Powerball Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 Sod's law... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 Uh oh . . . O_O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 Southerly trend of LP seemingly improves the wind fields across N TX & E OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 I still have some very bearish opinions towards Sunday as a whole, mainly from the moisture standpoint. There is not a single model that shows anywhere near the moistening/destabilization that the NAM/NAM 3 km shows, especially pre-00z. Looks to me like most convection should be nocturnal and likely quasi-linear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 The Bane for the Southern Plains Storm Season 2021 was the Significant Tornado Parameter Composite (STPC), it was absolutely terrible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Lol I have to work late Sunday night so expect a localized outbreak. (Murphys Law) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 10/30/30 on the new Day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Tulsa & OKC are no longer safe from the Enhanced risk . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Remember that all it takes is One . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Slight shift north brings Tulsa into the Enhanced zone but NWS Tulsa still believes main threat will be SSW of Tulsa. Interesting what pasted is not what is showing on NWS Tulsa right now. They pulled tornado threat further north on the latest graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 1 hour ago, OKTWISTER said: Slight shift north brings Tulsa into the Enhanced zone but NWS Tulsa still believes main threat will be SSW of Tulsa. Interesting what pasted is not what is showing on NWS Tulsa right now. They pulled tornado threat further north on the latest graphic. Where did you get this from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 A small hatched tor prob appears on the 1730 Day 2 in S OK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Regardless of tornado potential, I will be heading to the Wichitas tomorrow to do some hiking in the late morning/early afternoon. That would put me in great position for whatever initiates in the 21-00z window. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: Where did you get this from? https://www.weather.gov/tsa/dsp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, OKTWISTER said: https://www.weather.gov/tsa/dsp I wished that the Norman-NWS has this . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Also I have quite a bit of concern that Norman is going to take on its second major hailstorm in less than 6 months tomorrow. Soundings near the triple point indicate very large cloud layer shear and plenty of CAPE in the hail growth zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 16 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: I wished that the Norman-NWS has this . . . Click on chicklets and open more information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 @LoboLeader1That would be a NIGHTMARE Scenario for OKC & Norman! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: @LoboLeader1That would be a NIGHTMARE Scenario for OKC & Norman! Stay safe out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Just now, LoboLeader1 said: Stay safe out there. Yes, I'm posting that on S2K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 one confirmed tornado on a squall line in eastern South Dakota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 6z HRRR, BIG Supercell into OKC from the SW 12z HRRR: 3 Supercells training one after another from Chickasha to Earlsboro (Also through Tecumseh, OK, imagine going through that! YIKES!) 18z HRRR: Powerful Supercell from near Carnegie to Tulsa (Please note it's what the most notable features from the HRRR) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 NAM-3km cross section through the cold front and directly through the severe thunderstorms. Huge differences in upward motion mess with the isentropic surfaces. You can see a slight reduction of the 0C isotherm going towards the left side of the plot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 I'm at the westernmost fringe of the Slight Risk for Sunday It appears that the Dry Line is along I-35 from Texas to Kansas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Large Day 5 area outlooked from S NE into C TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Very Broad Enhanced risk on Day 3 Only 8% of Oklahoma is not under a 15% chance for Next Tuesday, it's a May-like Setup & it's extremely broad, Enhanced risk may be needed in the next couple of days depending on the model trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Dew points of 60-70 will exist southeast of the cold front on Sunday, with a low pressure in Iowa/Missouri. In general, the models have strong winds at 850mb-500mb, leading to some areas of 0-3km storm-relative helicity of 250m2/s2 or better. Models have 40-60 kt of wind at 500mb over Arkansas/ Missouri, leading to 0-6km shear in that range of values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Just absolute high risk potential here with this one. Summer airmass + dynamic late October low is not a combo you wanna mess with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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