weatherwiz Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Been meaning to start this thread since Monday but I was all threaded out. Anyways, severe weather season is starting to get very active around here as we have another threat right around the corner...and this one comes with our first early taste of late spring or early summer as a warm front tickles us and we taste some humidity. Obviously, this early in the season the biggest question is northward warm front progression. It does appear the warm front will at least push into central New England. South of the warm front dewpoints should get into the lower 60's. While not great, mid-level lapse rates will be around 6.5 C/KM. With surface temperatures perhaps pushing into the 70's we should generate enough instability, when combined with ample wind shear to produce the development of t'storms; including the risk for some strong-to-severe t'storms. As usual with this type of setup and time of year, the greatest risk will be away from the marine influence. When considering timing of the fropa or pre-frontal trough the greatest potential will likely be eastern PA, southeast NY, southern VT, and western MA/CT. Strong winds aloft, inverted-V sounding signatures, and linear storm mode indicate main severe hazard will be damaging wind gusts. However, in the vicinity of the warm front there will be enough backing of the llvl winds to yield the risk of rotation and an enhanced risk for hail or a brief tornado. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 40 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Been meaning to start this thread since Monday but I was all threaded out. Anyways, severe weather season is starting to get very active around here as we have another threat right around the corner...and this one comes with our first early taste of late spring or early summer as a warm front tickles us and we taste some humidity. Obviously, this early in the season the biggest question is northward warm front progression. It does appear the warm front will at least push into central New England. South of the warm front dewpoints should get into the lower 60's. While not great, mid-level lapse rates will be around 6.5 C/KM. With surface temperatures perhaps pushing into the 70's we should generate enough instability, when combined with ample wind shear to produce the development of t'storms; including the risk for some strong-to-severe t'storms. As usual with this type of setup and time of year, the greatest risk will be away from the marine influence. When considering timing of the fropa or pre-frontal trough the greatest potential will likely be eastern PA, southeast NY, southern VT, and western MA/CT. Strong winds aloft, inverted-V sounding signatures, and linear storm mode indicate main severe hazard will be damaging wind gusts. However, in the vicinity of the warm front there will be enough backing of the llvl winds to yield the risk of rotation and an enhanced risk for hail or a brief tornado. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Nam sounding for central MA friday 21z: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 13, 2020 Author Share Posted May 13, 2020 4 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Some of these parameters are really nice looking but I'm not a huge fan of the lack of stronger ulvl support...at least enough to make things super interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 let's go ...Northeast States... A northern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress quickly eastward/southeastward across the Great Lakes into the Northeast States on Friday. Strong mid-level flow attendant to this system will spread eastward just ahead of it while an associated surface low and cold front also move across the Northeast. Temperatures and dewpoints ahead of this front are forecast to reach the mid 70s and upper 50s/low 60s, respectively, resulting in modest instability. Thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon as the front interacts with this instability. Low to mid-level flow will strengthen over the region as the shortwave trough approaches, contributing to both moderate vertical shear and fast storm motions. Fast-moving bowing line segments, which may eventually amalgamate into a coherent convective line, will be the predominant storm mode. Damaging wind gusts from these bowing segments will be the primary severe hazard, although some isolated hail may occur, particularly with any more cellular/discrete storms. Additionally, moderate veering of the low-level wind profiles will support a low-probably tornado potential with both discrete development ahead of the line and line-embedded circulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 First slight risk of the year.. congrats paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: First slight risk of the year.. congrats paul You're new home is also great for severe. We have been rocked the past couple summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2020 Author Share Posted May 14, 2020 16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: First slight risk of the year.. congrats paul I am a bit shocked it's so far east. I think the greatest overall potential is to our northwest. What kinda sucks for us is timing but there seems to be enough instability left to keep the threat for damaging winds through the I-84 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Looks like a lot of the action is along warm front and even near backdoor front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Decent s/w support for storms on the cold front in the evening though. Definitely an interesting day I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2020 Author Share Posted May 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like a lot of the action is along warm front and even near backdoor front. 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Decent s/w support for storms on the cold front in the evening though. Definitely an interesting day I think. Definitely agreed the warm front could be a pretty decent focal point...especially if any convection can form along it. There definitely seems to be at least enough support to keep a line of t'storms moving into the region (even after sunset) but I think the overall greatest potential for severe wx is going to be just west of us...I think timing kinda hurts us. That strong piece of vort tracking into NNE happens just a bit too late. It would seem like the greatest chance for any severe associated with the warm front would be mid-to-late afternoon, however, there may not be much overall support for developing convection then. Strongest height falls seem to arrive shortly after the best ingredients would be in place. But we should certainly see some scattered wind damage tomorrow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 HRRR makes much more sense than NAM in terms of frontal placement and timing. Earlier vs later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 How do the soundings look for NE CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2020 Author Share Posted May 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: How do the soundings look for NE CT? Should be enough instability left to keep potential for some damaging wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: HRRR makes much more sense than NAM in terms of frontal placement and timing. Earlier vs later Tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Ok. I'm intrigued. Let's see how today's convection can screw this up. Most models have today's leftover convection passing offshore before 12z tomorrow morning. Hopefully it's out of gas, otherwise we run the risk of it throwing a backdoor well inland and beating back the warm front. But also....we may need that morning convection to add a little extra moisture to the air. Boy it is dry out there today. For those in eastern SNE, it is most certainly a race between convection and a potential backdoor. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tossed Over the NAM at 11:00 Pm? Lol..Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2020 Author Share Posted May 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tossed Do you really think we see dewpoints in the 63-65F range? There is model support for it but I am struggling to find any evidence that happens. I can see 61-62 happening. Also, I see some on social media going sounding happy and this is something I've noticed and not sure if there is some type of issue with generating soundings but some of the soundings (SHARPpy) people are tossing around have rather high lapse rates and dewpoints and thus throwing out some big CAPE values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 TOR’s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Mentioned this yesterday in the May thread that it would/should not be surprising if SPC upgraded what was then hashed out MRGL ( to SLGHT ) for our area. Has the hallmarks ... A warm frontal passage wedges warm sector into the region circa 12 to 15z ... After associated early showers and an elevated thunder clap or two freshens up the llv theta-e ...the sun burst through and the south facing windows brighten up suddenly mid morning. Temp bounces 14.8F in a half hour. By early afternoon blue tinted facades of the distant hill tops, along with the mash up smell of summer theta-e with early biomist turns into tropopausal rollers. The day of Monson Massacre did that... June 1986 drecho down Rt 2 did that... Worcester 1953 did that... From my personal logging, that seems to be a good way to get it done in NE. Have the day dawn fighting a warm boundary, said boundary wins by 10 am... Clearing peels open a rich warm primed air mass and sun does the rest ahead of some synoptic forcing later in the day ... None of those in that list above are intended as outright analogs ... but the orbital perspective of a warm wedge followed by evacuating S/W later in the day does bear at least a conceptual similarity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Can’t wait for my +RA behind the wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2020 Author Share Posted May 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Can’t wait for my +RA behind the wedge. unless it's an LP supercell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: unless it's an LP supercell 3k NAM is close to warm sectoring here. It'll probably be relegated to Cheshire/Hillsborough counties though. Congrats Mitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 3km nammy does a pretty good job of suppressing action out ahead of the front as Wiz mentioned for lack of a trigger. Weak height rises during the course of the entire day. Granted it does get fairly unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2020 Author Share Posted May 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: 3k NAM is close to warm sectoring here. It'll probably be relegated to Cheshire/Hillsborough counties though. Congrats Mitch SW VT/extreme NW MA could be a really good spot for something but I think the best ingredients are going to go to waste...don't see much of a trigger to generate convection during the afternoon...or at least enough support for deep enough convection to utilize the dynamics aloft. Going to be ugly on the cold side of the front...rain and 50's...yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2020 Author Share Posted May 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, radarman said: 3km nammy does a pretty good job of suppressing action out ahead of the front as Wiz mentioned for lack of a trigger. Weak height rises during the course of the entire day. Granted it does get fairly unstable. I wonder if the instability is overdone. Soundings from the 3km NAM show pretty steep mid-level lapse rates which may be overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Ryan is amped. Big day for SNE tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Over the NAM at 11:00 Pm? Lol..Why? Because I don't think it's going to play out exactly like that. It all depends on how far WF gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 3 hours ago, Modfan2 said: How do the soundings look for NE CT? Are you in FL, or back up in Woodstock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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