Quincy Posted May 20, 2020 Author Share Posted May 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, Chinook said: We've had a couple of tornado warnings east of Pueblo CO that have been for confirmed tornadoes tonight. The setup tomorrow is a bit similar with a bulge-type feature leading to a locally enhanced area of low-level shear. Wonder if it’s a repeat, but will keep that talk to the other thread. I bailed on the Montana chase idea today. They did have a few transient supercells, but didn’t want to get too far out of position for tomorrow or play around with the complications that come with out of state travelers there. Even though I barely had any contact with anything there, outside of my shoes on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 This month is just about locked in for the worst May ever. Far cry from how things looked even 10 days ago. Tomorrow/Saturday could be decent but its not gonna save the month. It really is fascinating considering that the second half of May looked good as late as May 13th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 11 hours ago, hlcater said: This month is just about locked in for the worst May ever. Far cry from how things looked even 10 days ago. Tomorrow/Saturday could be decent but its not gonna save the month. It really is fascinating considering that the second half of May looked good as late as May 13th. May has been consistently mediocre the past several years for whatever reason. Makes one wonder if it's permanent? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 17 hours ago, hlcater said: This month is just about locked in for the worst May ever. Far cry from how things looked even 10 days ago. Tomorrow/Saturday could be decent but its not gonna save the month. It really is fascinating considering that the second half of May looked good as late as May 13th. I went through and counted the filtered tornado reports on the spc website and I believe there are only 51 tornado reports nation wide so far this month. Has to be on pace for some kind of record? Can anyone chime in? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 35 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I went through and counted the filtered tornado reports on the spc website and I believe there are only 51 tornado reports nation wide so far this month. Has to be on pace for some kind of record? Can anyone chime in? I looked around at SPC and NCDC's websites but wasn't able to find a historical count of US tornadoes by month. I'm sure it exists somewhere though. Given the current and upcoming pattern I wouldn't be surprised if we finish under 100 this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 21, 2020 Author Share Posted May 21, 2020 35 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I went through and counted the filtered tornado reports on the spc website and I believe there are only 51 tornado reports nation wide so far this month. Has to be on pace for some kind of record? Can anyone chime in? The last month of May in the U.S. with less than 100 tornadoes was 1970 with 88. http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/tornado/1970/5/map 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Quincy said: The last month of May in the U.S. with less than 100 tornadoes was 1970 with 88. http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/tornado/1970/5/map And there it is, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 Man, I thought no May could be duller than 2018 in the Midwest/Plains. At least that had Tescott for those who were able to get out for it. 2006 and 2009 were pretty bad but they seemed like anomalies in that decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 14 tornado reports yesterday was the highest daily total since 4/23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 Today features an extraordinarily anomalous setup (at least I can’t exactly recall seeing anything like it) across large parts of Washington and Oregon, where an ENH risk for severe wind gusts exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 https://mobile.twitter.com/pmarshwx/status/1266745452009046019 Appears this may be the only comparable outlook, a very unusual setup nonetheless 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 If the Interior NW were to stop our May moderate risk drought the 2nd to last day before the end of the month, it would be fitting for 2020. ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL OR TO CENTRAL/EASTERN WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms, offering destructive winds and hail, are most likely between 1 to 10 PM PDT over parts of the interior Pacific Northwest, east of the Cascades. ...Interior Northwest... Primary change is to increase tornado probabilities across parts of central OR. Categorical outlook is largely unchanged. Consideration was given for an upgrade to Moderate Risk in the western portion of the Columbia Basin. Concerns over the spatial extent of the severe wind coverage preclude further upgrading at this time. Thunderstorms will likely intensify after 19Z in a zone of strong deep lift across south-central OR, ahead of an ejecting shortwave trough. Here, robust diabatic heating is underway amid a plume of low to mid 50s surface dew points. This will support a narrow corridor of modest buoyancy with MLCAPE reaching 750-1500 J/kg from central to northeast OR. Greater buoyancy is expected to develop towards 00Z farther downstream in eastern WA to northwest MT where mean-mixing ratios are higher. Surface-based effective-inflow parcels will exist on the west side of the surface front, where low-level winds will be veering with height, hodographs strongly curved, and deep shear relatively maximized. With low-level vorticity also maximized in the frontal zone, multiple supercells are expected. Though the environment generally favors higher-based convection, initial supercells should have the best potential for large hail and a couple tornadoes between about 21-23Z. As the supercells spread rapidly north-northeast, at peak boundary-layer heating over the Columbia Basin, upscale growth into a forward-propagating MCS appears probable. This will increase the potential for severe wind gusts, some of which may be significant, given the favorable combination of steep lapse rates and moderately large buoyancy. Overall setup appears likely to yield a swath of severe wind in the Columbia Basin from north-central OR across parts of central and eastern WA before the MCS moves into British Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 0-3km EHI is as high as 10 along the OR/WA border. I have never seen values that high in the Pacific Northwest before, but keep in mind that LCL heights are very high. Storm south of (and moving towards) Bend, OR has lower LCL heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e pluribus unum Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 I would check out May 31, 1997 if you're looking for a severe weather analog. Of course there's the April 5, 1972 event as well, which produced the deadliest tornado in Western U.S. history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 Last night, an MCS in Missouri was moving westward, and a squall line in Kansas was moving eastward. They met up, and some storms formed a bridge between them. Coming up later today and Saturday, the SPC has an enhanced risk outlook for South Dakota on both days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 Not sure where to post this but the supercell NW of Rapid City ND looks beastly. It's currently warned for tennis ball sized hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 This was interesting to read in the MCD... bolded mine... talks about heat bursts later tonight -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0825.html Mesoscale Discussion 0825 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 Areas affected...western Oklahoma...far eastern Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253... Valid 042337Z - 050130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253 continues. SUMMARY...A cluster of storms is beginning to congeal into a line across western Oklahoma. These storms will continue moving southeast with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. DISCUSSION...Storms with a history of severe wind including reports of 70 and 80 mph and large hail (1 inch) are moving southeast across western Oklahoma. Storms are beginning to form a more coherent line with some evidence of an increasing rear inflow jet developing behind the center of the line. Surface temperatures of 95-105 F and a deep, well mixed boundary layer with surface dewpoint depressions of 35-50 F are likely to contribute to efficient mixing of strong to damaging wind gusts to the surface. If the line continues to organize, the threat for damaging winds will increase in the short term. Large hail will also remain possible. These storms will begin to weaken after sunset, but the severe threat will remain for the next 2-4 hours. As these storms begin to collapse later tonight, strong winds could emanate outward from the cluster with heat bursts possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted June 5, 2020 Share Posted June 5, 2020 So, this looks interesting for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 5, 2020 Author Share Posted June 5, 2020 Chased the initial, easternmost supercell in South Dakota today. Managed to avoid the hail and didn’t have issues with the reservations, as the storm curved right and stayed over open road networks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 5, 2020 Share Posted June 5, 2020 This storm was between Buffalo, SD and Faith SD, with a brief 80 dBz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 5, 2020 Author Share Posted June 5, 2020 Edwards from SPC sampled 3.2” hail from that storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 6, 2020 Author Share Posted June 6, 2020 Chased a lone supercell in a general thunderstorm area today. CAMs were inconsistent, but the environment easily favored a supercell. Started near Lusk, WY and ended up near Chadron, NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 I am a little surprised that they upgraded to moderate risk today (wind, hail only) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 50 minutes ago, Chinook said: I am a little surprised that they upgraded to moderate risk today (wind, hail only) The discussion sounded almost like they expect an event similar to that one in August, 1994 that Gary England wrote about in his book (especially the line about "wind-driven hail"). Same general area, too of western KS/OK border region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 Up to 7000 J/kg today, and it's only 1:00PM Central Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 possible 2-3" hail with increasing rotation northeast of Great Bend, KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 21, 2020 Share Posted June 21, 2020 This squall line has already produced several severe wind reports in the last hour, and intensify to produce many more severe wind reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 We have a tornado watch in North Dakota for today. Meanwhile, across the Canadian border in Manitoba it looks like there is a storm with significant rotation: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 13, 2020 Share Posted July 13, 2020 Dont see this type of warning every day... who wants to chase this storm... Severe Thunderstorm Warning NEC087-145-130130- /O.NEW.KGLD.SV.W.0142.200713T0100Z-200713T0130Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Goodland KS 800 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020 The National Weather Service in Goodland has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Red Willow County in southwestern Nebraska... Eastern Hitchcock County in southwestern Nebraska... * Until 830 PM CDT. * At 800 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 4 miles southeast of McCook, moving east at 60 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. * Locations impacted include... McCook, Indianola, Danbury and Lebanon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 4021 10020 4000 10019 4000 10022 4014 10087 4025 10052 TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 281DEG 53KT 4015 10057 HAIL...1.50IN WIND...90MPH $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 First moderate risk day in quite a long time... since mid June? Wind driven... and it's a small mod risk ETA: never seen a hatched wind on a 15 percent before... on the new Day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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