Chinook Posted May 24, 2021 Share Posted May 24, 2021 So this happened very quickly southeast of Goodland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbird12 Posted May 24, 2021 Share Posted May 24, 2021 Looks like Selden, KS got hit by a potentially significant tornado. Tornado appears to be occluding now to the northeast of Selden, as of 630 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 24, 2021 Share Posted May 24, 2021 Jeff reporting major damage from his stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 24, 2021 Share Posted May 24, 2021 Looks like Jeff might have something trying to get going on stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 some tornadoes reported west of Garden City, KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 Jeff just mentioned that he looking for an enhanced/moderate for Wednesday. Sig Tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 25, 2021 Share Posted May 25, 2021 On 5/12/2021 at 12:03 PM, Powerball said: More below average temps and wet weather. Weee!!! /s Right on the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 26, 2021 Author Share Posted May 26, 2021 Planned on storm chasing near Lubbock on Tuesday, but wound up on a marginal supercell closer to Amarillo. I was mildly surprised how long it persisted. It had some neat structure for a while, too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 30, 2021 Share Posted May 30, 2021 Nathan confirmed a TOG on his stream StormChaserIRL - Twitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted May 30, 2021 Share Posted May 30, 2021 PDS warning(s) now for that storm for all of about 9 people in total + chasers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted May 30, 2021 Share Posted May 30, 2021 NW of Boise City, OK Braydon Morisseau on Twitter: "Expanded and sounds like a large tornado NW of Boise City, Oklahoma #okwx 9:28PM @PrairieChasers @RadarOmega_WX https://t.co/IZH9S1YKrs" / Twitter EDIT: Seems like some chasers are convinced it was a scud bomb (either this image or other reported tornadoes in the area). Guess we'll find out later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 30, 2021 Author Share Posted May 30, 2021 I think in Colorado it was a noteworthy tornado. Once it got into the western Oklahoma panhandle, it was a lot less conclusive. It may have touched down a few brief times over the border, but I think the main deal was earlier. Terrain was a pain, for visibility and navigation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 30, 2021 Share Posted May 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 30, 2021 Share Posted May 30, 2021 TOG on stream StormChaserIRL - Twitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 31, 2021 Share Posted May 31, 2021 tornado near Stratford, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted May 31, 2021 Share Posted May 31, 2021 I follow Mike Collier on FB and he posted that this is the third slowest May for tornadoes in history for Oklahoma. https://www.facebook.com/MikeCollierWx/posts/329754805168463 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 1, 2021 Author Share Posted June 1, 2021 Caught a glimpse of the tornado near Fort Stockton, TX today. Only managed a couple pictures due to terrain and power lines. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 10, 2021 Share Posted June 10, 2021 There is a fairly large enhanced risk area for tomorrow, for the sparsely-populated western Dakotas. HREF has updraft helicity tracks in almost all parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2021 Share Posted June 10, 2021 Looks like June 6, 2020 (the 0100z SPC OTLK technically) was last time MOD risk was issued in the Dakotas/Montana... June 18, 2018 looks like the one before that No MOD risk issued on the 1300 SPC OTLK... but disco mentions potential wind driven one could be issued later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2021 Share Posted June 10, 2021 Wow... 1630 SPC went all in... 45 hatched wind and hail with 10% tor in NW ND/extreme NE MT Though that's the smallest 45% hail contour region I've seen in a while lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2021 Share Posted June 10, 2021 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely late this afternoon and tonight across much of the northern and central Plains, especially across eastern Montana, the Dakotas, and Nebraska. All severe hazards are possible, including very large hail, wind gusts above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes. ...Northern/central Plains including Dakotas/Nebraska/E Montana... An active severe-weather day is expected across the region late this afternoon and tonight and have upgraded parts of the western Dakotas to a categorical Moderate Risk, with much of this regional risk expected to persist well through the late-night hours. 12Z upper-air analysis/soundings essentially sampled near-record moisture content by early/mid-June standards across the High Plains in terms of mean mixing ratios/850mb dewpoints, including locations such as Dodge City/North Platte/Rapid City/Bismarck/Glasgow Montana, although mid-level/700 mb temperatures were notably warm (near-record values) at these locations as well. Thunderstorms should develop initially this afternoon into early evening near the surface low and adjoining frontal segments over eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Supercells capable of all hazards (tornado, large to giant hail, severe wind gusts) are expected in the first few hours of the convective cycle. This should be followed by a transition to one or more organized convective complexes with a dominant destructive-wind hazard, with isolated severe hail and possibly some tornado threat. During and after that transition, very damaging gusts to hurricane force may be observed through the evening and possibly the early overnight hours. Very steep mid-level lapse rates will overlie a corridor of moist/theta-e advection and diurnal heating south of the warm front and east of the low/cold front. This will contribute to MLCAPE strengthening into the 2000-3000 J/kg range (locally higher), amidst intensifying deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes reaching 35-50 kt). Low-level shear should be maximized along the warm front and east of the surface low across eastern Montana and western North Dakota. Farther south across portions of South Dakota/Nebraska and perhaps northeast Colorado, high-based supercells should form late this afternoon/early evening near the dryline/lee trough, offering significant hail and severe gusts. However, this activity may evolve upscale more quickly to a QLCS configuration with a dominant wind threat. Deep, well-mixed sub-cloud layers will support maintenance of both severe hail and gusts to the surface during earlier, relatively discrete stages, but also, foster quick cold-pool aggregations and rapid expansion. Forced ascent of a foregoing boundary layer containing 60s to near 70 F surface dew points, with MLCAPE commonly remaining above 2000 J/kg even well after sunset, will help to drive the severe-wind threat southeastward over much of Nebraska tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 10, 2021 Share Posted June 10, 2021 ND/MT/S SK target looks pretty ripe this afternoon with mid-upper 60s dewpoints near the triple point, an arcing dryline, strong ESE surface flow and SE flow at 850 mb pushing 50 kts. Upscale growth would be the main concern, but I'd imagine there will be at least a couple tornadoes in that area later. Further south, moisture is overperforming the HRRR (no surprise) and there's certainly an opportunity for initiation in WY/NE later as a subtle shortwave ejects from the Rockies, although 700 mb temps are quite warm. Certainly a lower probability threat than further north, but could yield something pretty spectacular if it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 10, 2021 Share Posted June 10, 2021 Here's an insane RAP model sounding from central Nebraska, which won't necessarily be the focus of severe weather today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2021 Share Posted June 10, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 0908 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Areas affected...far northeast MT...western ND Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 101956Z - 102130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Convective initiation is expected between 20-21 UTC along the dryline over eastern MN near the ND border. Explosive growth into significant-severe producing supercells is forecast late this afternoon into the early evening. DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a swelling band of agitated cumulus along the dryline over far eastern MT near Sydney. Temperatures immediately east of the dryline have warmed into the lower 80s with a deepening boundary layer featuring low to mid 60s deg F dewpoints. The 18 UTC Glasgow, MT raob showed a very steep 700-500 mb lapse rate (8.6 deg C/km). Modifying the raob for 19 UTC surface conditions east of the dryline near the ND/MT border (i.e., Sydney, MT) yielded 3300 J/kg MLCAPE with very little convective inhibition remaining. As the cap erodes, expecting explosive updraft growth quickly evolving into a few discrete supercells. Giant hail (3+ inches in diameter) is possible with the stronger storms as the organize and move northeast into a less deeply mixed and more moisture rich environment near the warm front. Supercell tornadoes will be possible in vicinity of the warm front, in addition to the hail/severe gust hazard. Other isolated storms are forecast to eventually develop southward along the dryline into parts of southwest ND and northwest SD. Large to giant hail will be the primary hazard with these storms before additional thunderstorm development into a severe squall line evolves later this evening. ..Smith/Guyer.. 06/10/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 10, 2021 Share Posted June 10, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: Mesoscale Discussion 0908 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Areas affected...far northeast MT...western ND Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 101956Z - 102130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Convective initiation is expected between 20-21 UTC along the dryline over eastern MN near the ND border. Explosive growth into significant-severe producing supercells is forecast late this afternoon into the early evening. DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a swelling band of agitated cumulus along the dryline over far eastern MT near Sydney. Temperatures immediately east of the dryline have warmed into the lower 80s with a deepening boundary layer featuring low to mid 60s deg F dewpoints. The 18 UTC Glasgow, MT raob showed a very steep 700-500 mb lapse rate (8.6 deg C/km). Modifying the raob for 19 UTC surface conditions east of the dryline near the ND/MT border (i.e., Sydney, MT) yielded 3300 J/kg MLCAPE with very little convective inhibition remaining. As the cap erodes, expecting explosive updraft growth quickly evolving into a few discrete supercells. Giant hail (3+ inches in diameter) is possible with the stronger storms as the organize and move northeast into a less deeply mixed and more moisture rich environment near the warm front. Supercell tornadoes will be possible in vicinity of the warm front, in addition to the hail/severe gust hazard. Other isolated storms are forecast to eventually develop southward along the dryline into parts of southwest ND and northwest SD. Large to giant hail will be the primary hazard with these storms before additional thunderstorm development into a severe squall line evolves later this evening. ..Smith/Guyer.. 06/10/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... I think they meant "a few supercells evolving into upscale growth" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2021 Share Posted June 10, 2021 Wow... 80/80 probs on hail. 50/30 tor probs URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 251 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 225 PM MDT Thu Jun 10 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Montana Western North Dakota * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms including supercells will likely rapid develop through mid/late afternoon from east-central/northeast Montana into western South Dakota. Of greatest concern as far as intense supercells and a tornado risk will be those storms occurring near a west-east warm front across the region, where low-level moisture/shear will be maximized. A strong tornado is possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles north northwest of Wolf Point MT to 70 miles east southeast of Williston ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2021 Share Posted June 10, 2021 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 252 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM MDT Thu Jun 10 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of East-Central/Northeast Montana * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms including some supercells are expected to develop initially across east-central Montana and quickly move north-northeastward through evening. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards, although a tornado could also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles east northeast of Havre MT to 55 miles west southwest of Miles City MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 10, 2021 Share Posted June 10, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 10, 2021 Share Posted June 10, 2021 * At 635 PM CDT/535 PM MDT/, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 14 miles southeast of Sidney, moving northeast at 20 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 11, 2021 Share Posted June 11, 2021 80-85 MPH thunderstorm winds around the Topeka/KC area, going to drop south later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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