Witness Protection Program Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 Ch. 11 is doing a good job tracking the hail cores with their online live coverage: https://dfw.cbslocal.com/ I wonder if he is new to the area, he keeps reading these often random/obscure local names off the map. Just read 3 that I've never heard of and I wanted to tell him, "Dude, everybody just calls all of that Colleyville." I first tried channel 5, and after 5 minutes of nonstop ads gave up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 Getting hail stones mixed in with the rain. Mostly pea to dime size though (nothing severe). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 These training storms are making it awfully hard for me to get back home... (Flight to DFW and then GGG, the latter of which has already been cancelled). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 I see that there was tornado warning east of Eagle Pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 4 Inch hail has been reported last night in Ponder, TX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Lawton, OK for 60 mph winds & Quarter sized hail . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 0590 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021 Areas affected...Parts of central through northeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111513Z - 111615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue to initiate and become increasingly widespread north through northeast of the Edwards Plateau and adjacent Big Country through the Interstate 30/20 corridors by Noon to 2 PM CDT. This may include at least some risk for severe hail early, with potential to organize later this afternoon, if not before. It is not yet certain a watch will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...Latest model output indicates a substantial strengthening of large-scale ascent north/northeast of the Edwards Plateau, across parts of the Texas Big Country through the Interstates 30/20 corridors of north central and northeast Texas by 17-19Z. This is forecast to occur in response to strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, beneath increasingly divergent high-level flow, as a west-southwesterly subtropical jet streak continues to nose across the northern Mexican Plateau through the Texas Gulf coast vicinity. This lift will largely be focused above at least shallow cool/stable surface-based air to the north of stalled/slow moving frontal zone now extending across the upper Texas coastal plain through parts of Deep South Texas and the lower Rio Grande Valley. However, seasonably moist air above the frontal inversion, and beneath steep lapse rates associated with elevated mixed-layer air, is contributing to moderate to large CAPE, supportive of vigorous thunderstorm development. While high-level flow is strong, lower/mid tropospheric flow is somewhat modest to weak. Coupled with the likelihood for increasingly widespread convection through midday and early afternoon, hail potential in the longer term remains unclear. However, given the initial thermodynamic profiles, there may be a window of opportunity for large hail in the initially more discrete early storm development. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/11/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 32609949 32959809 33149610 32439453 31079569 30959757 30349983 30570081 31300040 32609949 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 128 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021 The National Weather Service in League City has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Houston County in southeastern Texas... Eastern Madison County in southeastern Texas... West central Walker County in southeastern Texas... * Until 200 PM CDT. * At 128 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 8 miles east of Madisonville, moving north at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Houston, eastern Madison and west central Walker Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 Law enforcement confirmed tornado near Weldon in east/southeast TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 Got a lowering close to College station per this channel https://www.facebook.com/kbtxmedia/videos/764402714445341/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 Warned now for Duval, McMullen and live oak counties in south central Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 On 5/11/2021 at 6:30 PM, Castaway said: Warned now for Duval, McMullen and live oak counties in south central Texas. Oh dear, that is a very potent supercell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx_2001 Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 A couple of tor warned cells heading towards Corpus Christi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 Y'all in the southern plains need to be flood ready! Very strong CPC signals for SE Texas to be DRENCHED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 7.78" of rain measured at my house in a 22 hour period from 9:30 pm Monday night through 7:30 pm Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 I guess we'll see if the AA precip forecast A.) verifies and B.) translates into increased severe weather activity for the Plains (north of Texas) and Midwest. Much of the upper Midwest is still abnormally dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx_2001 Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 Looks like a weakening closed low will be moving into the plains early next week which shouldn't bring much of a severe threat I would think, at least for the first part of the week. Could bring quite a bit of rain though. SPC hinting at a possible severe threat after that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 24 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: Looks like a weakening closed low will be moving into the plains early next week which shouldn't bring much of a severe threat I would think, at least for the first part of the week. Could bring quite a bit of rain though. SPC hinting at a possible severe threat after that though. Several News Channels (KFOR News 4 & News 9 to name a few.) have highlighted Next Monday & Tuesday to have potential severe weather . . . The uncertainty on the Cut-off low is too high . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 4 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Y'all in the southern plains need to be flood ready! Very strong CPC signals for SE Texas to be DRENCHED! More below average temps and wet weather. Weee!!! /s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx_2001 Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 2 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Several News Channels (KFOR News 4 & News 9 to name a few.) have highlighted Next Monday & Tuesday to have potential severe weather . . . The uncertainty on the Cut-off low is too high . . . It may have some severe potential but likely not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 The CPC has put out ANOTHER chance of very heavy rain on the 20th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 I foresee several consecutive marginal/slight risk severe days over the next week but I think clearly heavy rain/flooding seems to be the bigger story. With a closed low the shear profiles are likely to be junky and less than ideal. Mesoscale enhancements due to boundaries from previous convection may lead to a surprise tornado day in there, but overall still looks relatively unexciting as far as a large synoptic scale tornado setup. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 34 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: I foresee several consecutive marginal/slight risk severe days over the next week but I think clearly heavy rain/flooding seems to be the bigger story. With a closed low the shear profiles are likely to be junky and less than ideal. Mesoscale enhancements due to boundaries from previous convection may lead to a surprise tornado day in there, but overall still looks relatively unexciting as far as a large synoptic scale tornado setup. Took several looks at the models, the uncertainly is just too high right now, I've seen 2019 as a rulebreaker on the Supercells, they were literally developing over SATURATED soils! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 A mess... 000 FXUS64 KFWD 131906 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 206 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021 ...New Long Term... Confidence is increasing regarding the potential for a prolonged active weather period consisting of widespread significant rainfall/flooding and some strong/severe thunderstorms. Enjoy these couple days of sun and dry weather because it appears those days will be scarce during the extended forecast period. By Saturday, a relatively zonal flow regime should be in place across most of the US with warm/moist southerly flow present across the Southern Plains. Warm advection may begin contributing to isolated/scattered convective development by Saturday afternoon across the western portion of the CWA where a weak cap is expected to erode via diabatic heating. With modest shear and the lack of a boundary to focus convective development, it`s unlikely that these storms would be able to become organized or reach strong/severe limits. The greater potential for deep convection will reside far west of the forecast area in West Texas along an active dryline. Our main forecast problem for the weekend will be determining whether this convection could organize into one or more MCSs and move into the forecast area later Saturday night or Sunday morning. Have generally indicated this type of solution with the current PoP configuration, and it appears that the 30-40 kts of low-level flow and resultant moisture flux could maintain convective clusters as they advance eastward, despite generally decreasing MUCAPE and modest large- scale ascent. Sunday`s forecast will largely hinge on these events (or lack thereof), and a morning MCS may result in an inactive remainder of the day if sufficient convective overturning occurs. Alternatively, no overnight/morning convection would open the door for some dryline activity to make it into our CWA later in the day. It`s also possible activity north of us along a stalled frontal zone in Oklahoma could make a southward push with an expanding cold pool or effective frontal zone. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 3 hours ago, Powerball said: A mess... 000 FXUS64 KFWD 131906 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 206 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021 ...New Long Term... Confidence is increasing regarding the potential for a prolonged active weather period consisting of widespread significant rainfall/flooding and some strong/severe thunderstorms. Enjoy these couple days of sun and dry weather because it appears those days will be scarce during the extended forecast period. By Saturday, a relatively zonal flow regime should be in place across most of the US with warm/moist southerly flow present across the Southern Plains. Warm advection may begin contributing to isolated/scattered convective development by Saturday afternoon across the western portion of the CWA where a weak cap is expected to erode via diabatic heating. With modest shear and the lack of a boundary to focus convective development, it`s unlikely that these storms would be able to become organized or reach strong/severe limits. The greater potential for deep convection will reside far west of the forecast area in West Texas along an active dryline. Our main forecast problem for the weekend will be determining whether this convection could organize into one or more MCSs and move into the forecast area later Saturday night or Sunday morning. Have generally indicated this type of solution with the current PoP configuration, and it appears that the 30-40 kts of low-level flow and resultant moisture flux could maintain convective clusters as they advance eastward, despite generally decreasing MUCAPE and modest large- scale ascent. Sunday`s forecast will largely hinge on these events (or lack thereof), and a morning MCS may result in an inactive remainder of the day if sufficient convective overturning occurs. Alternatively, no overnight/morning convection would open the door for some dryline activity to make it into our CWA later in the day. It`s also possible activity north of us along a stalled frontal zone in Oklahoma could make a southward push with an expanding cold pool or effective frontal zone. Also want to mention that it's a tough forecast . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 14, 2021 Author Share Posted May 14, 2021 Chased a high based supercell in far northwestern Kansas this afternoon/evening. Quite a bit of wind and hail with this storm. Pronounced inverted-V thermodynamic profiles (71/46 at GLD 01z). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 3 hours ago, Quincy said: Chased a high based supercell in far northwestern Kansas this afternoon/evening. Quite a bit of wind and hail with this storm. Pronounced inverted-V thermodynamic profiles (71/46 at GLD 01z). While I’ve been to the Midwest before to chase, this is my first time doing it with just one other person. I was on that cell today. Definitely some impressive inflow. Great pic and video as always. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 Getting a western trough only to have moisture screwed up by a gulf coast hurricane would be very on brand for this storm season. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, TheSuckZone said: Getting sick of these nocturnal storms here in KS. I have no interest in driving out to observe some HP messes after dark. At least you're getting storms... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 Always found these interesting. Quote URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED National Weather Service Norman OK 938 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021 OKZ009-014>017-150800- /O.EXT.KOUN.HW.A.0002.000000T0000Z-210515T0800Z/ Ellis-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine- Including the cities of Shattuck, Arnett, Gage, Fargo, Cheyenne, Hammon, Seiling, Vici, Taloga, Leedey, Weatherford, Clinton, Watonga, Geary, and Okeene 938 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021 ...HIGH WIND WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...South winds could gust to near 60 mph late this evening and overnight as approaching storms dissipate. * WHERE...West-central Oklahoma. * WHEN...Until 3 AM CDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines, resulting in power outages. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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