Friday, May 15, 2020 Severe Weather Potential

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Clear blue skies please.

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There is a rapid increase in the LLJ after like 22z in ern NY and adjacent western MA and VT. That is something to watch. It's got a chunk of decent theta-e, so a potential quick destabilization in those areas. Obviously cloud cover and exact storm formation is key, but there are some decent ingredients. NAM looked impressive in those areas as far as kinematics go.

that's going to be the exact area to watch...relatively small area too. That's where the greatest and really only tornado potential exists I think.

I do think though the enhanced either gets removed or trimmed significantly...all of CT removed, a large part of MA, and even trimmed from VT/NH and bring the slight down to where the enhanced is in those areas. 

[JC-CT]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s going to be 3 or 4 seperate Tors in Mass and CT tomorrow. HRRR is wild

Happens all the time

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

that's going to be the exact area to watch...relatively small area too. That's where the greatest and really only tornado potential exists I think.

I do think though the enhanced either gets removed or trimmed significantly...all of CT removed, a large part of MA, and even trimmed from VT/NH and bring the slight down to where the enhanced is in those areas. 

It should shift south and East tomorrow with the faster timing. My guess is you’ll see the nam start moving that way tonight and NW MA to S VT to S NH will have little to nothing with the threat south of there down to about 95

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It should shift south and East tomorrow with the faster timing. My guess is you’ll see the nam start moving that way tonight and NW MA to S VT to S NH will have little to nothing with the threat south of there down to about 95

faster timing? Don't think the faster timing idea happens. This convection is all actually looking to be associated with the cold front itself. Which is actually a little...uncommon (maybe not the right word) but don't even see much of a pre-frontal trough signal which is what usually sparks off the convection anyways. The cold front doesn't come close to us until late evening. We are going to see weakening llvl lapse rates due to loss of heating and the overall look to me doesn't really scream enough wind damage for the enhanced risk. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

faster timing? Don't think the faster timing idea happens. This convection is all actually looking to be associated with the cold front itself. Which is actually a little...uncommon (maybe not the right word) but don't even see much of a pre-frontal trough signal which is what usually sparks off the convection anyways. The cold front doesn't come close to us until late evening. We are going to see weakening llvl lapse rates due to loss of heating and the overall look to me doesn't really scream enough wind damage for the enhanced risk. 

Typically these things almost always speed up on timing .. I can’t recall many that ended up slower . What looks like 10:00 Pm May end up 4-7

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Typically these things almost always speed up on timing .. I can’t recall many that ended up slower . What looks like 10:00 Pm May end up 4-7

I'm thinking 7-11 I agree these things usually speed up on timing but in those instance we have a pre-frontal trough driving the convection. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm thinking 7-11 I agree these things usually speed up on timing but in those instance we have a pre-frontal trough driving the convection. 

Which is why the nod is to HRRR

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Which is why the nod is to HRRR

The 18z looked like garbage. Outside of some scattered pockets of wind damage and some hail I think most will be crying bust tomorrow night b/c they had way too high expectations. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

The 18z looked like garbage. Outside of some scattered pockets of wind damage and some hail I think most will be crying bust tomorrow night b/c they had way too high expectations. 

Only you and maybe one other person get visibly upset over severe busts. 

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The 18z looked like garbage. Outside of some scattered pockets of wind damage and some hail I think most will be crying bust tomorrow night b/c they had way too high expectations. 

Could certainly happen. Usually does 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Better shot James marries a super model 

[weatherwiz]

Kiss the enhanced risk goodbye 

[PowderBeard]

Way too late. Still think someone pulls a TOR warning in Mass.

[weatherwiz]

Could even trim the slight risk way back 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Could even trim the slight risk way back 

DIT is going to be very unhappy lol

[Typhoon Tip]

00z NAM looked threatening 
 

 

[weatherwiz]

What the hell is with some people’s obsession in comparing the SPC risk area from 5/15/18 to tomorrow???? Like WTF??? Who gives a shit how similar the areas look...wtf does that have to do with anything???  Absolutely fooking ridiculous. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Wiz’s nerves are more bi-polar than an EOF5’s radar gate when he has to wait a whole day before a convection setup - Jesus  

nothing’s changed, dude. It’s a great setup ... probably top percentile that won’t produce anyway just because it’s NE so settle down. 

[andyhb]

Pretty solid agreement from the 00z convective allowing models (HRRR/ARW/NSSL) for a few supercells in upstate NY and then tracking along the MA-VT/NH borders later. I'm not a huge fan of the relative lack of steeper mid level lapse rates, but at least low level lapse rates are half decent leading to some rather large 0-3 km CAPE. Good wind profiles as well, wouldn't sleep on this setup up there.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Pretty solid agreement from the 00z convective allowing models (HRRR/ARW/NSSL) for a few supercells in upstate NY and then tracking along the MA-VT/NH borders later. I'm not a huge fan of the relative lack of steeper mid level lapse rates, but at least low level lapse rates are half decent leading to some rather large 0-3 km CAPE. Good wind profiles as well, wouldn't sleep on this setup up there.

Fwiw the 00Z NAM was a classic 12z warm thrust with the partial clearing climo that’s a pretty typical behavior in getting the job done around here 

[andyhb]

3 km NAM joins the party near the Capital District into S VT.

Can't say you pull area-averaged soundings like this too often up there.

[Torch Tiger]

let's get after it 

...Northeast States and Ohio Valley regions...

   Shortwave trough now situated over ND near the international border
   will continue into the Great Lakes Friday, reaching the northeast
   states later Friday afternoon and evening. A low amplitude impulse
   may precede this feature. By late afternoon the accompanying cold
   front should extend from a surface low in upstate NY southwest into
   the lower Great Lakes and OH Valley. Warm front will extend from the
   surface low through southern New England. Modest low-level moisture
   with upper 50s to around 60 F dewpoints will advect through the
   pre-frontal warm sector and contribute to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE as
   the surface layer warms during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are
   expected to redevelop along and ahead of the front by early to mid
   afternoon within the weakly capped, destabilizing warm sector. A
   mid-level jet within the base of the approaching shortwave trough
   will contribute to 35-45 kt effective bulk shear over the northeast
   U.S. supporting organized storms including a few supercells and
   bowing segments with damaging wind the main threat. The low-level
   jet is forecast to strengthen by late afternoon into early evening
   across the northeast U.S. with 0-1 km hodographs becoming sufficient
   for isolated tornadoes, especially with any storms interacting with
   the warm front across southern New England. Farther west across OH,
   deep-layer shear will be weaker, but wind profiles with 40-45 kt
   flow in the 700-500 mb layer will be supportive of a few damaging
   wind gusts as the boundary layer destabilizes during the afternoon.

[Torch Tiger]

Oops nm, from this afternoon.

[yoda]

[yoda]

 

 

[yoda]

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1254 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
   OF NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are forecast across portions of the Northeast
   States this afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across
   the southern Plains while isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are
   possible across portions of the central High Plains.

   ...Northeastern States...

   Water-vapor imagery depicts a strong short-wave trough over the
   upper Great Lakes early this morning. This feature is forecast to
   eject across southern ON/QC by 16/00z as a 75kt 500mb speed max
   translates along the international border then into southern New
   England later tonight. A weak surface low should develop along the
   cold front over lower MI by sunrise then track toward western NY by
   early afternoon. This evolution favors strong boundary-layer heating
   from the central Appalachians into upstate NY where surface
   temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 70s prior to frontal
   passage. Latest thinking is convection will reintensify along the
   wind shift across southern ON by 17-18z then spread east within a
   westerly flow regime that should favor updraft organization. This
   activity will develop along southern influence of aforementioned
   short wave, and surface-6km shear is more than adequate for possible
   supercells, though a mixed storm mode is the most likely scenario.
   Damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes can be expected with
   severe thunderstorm clusters that spread from west to east across NY
   toward southern New England by early evening.

[weatherwiz]

Even if we saw discrete ahead of the main line or stuff develop mid-afternoon I don’t think they do much. There just isn’t enough support. If CAPE was much higher sure...that could be enough perhaps but lack of a trigger and neutral to rising heights isn’t going to cut it. 

[PowderBeard]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 There just isn’t enough support. If CAPE was much higher sure...that could be enough perhaps but lack of a trigger and neutral to rising heights isn’t going to cut it. 

But the lines look similar, let's just run with it and post it on the Twitter to cause panic! LOL

 

 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

But the lines look similar, let's just run with it and post it on the Twitter to cause panic! LOL

 

 

 

In all honesty though That is actually a good thread going on (pretty sure you got this from the SNE wx chase group or whatever it's called?)...person seemed to be looking to gain some knowledge!