Chrisrotary12 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Timing has slowed to near or after 00z. Stick a fork in this one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 54 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: @Typhoon Tip - I'm interested in that idea you had yesterday about a 190* wind direction and how storms fade as the get past I-91. Any suggested reading or just years of obs? A little of both .. Theoretically... 180 wind ( due S ..) if it persists for very long will impart cold oceanic influence from shelf waters in the LI Sound and/or south of the Island ... That's the termination of the Lab. current, which ...heh, at this time of year, is quite cold. A SSW wind off the M/A passing over those waters get cryo'ed. Later in the summer...after mid July or so...the surface waters will warm quite a bit in that region ( with a steep thermocline... dangle one's feet sometimes and there's a discerned cold layer lurking just beneath..).. But this early, a S wind will introduced a stable marine influence from the S. Such that a line or cluster of SB CAPE -related on-going convection that attempts to move from it's native instability condition, into this latter region, will thus encounter a loss of those metrics ...and we see the weakening when that occurs. That's "reading" in the sense of education speaking... That said, I've seen on a few times over the years ( also ) when there is a 190 to 200 degree wind direction (~), where that actually may not even reflect a very observable difference in the temperature and dewpoint layout, yet... storms still seemed to just dissipate crossing a virtual line that extends from western Long Island to about EEN - ... roughly. Seems when marginal CAPE is in the area, things get sensitive beneath theoretics ( for lack of better terms...) and storms still sniff out the toxicity of cold ocean and don't wanna play. ha but yeah As an afterthought - one could probably find some reading material on-line related to papered severe events in NE ...that discuss rotating the wind dial. Sometimes our severe happens when there is a west boundary layer wind, and then N flow aloft, such that the directional shear component of the bulk shear total is still positive, but the surface direction is still a land source. I know I have read this in the past...I just can't recall where exactly. We've had severe weather on S flows though... This isn't meant as and absolute mitigator - btw - just discussing some 'conditional limitations' that sometimes apply. We can have those EOF 0 type scud-land spots on low llv LCL higher DP deal in August sometimes... or, a synoptic ripper S/W in June will sometimes EOF 1 rake every so many years. Bottom line, this region of the country doesn't have much wiggle room and is fragile for set ups. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2020 Author Share Posted May 15, 2020 55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: HRRR tears big renegade storms across CT later this afternoon. That’s our hope. Tonight’s will just be a light show Those aren't supercells. They're just crap to only get people excited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 What time does SPC update the convective outlook. Must be soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2020 Author Share Posted May 15, 2020 2 hours ago, dendrite said: And the 60s dews are coming...it’s early. Yup! pushing on the doorstep now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2020 Author Share Posted May 15, 2020 Just now, wxeyeNH said: What time does SPC update the convective outlook. Must be soon? ~12:30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Clouds quickly moving back in. 77/dew of 60 which has been in place since this morning. Probably not moving much further up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 72/61. Feeling warm with a 5-10mph breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 BDL dew point up 40F from yesterday at this time... 18F to 58F. Folks will feel that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 73.8/59.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Oh boy ASH in the enhanced risk. Better gas up the chase car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Looks like the marine layer is trying to push back westward along coastal ME/NH/MA on vis sat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Feels great out today. Hoping for a dying t-shower later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Why didn't they do the radar repairs during March... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2020 Author Share Posted May 15, 2020 34 minutes ago, dendrite said: Looks like the marine layer is trying to push back westward along coastal ME/NH/MA on vis sat. Quite a bit of MLCIN in those areas and even through E CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Hot and humid today in agawam right now 79 feels like 100 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 16 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Why didn't they do the radar repairs during March... They didn't want to work on it during the peak of our severe season. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 71/55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Hitting (refresh) while eagerly awaiting the mesoscale discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 80.3/63, how high will they go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 On the 1230 PM update,they have also expanded the 5% risk for tornadoes, as far east as Boston and as far south as near MA/RI border and into northern CT. Some mesoscale models have been showing a higher 0-1km helicity than earlier runs in those regions. The basic thinking, though, has not changed. So weenie-ish it comes with fries. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Wow the NWS has been gung ho with this threat all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2020 Author Share Posted May 15, 2020 Tough to tell but looks like a sea breeze racing north through CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2020 Author Share Posted May 15, 2020 Heights also been kinda neutral here...don't fall until later. The idea of these pre-squall line supercells is not looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Feels like summeh at least. Broke a slight sweat at the driving range. Sunny. Like it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 18z special sounding was launched at ALY 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 80/60 in NE CT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 The front is over my house. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 the area of greatest tornado threat has been increased and also expanded south to include CT on the latest SPC update, interesting.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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