Powerball Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 Um ok then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 14 hours ago, MNstorms said: Um ok then. Real clown map there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 An early day MCS, with possible severe winds and hail is likely to affect the area of some of the Missouri/Arkansas people on this board. There may be later-day development of severe storms in eastern Oklahoma update: SPC retains enhanced risk for southwest Missouri DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 15, 2022 Author Share Posted May 15, 2022 CAMs have been struggling with the MCS this morning. Trends look to be a bit more robust and somewhat farther SW. It looks like the convection will move toward the KS/MO/OK border area. Still think some isolated supercell development is possible on its southwest flank over eastern Oklahoma, but keep an eye to see any outflow shunts the threat farther S/SW. (not as far as OKC though) Edit: Now that l look, the NSSL that was posted above seems to be the closest to current obs. That model shows more of a supercell threat down near I-40 and into southeastern Oklahoma. Seems to line up with trends, also considering the system will likely accelerate faster than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 It's a bit too far out to get into specifics, but at first look, I'm kind of liking the look of 5/20 for decent severe weather potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 On 5/16/2022 at 8:01 PM, Powerball said: It's a bit too far out to get into specifics, but at first look, I'm kind of liking the look of 5/20 for decent severe weather potential. ...in Northern Michigan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: ...in Northern Michigan. Yeah, it was a fail here. But I had pretty low expectations already. In fact, I'm happy that convection and its debris / outflows didn't disrupt our 90*F+ streak. Multiple longevity records were tied and/or broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted May 29, 2022 Share Posted May 29, 2022 Just dropping by the regional forums to let everyone know there's a seasonal hurricane forecast contest open here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/57386-2022-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-_-enter-by-june-1st/?tab=comments#comment-6537694 Deadline is Wed June 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 7, 2022 Share Posted June 7, 2022 The SPC has put out an enhanced risk of severe weather for the central plains tomorrow, that was the 17z outlook. Tonight's models show a large number of storms developing on the cold front in southern Nebraska. The shear could be 45 kt- 60 kt with CAPE values up to 2000 J/kg. Some supercells will form, with most likely a low storm-relative helicity and lower chance for tornadoes in most areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 7, 2022 Author Share Posted June 7, 2022 To echo @Chinook, forecast hodographs look rather lengthy, thanks to the substantial shear mentioned above. If storms don’t get too clustered, you could see at least a couple long-track, intense supercells. Severe hail would be the most likely hazard. Low-level SRH is forecast to modestly improve after 00z, but I’m not sure the tornado threat will be fully realized. This is thanks to storms tending to merge and grow upscale, but a tornado or two could form. Other supercells seem probable across the Colorado Front Range and possibly northeastern New Mexico as well. Tuesday could be a rather active day across the region… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 7, 2022 Share Posted June 7, 2022 Am peeping out some of the latest CAMs attempting to bring the MCS from tonight into North Texas tomorrow. Could be interesting if they're onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 7, 2022 Share Posted June 7, 2022 3D view of the large overhang of high reflectivity in northern Nebraska, including a rare 75dBz pixel on the base reflectivity (radar estimated 2.7" hail) And oh, by the way, 300mb winds are 100 knots over this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 7, 2022 Share Posted June 7, 2022 3D view of the severe storm (non-tornado warned) east of the PUX radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 possible tornado with large hook echo, Las Animas Colorado area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 8, 2022 Author Share Posted June 8, 2022 Been chasing the storm cluster in southwestern Nebraska. Keeping a distance to get some structure photos, but there may have been a brief tornado or two underneath there. (Via other storm chasers) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 8, 2022 Author Share Posted June 8, 2022 Another derecho could be forming across northeastern Kansas. Pressure falls are noted ahead of the convective system. Topeka’s 00z sounding sampled 1432 J/kg of DCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 90*F+ temps are in Jeopardy today, with that MCS moving in. The portion moving towards DFW is weakening, *BUT*, not soon enough to avoid at least some outflow influence & cloud debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 A significant tornado debris signature southwest of Lincoln Nebraska (21:57z-22:00z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 Confirmed tornado on this one. Hard to tell what to make of this velocity scan, the inflow and outflow look a bit disproportionate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 over a 7 mile wide rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 large supercell kept a broad and sometimes intense circulation going for multiple hours as it tracked southwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Late night tornado warning in an Iowa, not too far from Council Bluffs and Omaha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 23, 2022 Author Share Posted June 23, 2022 Witnessed a tornado in central Kansas a short time ago: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted June 27, 2022 Share Posted June 27, 2022 Haven't been on in a bit, but this interesting little guy happened last week here in Fayetteville. It was a non-severe rain shower that was in the process of dying that spawned this. First pic was literally right up the road from me. Totally freaky. It was a legit funnel with rotation. A failed landspout is what local meteorologists were calling it since it didn't reach the ground. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 YAY! Oh. It's summer now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 day 2/day 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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