Sydney Claridge Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 1 hour ago, yoda said: First moderate risk day in quite a long time... since mid June? Wind driven... and it's a small mod risk ETA: never seen a hatched wind on a 15 percent before... on the new Day 2 I've noticed that SPC has included hatching on 15% wind risks, starting earlier this year, when there is potential for a major damaging wind event but there is a degree of uncertainty as to whether said threat will actually materialize (such as capping, etc.). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 1630 outlook further expands the moderate risk into NW Wisconsin, with rather concerning wording at hand. 7000 SBCAPE pooling in SE ND already. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioWX Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 PDS severe thunderstorm watch issued for portions of MN, ND, and SD. >95%/80% severe wind probabilities. The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and central Minnesota Southeast North Dakota Northern South Dakota * Effective this Friday afternoon and Saturday morning from 535 PM until 100 AM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds expected with scattered significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A couple tornadoes possible SUMMARY...An intense linear-type complex of storms is expected to evolve into a derecho this evening and produce widespread/significant damaging winds as it accelerates east-southeastward across the region. Isolated large hail is also possible, and a tornado risk cannot be ruled out, particularly near the warm front. ...Guyer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 14, 2020 Share Posted August 14, 2020 Seems to be some potential in central and northern MN tomorrow provided we see recovery after tonight's MCS. Certainly an upper percentile strength LLJ in place for the time of year, although deep layer shear magnitude/orientation could be a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 97mph wind gust reported in the MCS in SD tonight PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1119 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1100 PM TSTM WND GST 2 ENE BUNKER 44.25N 101.06W 08/27/2020 M97 MPH STANLEY SD PUBLIC PERSONAL WEATHER STATION. RADAR ESTIMATED TIME AND APPROXIMATE LOCATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1112 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1101 PM TSTM WND GST 1 E HAYES 44.37N 101.00W 08/27/2020 M104 MPH STANLEY SD PUBLIC PERSONAL WEATHER STATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm920 Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Nasty MCS tonight across South Dakota. Several 80+ wind reports so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A777 Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Watch out until midnight, 40/20 TOR probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 First tornado warning for Missouri for this Saturday evening episode. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 620 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI... * UNTIL 645 PM CST. * AT 620 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SENECA, OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BAXTER SPRINGS, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NEOSHO... SENECA... GRANBY... DIAMOND... WENTWORTH... RITCHEY... RACINE... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 With high helicity in the tor watch area....700...these storms are going to spin as they move east. Key to whether or not they produce may be moisture and low level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A777 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I don't know if we're still using this for 2021, but if we are, impressive cold core setup in NE Oklahoma, and parts of SE Kansas. A couple tornadoes have been reported (in mainly rural areas), and a couple of warnings still out for some still-rotating storms in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Number of tor warnings continuing to increase over ne OK and se MO but SPC for now not indicating that a watch will be issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Quite a bit of helicity in that se MO area....thank goodness thermodynamics are not as favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Think there could have been another very brief tornado near Afton, Oklahoma, according to chasers. Still several different tornado-warned storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 Some at least marginal severe days for NTX coming up, including tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 D1 slight from northeast TX to far southwest KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A777 Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 So I guess today goes in here? ENH risk issued on 1630 OTLK for NW OK and extreme S KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 Slight risk day today. Wonder if anything interesting happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 Severe T-storm watch for DFW up until midnight. Hodographs look really nice but there's little to no instability here, so overall I think it's a limited threat, but could still see some instances of damaging wind. I have to imagine that the theoretical "boom" scenario of today would play out perhaps in a similar way to the Arlington, TX tornado late last year. Maybe get a spin-up that takes advantage of that helicity/shear, but I still find it unlikely overall, and CAPE might be lower today than it was even on that day. Maybe further southwest of us in central TX has higher tornado potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Looks like DFW is gonna get a second round of storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Wednesday East Texas and Thursday Louisiana and Mississippi look interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Enhanced risk coming for parts of east Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Enhanced risk coming for parts of east Texas. Just outside the ENH area but def more concerened relative to last few risks. The mornings with clear blue skies are always the most worriesome for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Category upgrade driven by 30% hail area, tornado probs upped to 5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Just outside the ENH area but def more concerened relative to last few risks. The mornings with clear blue skies are always the most worriesome for me! I just realized I haven't looked outside all day so I didn't realize it was actually clear out kind of thought it was another wimpy WAA source of instability lol Looking at models, I feel like the highest threat could be *just* south/southeast of you and I, but with where the warm front sets up I will also be watching regardless. Also seems like DFW's largest recent hailstorms have been in March, so... there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 The HRRR shows several storms in the Enhanced area from 23z- 02z, including a chance for severe storms near Dallas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 0242 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Areas affected...Central/North-Central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 242022Z - 242245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated this evening across western portions of central and north-central TX. Threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two will accompany this storms as they move northeastward into more of central and north-central TX. Trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a weak low just southeast of BWD in central TX. A warm front extends eastward from this low, demarcated well by both the 56 deg F isodrosotherm and the edge of the cloud shield in visible satellite imagery. A surface trough also extends southwestward from this low before arcing back northwestward south of SJT into the TX Permian Basin. The air mass south of the warm front also continues to destabilize, particularly over the TX Hill County in the vicinity of the low. Recent mesoanalysis suggests MLCAPE around 500 J/kg near the low, increasing to over 1000 J/kg over in the region between Del Rio and San Antonio. Continued destabilization is expected as the warm front continue to move northward. At the same time, persistent low-level convergence in the vicinity of the low and its associated surface trough is expected to result in eventual convective initiation. Visible satellite imagery has shown several attempts at deep convection, although none have succeeded thus far. Current attempt is underway over McCulloch County. In addition to this mesoscale forcing, large-scale forcing for ascent is gradually increasing across the region as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Once convective initiation is realized, the environment is favorable for maturation into supercells. Primary hazard throughout the evening will be large hail while some damaging downburst winds are also possible. Gradually strengthening low-level could also result in a tornado or two. ..Mosier/Hart.. 03/24/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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