CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Do you really think we see dewpoints in the 63-65F range? There is model support for it but I am struggling to find any evidence that happens. I can see 61-62 happening. Also, I see some on social media going sounding happy and this is something I've noticed and not sure if there is some type of issue with generating soundings but some of the soundings (SHARPpy) people are tossing around have rather high lapse rates and dewpoints and thus throwing out some big CAPE values. I could see those dews. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Is tomorrow a washout? I’m working 7-3 and am hoping to get some mowing done. Will I have a window? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 HRRR going wild with SUPs south of the warm front and seemingly weak trigger. That looks strange to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Is tomorrow a washout? I’m working 7-3 and am hoping to get some mowing done. Will I have a window? Looks fine. Maybe a few shwrs before 8a. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 RPM has some renegade cells too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2020 Author Share Posted May 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR going wild with SUPs south of the warm front and seemingly weak trigger. That looks strange to me? The HRRR would be borderline localized tornado outbreak but yeah that looks strange to me as well. It does develop some pretty high CAPE with not much of a cap so perhaps that's the reason? But I just don't see enough support (trigger) for that scenario. The HRRR also seems to have a bias with WF supercells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 HRRR matches HREF. It’s coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: HRRR matches HREF. It’s coming Wind and hail for all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 No EML in this particular set up I presume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 13 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Wind and hail for all? Spinners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 31 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Are you in FL, or back up in Woodstock? Still in FL, but plenty of friends and family in the Woodstock/Dudley area. Weather here gets boring to follow lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 29 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The HRRR would be borderline localized tornado outbreak but yeah that looks strange to me as well. It does develop some pretty high CAPE with not much of a cap so perhaps that's the reason? But I just don't see enough support (trigger) for that scenario. Was thinking similar, overdone. Random obs, it also put dewpoints 65-70 around Springfield/Hippy Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2020 Author Share Posted May 14, 2020 38 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: No EML in this particular set up I presume? No EML. Lapse rates will be ehhh. 16 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: Was thinking similar, overdone. Random obs, it also put dewpoints 65-70 around Springfield/Hippy Valley. yeah those dews aren't happening lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR going wild with SUPs south of the warm front and seemingly weak trigger. That looks strange to me? It's a big fan of doing that. See the May high risk day from last year. It loves trigger supercells in an environment with no trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: No EML. Lapse rates will be ehhh. yeah those dews aren't happening lol I could see some 65-66F dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 There is a weak EML Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2020 Author Share Posted May 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: I could see some 65-66F dews. Sort of advecting in from the OV? That might be what I was overlooking...source region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Sort of advecting in from the OV? That might be what I was overlooking...source region OV/MAtl Those mid 50s dews start advecting into SNE by sunrise just aloft at 925. Anyone still dealing with residual cooler sfc air should have that mix out pretty quickly. Then we pool it up a bit more as the day goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2020 Author Share Posted May 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: OV/MAtl Those mid 50s dews start advecting into SNE by sunrise just aloft at 925. Anyone still dealing with residual cooler sfc air should have that mix out pretty quickly. Then we pool it up a bit more as the day goes on. Gotcha. Well if we can get dews around 65 that will at least help boost instability given lapse rates won't be too great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 33 minutes ago, dendrite said: I could see some 65-66F dews. That seems crazy for just 24 hours away. Current dew at CON is 16F with 15% RH. BDL at 20F and 19%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That seems crazy for just 24 hours away. Current dew at CON is 16F with 15% RH. BDL at 20F and 19%. We go from 15F to 65F dews in winter all of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Looks like a typical NEastern severe setup with our typical caveats. That said, can count on some scattered wind damage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 If Patrick Henry were a meteorologist he would have said, “Give me lapse rates or give me death” “and a decent EML wouldn’t hurt either” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Enhanced risk for central MA/CT? Danger ahead ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 HREF looked good from nrn VT into MA and srn VT, srn NH into metro west BOS. Even maybe interior SE MA. Looked like possible fun near the warm front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Wow so it is! I just want something to survive to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Oak obliterators and maple maulers for all. Will he post about his fake tornado? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Wow so it is! I just want something to survive to the coast Overall though the threat may be more north where better forcing is, but lots of questions still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Oak obliterators and maple maulers for all. Seems pike and south and east to BOS is best spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Mm... lived in this region of the country too long... If the wind is veered anything more than 190 (~) than anywhere east of I-91 (N-S) over eastern Mass looking at an incredible severe day of gentle elevated sheet lightning ...maybe even a "die line" as far west as the CT River Valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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