MUWX Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 11 minutes ago, JoMo said: 80-85 MPH thunderstorm winds around the Topeka/KC area, going to drop south later today. SPC outlook doesn’t seem to be doing well so far. It’ll be interesting to see what they do with the next update, but the enhanced risk currently looks way too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 There really have been about 20-25 severe reports around Topeka, mostly wind, with a measured wind gust of 80mph. Kansas City may be getting high winds now, but there are no reports of trees down next to Kansas City yet. edit: some severe reports are north and south of Kansas City, although the storm did go through town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Chinook said: There really have been about 20-25 severe reports around Topeka, mostly wind, with a measured wind gust of 80mph. Kansas City may be getting high winds now, but there are no reports of trees down next to Kansas City yet. edit: some severe reports are north and south of Kansas City, although the storm did go through town. Archive radar indicates the stronger cells split to the north and south of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 2 hours ago, MUWX said: SPC outlook doesn’t seem to be doing well so far. It’ll be interesting to see what they do with the next update, but the enhanced risk currently looks way too far west. Not anymore. The eastern part of the complex has shown signs of weakening, and the stronger cells on the SW end of the complex have latched on to the N-S theta-e gradient through eastern KS and OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 40 minutes ago, Powerball said: Not anymore. The eastern part of the complex has shown signs of weakening, and the stronger cells on the SW end of the complex have latched on to the N-S theta-e gradient through eastern KS and OK. Yeah, that storm in EC Kansas is pretty impressive. I wonder how that outflow boundary from the other storms impacts things, it is moving south quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 Estimated 90-100 MPH winds reported in that storm in SE KS. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 12Z NAM @ HR60 says HELLO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 4 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: 12Z NAM @ HR60 says HELLO! The models agree on around 75 degree dew points near the KS/NE border and I think there is going to be convection in the Iowa/Missouri area along this warm front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 This non-tornado warned supercell west of Omaha and northwest of Lincoln right now has 75dBz reflectivity and 1"-3.25" hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 24, 2021 Author Share Posted June 24, 2021 On 6/22/2021 at 7:36 PM, Chinook said: This non-tornado warned supercell west of Omaha and northwest of Lincoln right now has 75dBz reflectivity and 1"-3.25" hail I stayed far away from that hail core, but had a neat vantage point of structure to the south: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 14 level cap over much of eastern KS at this time. Will take awhile for storms to develop in the area but ACCAS forming.in Thursday tor watch region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 significant tornado parameter values are quite high for this time of year. Currently, there is a tornado watch for NE Kansas and adjacent areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING 543 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2021 First warning of tonight's episode THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN OTOE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 630 PM CDT. * AT 543 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR UNADILLA, OR 22 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LINCOLN, MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... UNADILLA AND SYRACUSE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 Quote Areas affected...far northern Kansas and extreme southeastern Nebraska Concerning...Tornado Watch 309... Valid 242230Z - 242330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 309 continues. SUMMARY...A few tornadoes may develop along an enhanced corridor near a warm front across far northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. A strong tornado will also be possible. Severe weather, including tornadoes remain possible over the rest of the watch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 618 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN IOWA... * UNTIL 645 PM CDT. * AT 616 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CORNING, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... LAKE ICARIA STATE PARK, CORNING MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, CARBON AND PRESCOTT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 Thursday chase partner and I followed the tornado warned supercell in Kansas from inception to line-out. We always had good views of the wall cloud. Forgot what that's like, being away from the Plains for two years. It tried a couple times, but never could drop even a funnel. So @Chinook we gave it the old college (+20 lol) try. Trip was not a total loss. Met up with some WxTwitter chasers whom we'd not met in person until Thursday. I also took a trip down memory lane through the University of Kansas campus and some places in Overland Park / KCMO. Friday was insta-line/blobs but good shelf clouds. Maybe we should have chased Hoosier Alley instead, but now we're back home in Tenn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 non-tornadic supercell at Wahoo, Nebraska, with excellent severe weather parameters in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Large storms in Nebraska/Kansas using 5000 J/kg of CAPE, with one tornado warning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 Global models suggest a period of western troughing coming up that would be gorgeous in May...as it is might still see some "second season" severe weather events in the central CONUS as per the 4-8 although mode/potential chase quality TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 Days 5 & 7 from the SPC, this is more interesting than May with the 2nd Severe Weather Season well underway now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Uh oh . . . O_O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: Uh oh . . . O_O Your images don't seem to work (at least on my computer), but yeah not too often you see a 30% issued this far in advance during second severe season. 30% contour is a very defined area personally I'm a little surprised they are issuing something that specific this far out. I thought they'd keep the 15% through at least today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 24 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: Your images don't seem to work (at least on my computer), but yeah not too often you see a 30% issued this far in advance during second severe season. 30% contour is a very defined area personally I'm a little surprised they are issuing something that specific this far out. I thought they'd keep the 15% through at least today. Yes, the 30% area is dangerously close to me, I know an Aunt that lives in Ada, OK (Which is under the 30% risk) And the General setup area for Sunday is along & east of I-35 & along & south of I-40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, TheSuckZone said: Well it is Broyles... Not sure who he/she is...not a good reputation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 @It's Always SunnyThe photos are S9 from Gifyu, that might be the reason why you can't see them, they are TOO ADVANCED for your computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Not sure who he/she is...not a good reputation?He has a bit of a reputation among enthusiasts/chasers for being overly bullish on severe/particularly tornado potential compared to what actually ends up happening, especially at longer ranges.Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 The 6z GFS was absolutely crazy on Next Tuesday's Setup, Supercell Composite is up to a 9 in Western Oklahoma 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 3 hours ago, Iceresistance said: The 6z GFS was absolutely crazy on Next Tuesday's Setup, Supercell Composite is up to a 9 in Western Oklahoma That doesn't really say a whole lot about whether there will be storms and of what mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 11 minutes ago, andyhb said: That doesn't really say a whole lot about whether there will be storms and of what mode. Bulk Shear is looking good on both Sunday's & Next Tuesday's setup, CAPE is not very high, but it appears that this does not require a lot of CAPE for this: Basically a classic setup for Next Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 An interesting fall severe weather setup. The kinematics are certainly going to be there, but the specific thermodynamic mix and surface features remain questionable. Certainly a beautiful upper-level system and a decent looking chance for at least two days of severe weather potential. Whether or not we end up with chaseable tornadic supercells before a mixed-bag of vomit thrown on the storm reports map (QLCS galore) will probably come down to the 'day of'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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