just dynamic propagation toward the higher CAPE. Which in most situations around this geography...that tends to be toward CT.. Plus, our geography tends to support cool pooling, such that early outflow might aggregate and pool over northern/NE zones from earlier activity, such that when additional clusters come in... they tend to develop and/or track along the southern edge of amorphously defined boundaries that end up along an axis of NYC to PVD (~)... We who've lived around here also know all too-well about the "splitting" lines phenomenon, too; that seems to know where any given observer happens to be watching radar as thought it's an Electron Double-split experiment with vendetta against good intents and purposes... Joking aside splitting lines around one's community seemingly on purpose..heh, is actually probably related to the southern portion propagating toward the better CAPE, while the northern portion is tapping into better S/W mechanics... so each go their separate ways and leaves intior SNE jilted ... that is, for those that need weather phenomenon as an emotional outlet. All of these phenomenon actually means one is proooobably better off along and/or just south of these hashed regions/ and/or designated Watches. Plus, just looking around at the data, I don't see that this is less threatening - myself - below the typical expectation of New England underperformance, anyway. Which that fairly means, we could not get anything and it would not diminish the recognition value and predictive necessity of this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 maybe, just maybe a thundersprinkle later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Dr. Dews said: maybe, just maybe a thundersprinkle later on How bout a thunderous............. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Clearing out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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