Solak Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 7 hours ago, Solak said: Not a lot of warm water to work with north of the Bahamas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Update... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 2020 be like...Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 14, 2020 Author Share Posted May 14, 2020 Recon tentatively scheduled for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 16, 2020 Author Share Posted May 16, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 Well, if the euro is right, any talk of the summer drought being underway wound be a distant memory. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 Models have moved into two main camps overnight. Out to sea, or pulled in to the mainland by the ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 16, 2020 Author Share Posted May 16, 2020 31 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Models have moved into two main camps overnight. Out to sea, or pulled in to the mainland by the ULL Spann DOES have a funny bone after all 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 Surface low seems to be forming right on Daytona Beach. As NWS said, too much shear for this thing to get going. For what it's worth, the NAM (I know) has a frisky tropical low moving into the Carolina coastline tomorrow and proceeding up through the Piedmont with heavy rain. Also, towards the end of the GFS, it has been advertising development in the western Caribbean/GOM for a couple days now. It did a good job with Arthur in the long range as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted May 27, 2020 Share Posted May 27, 2020 NAM nailed this. We have Bertha 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 27, 2020 Share Posted May 27, 2020 Raining buckets here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted May 27, 2020 Share Posted May 27, 2020 Welcome Bertha! May your rains be small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anonmet_GSO Posted June 1, 2020 Share Posted June 1, 2020 Tropical trouble may develop in the GoM from the system that is traversing over land from the Eastern Pacific in the Gulf. System is progged to reach Tropical Storm strength a couple hundred miles south of LA. Spagetti plot hinting at a generally northward movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 TD3 has formed off the western Yucatan peninsula. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 92L should be watched for the southeast coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 12zSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Euro not impressed now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 Slight tick west when looking at 12z, 18z, and 0zSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nuggetpalooza Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 So for a layman who enjoys trying to make sense of the models you guys post, is it safe to say there's about a 40-60 chance of a SE landfall with this? Or are there certain models which are assumed to be more accurate? *disclaimer that I understand that where it will be in 9-10 days is just about the DEFINITION of unpredictable* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 So for a layman who enjoys trying to make sense of the models you guys post, is it safe to say there's about a 40-60 chance of a SE landfall with this? Or are there certain models which are assumed to be more accurate? *disclaimer that I understand that where it will be in 9-10 days is just about the DEFINITION of unpredictable*10-20%, time will tellSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 There may not even be a storm at all at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 System has really faded on modelling, has more dry air to contend with that we thought earlier, and now looks to be shear-plagued until it gets to about the area of the Bahamas. Also may have limitations due to land impacts if something can even get going. The ceiling is much lower for this system than what it looked yesterday. Very similar setup that led to the demise of Gonzalo. Only thing I'll say though is these two back to back systems are priming the atmosphere somewhat. Next system coming off the coast seems to have a more moist environment ahead of it. In the MDR region, it seems it takes a wave train sometimes before a system can break through, especially early in the season. I believe these systems are doing just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 System has really faded on modelling, has more dry air to contend with that we thought earlier, and now looks to be shear-plagued until it gets to about the area of the Bahamas. Also may have limitations due to land impacts if something can even get going. The ceiling is much lower for this system than what it looked yesterday. Very similar setup that led to the demise of Gonzalo. Only thing I'll say though is these two back to back systems are priming the atmosphere somewhat. Next system coming off the coast seems to have a more moist environment ahead of it. In the MDR region, it seems it takes a wave train sometimes before a system can break through, especially early in the season. I believe these systems are doing just that.Bone dry at 500mbSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 Whatever becomes of 92L, the weaker the system stays the further west it'll be able to go. Even if this maxes out as a weak TS, it may make its way into the Gulf before turning north. Canadian model shows this the best and would give central NC a widespread rain event. That seems to be the greatest potential impact from this system. Just too much shear and land in it's way not to mention the fact it still has not consolidated. I cannot see a path to a strong system at this point. It's also moving and forecast to remain moving extremely quick, which can make it tough to organize substantially given the initial organization, or lack there of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted July 29, 2020 Share Posted July 29, 2020 Some interesting runs so far with the 18z models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 30, 2020 Author Share Posted July 30, 2020 Still a pretty ragged mess. Once it gets off the shredder islands, it may become more interesting. Definitely not vertically stacked at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 NAM doing NAM things this run, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Tropical Storm watches up here in S FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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