Iceresistance Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 9 hours ago, nwohweather said: Just absolute high risk potential here with this one. Summer airmass + dynamic late October low is not a combo you wanna mess with And it's right over my Great-Grandparents (Springfield, MO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 10% HATCHED for Missouri, also includes Springfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Well, that got interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Very strong concern for my area (Central Oklahoma), SE Oklahoma, & Southern Oklahoma tonight. the SPC is calling for a higher chance of Tornadoes, up to Tennis Ball sized hail & 70 mph wind gusts. It appears that the area of Highest Instability is along & east of I-35, along & south of I-40, along & west of US-75 or US-69, & along & north of US-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: Very strong concern for my area (Central Oklahoma), SE Oklahoma, & Southern Oklahoma tonight. the SPC is calling for a higher chance of Tornadoes, up to Tennis Ball sized hail & 70 mph wind gusts. It appears that the area of Highest Instability is along & east of I-35, along & south of I-40, along & west of US-75 or US-69, & along & north of US-70. CAMs are showing mixed signals at best for DFW. Some of them are, in fact, duds. So highly conditional setup here, but yeah, could be an active evening up in Central/Southern OK for sure. EDIT: It's crazy that we're seeing a lot more severe weather threats/events this fall than we saw during the entirety of our actual severe weather season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, Powerball said: CAMs are showing mixed signals at best for DFW. Some of them are, in fact, duds. So highly conditional setup here, but yeah, could be an active evening up in Central/Southern OK for sure. EDIT: It's crazy that we're seeing a lot more severe weather threats/events this fall than we saw during the entirety of our actual severe weather season. I know! October was basically May except 5 months late! It appears that there is a solid tornado threat for Oklahoma, especially the squall line tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Looking at the clouds, you can actually see the updrafts trying their damndest to break through the cap as the initial line of showers moves through and instability/moisture advection picks up. There's some lightning strikes showing up within it in OK I see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Possible Couplet picking up on radar near Piedmont, Velocity is weak right now but it could ramp up since it's in a favorable environment for supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 15 minutes ago, Powerball said: Looking at the clouds, you can actually see the updrafts trying their damndest to break throigh the cap as the initial line of showers moves through and instability/moisture advection picks up. There's some lightning strikes showing up within it in OK I see... Lightning's showing up now over DFW, hearing thunder here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Well dang, so we're going to get another round tonight in DFW after this line that is currently rolling through. Any chance this current line will lessen the tornado risk for tonight's main event for DFW? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 14 minutes ago, Witness Protection Program said: Well dang, so we're going to get another round tonight in DFW after this line that is currently rolling through. Any chance this current line will lessen the tornado risk for tonight's main event for DFW? If anything, the subsidence behind this initial line might help to keep the cells later this evening discrete longer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 1937 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021 Areas affected...parts of north Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 102306Z - 110100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of damaging hail, strong gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are expected to affect parts of north Texas this evening. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front from central OK into northwest TX, with a dryline from near Wichita Falls extending southwestward toward San Angelo. While dewpoints are only in the 55-60 F range, temperatures aloft are quite cold which is maximizing instability. A 21Z sounding from OUN showed 2000 J/kg MUCAPE, despite little heating today. Visible imagery shows towering CU near the cold front/dryline intersection approaching the Wichita Falls area. One or more supercells may eventually form out of this area, with storms forecast to progress east/southeastward this evening. Lengthening hodographs as well as steep lapse rates aloft with 500 mb temperatures near -17 C suggest damaging hail will be possible as storms move east/southeast along and south of the Red River. A brief tornado may occur as well, as low-level shear remains favorable prior to the cold front passing. However, low-level winds are forecast to rapidly veer this evening. ..Jewell/Edwards.. 11/10/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34289674 34109555 33929504 33529492 33029494 32659544 32429606 32389696 32479793 32579891 32849899 33269877 33689878 34259895 34499858 34429769 34289674 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 TORNADO ON THE GROUND NE OF DUNCAN, OK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 Possible tornado Tulsa suburbs, Tulsa Airport Quote * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Rogers County in northeastern Oklahoma... East central Tulsa County in northeastern Oklahoma... * Until 730 PM CST. * At 719 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Tulsa, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations in or near the path include... Tulsa... Catoosa... Tulsa International Airport... Confirmed tornado near I-44/I-244 highways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 Not really getting strong wind gusts, but pretty erratic wind shifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 I made a similar post in the main Severe WX discussion thread in another part of the forum about last nights storms, but I figured I'd post here too as it is relevant to this regional discussion. NWS SGF did confirm an EF-1 tornado near Branson West, MO. Fortunately it dissipated before moving further east towards the Silver Dollar City Theme park. I can only imagine what kind of disaster that would have been if it had sustained itself and hit SDC with Christmas time crowds present as It was estimated there were roughly 20K people on site, even as an EF-1 tornado I could see it being a mass casualty event. These storms were moving between 40-60 MPH so there would be little time to react and evacuate the park with those crowd numbers. I really think theme parks and stadiums need to close and cancel events on days where there's severe weather in the forecast. (even if SDC/Branson was on the western fringe of the outlook area) https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSSGF&e=202112112042 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 12 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: I made a similar post in the main Severe WX discussion thread in another part of the forum about last nights storms, but I figured I'd post here too as it is relevant to this regional discussion. NWS SGF did confirm an EF-1 tornado near Branson West, MO. Fortunately it dissipated before moving further east towards the Silver Dollar City Theme park. I can only imagine what kind of disaster that would have been if it had sustained itself and hit SDC with Christmas time crowds present as It was estimated there were roughly 20K people on site, even as an EF-1 tornado I could see it being a mass casualty event. These storms were moving between 40-60 MPH so there would be little time to react and evacuate the park with those crowd numbers. I really think theme parks and stadiums need to close and cancel events on days where there's severe weather in the forecast. (even if SDC/Branson was on the western fringe of the outlook area) https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSSGF&e=202112112042 Nothing in comparison to what they saw in my area in ne Arkansas and especially in ky. Possibly the longest track tornado ever. 250 miles is impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 I am aware and not discounting those facts. I am just saying it could have been really bad for that area too. 20k people jam packed outdoors with little means to take shelter or evacuate in a timely manner would be devastating in its own right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 12, 2021 Share Posted December 12, 2021 I have apparently started up a sh*tstorm over on this site regarding the above statement. Gotta love the general public. These are probably the same people that throw fits over severe weather coverage breaking in on the TV. EDIT: lol They banned me so I couldn't respond after sending some personal insults my way. Apparently dissenting opinions are not allowed. https://themeparkreview.com/forum/topic/134-silver-dollar-city-sdc-discussion-thread/?do=findComment&comment=1907522 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 On 12/12/2021 at 3:01 PM, stormdragonwx said: I have apparently started up a sh*tstorm over on this site regarding the above statement. Gotta love the general public. These are probably the same people that throw fits over severe weather coverage breaking in on the TV. EDIT: lol They banned me so I couldn't respond after sending some personal insults my way. Apparently dissenting opinions are not allowed. https://themeparkreview.com/forum/topic/134-silver-dollar-city-sdc-discussion-thread/?do=findComment&comment=1907522 Sometimes, you just gotta learn how to read the room. I doubt a bunch of theme park enthusiasts care about the intricate weather details you wanted to discuss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Wow. Imagine actually being a fan of silver dollar city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Eh lol it's all good. I'm over it. Some people simply lack reading comprehension and critical thinking. Not the first time I've seen it over there. I was just kinda surprised with the reactions considering recent events. I mean we did kinda have something historical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 40% chance of a watch being issued roughly covering the D1 slight risk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Tornado warning in the Houston metro area near Bush airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2nd Tor warning out for Dayton, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Confirmed Tornado near Kenefick per NWS and TX Storm Chasers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Tornado watch until 10:00 PM including Beaumont and Houston metro areas. 30/20 probs SEL3 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 13 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM CST Sat Jan 8 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until 1000 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Regenerative supercells will remain possible through this evening. Brief tornadoes will be the primary hazard. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northeast of Lufkin TX to 15 miles east southeast of Houston TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 20025. ...Grams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Looks like a good chance for severe weather in OK/TX and points east next Wednesday and Thursday. Could be a Dixie outbreak. Still many change in the forecast expected but early indications are good for a multi day severe event. Oh and dare I forget the snow in W OK and KS with the storm all the way into N. Michigan. SPC Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Fri Feb 11 2022 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a strong shortwave trough will drop southward from the Pacific Northwest into southern CA on D4/Monday and D5/Tuesday. This shortwave is then expected to eject eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the southern Plains on D6/Wednesday before continuing northeastward across the Mid MS Valley and Lower/Middle OH Valley on D7/Thursday. Very strong mid-level flow will accompany the shortwave, with strong low-level flow anticipated throughout the warm sector ahead of the shortwave as well. This strong low-level flow will contribute to robust moisture advection, with upper 50s dewpoints into southern OK and low 60s dewpoints through much of central TX by early D6/Wednesday evening. This moisture advection will continue on D7/Thursday, with upper 50s dewpoints likely reaching into the middle OH Valley by D7/Thursday evening. The combination of lift, strong vertical shear, low-level moisture, and buoyancy will likely result in severe thunderstorms. Current guidance indicates the most probable location for severe storms on D6/Wednesday is from central TX northeastward across eastern OK, central/western AR, and northwest LA. For D7/Thursday, the severe risk extends from the Lower MS Valley through the Mid-South into the Lower OH Valley. NWS TULSA DISC .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 316 AM CST Fri Feb 11 2022 Bottom line upfront: After a rather chilly weekend, expect warm and windy weather for the first half of the week. Fire weather concerns will be on the rise. Strong storm system arrives late Wednesday into Thursday, with widespread rainfall and thunderstorms expected. The average surface low track in the latest data suggests this system has a low probability of producing impactful wintry weather over our area at this point. Details will continue to be refined in the coming days. Digging shortwave trough over the central CONUS will force aforementioned cold front thru the region this afternoon and tonight. A few showers are possible ahead of the front as it moves thru far southeast Oklahoma, but the better chances will be over the ArkLaTex into early Saturday. Airmass behind this front will be arctic in nature, but the brunt of this misses us to north and east. Regardless, blended guidance (NBM) didn`t give it enough respect and was toward the warm edge of the spread. Went with the colder short term (CONSShort) guidance instead, with highs not getting out of the 30s in most places. A secondary shortwave trough dives southeast across the Midwest Saturday night into Sunday, with a reinforcing push of arctic air coming south down the center part of the country. The cold air will just glance us this time but will still keep highs in check for Sunday. Big pattern change comes next week, with deep cyclonic flow developing over the western CONUS. SW flow over the Plains downstream will induce lee troughing over the High Plains and a tight gradient over us. Strong southerly flow and an expanding low level thermal ridge will lead to a fast warmup thru Tuesday. Fire weather concerns ramp up, with the highest spread indices on Tuesday when winds will be strongest. Upper low diving down the West Coast early in the week will pivot around the base of the western CONUS trough and eject into the Plains late Wednesday into Thursday. Widespread showers and storms in the warm conveyor ahead of advancing system will overspread the region Wednesday night, exiting Thursday morning. Some locally heavy rainfall is possible. As far as severe weather potential is concerned, sufficient deep layer shear will not be a question, especially in the basal portion of a negative tilt shortwave trough. Instability will be the main question. A significant frontal intrusion into the Gulf basin by this weekend`s system suggests that appreciable moisture may not arrive in time. Future forecasts will refine this in the coming days. Regardless, potential for thunder still appears larger than what the NBM suggests, and have nudged those probs upward. Colder air will push into the region on Thursday as the surface low passes by. The main question at this point will be the track of the surface low, which has big implications regarding our winter weather potential. The latest deterministic GFS tracks the surface low just to our north, keeping the wrap-around heavy snow band to our north over Kansas. The latest ECMWF is a bit farther south with these features, grazing NE OK with the snow band. We are still several days out, and the details will continue to adjust as we get closer. For now, will not go full boar with winter weather potential, inserting low potential for snow and light accums. Just too early to tell if this system will bring winter weather impacts. Lacy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Could have some Severe Action in the First Weekend of March, but that appears unlikely with low Dewpoints, strong cap, High Uncertainty, & it's early March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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