OKwx_2001 Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 2 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said: Definitely seems to be the trend. Models look great then it fizzles out and appears a week later. The eastern troughing is a killer this season and now this cf wiping out moisture. Tomorrow would probably be a good tornado day otherwise. At least getting into mid to late May we are more likely to have better moisture. Pattern seems to really try to break down after mid May. Hoping it can pull a 2013 and get real active in a hurry last few weeks of May or at least a week. I have a break from school May 14-June 1 so would love to get a chase or two in before I go back. Yeah looking at the GFS, one run it shows a decent pattern, and then turns right back around and shows crap the next run. Honestly I think this month will be more active than it looks in the long range... And by "active" I mean average. I don't think we're going to see anything insane, but I don't think this will be as dead as 2018/2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 8, 2021 Author Share Posted May 8, 2021 Is it bad that I barely look at long range or even medium range guidance with respect to severe threats? It’s probably easy for me to say, living in Oklahoma. I feel more for those who have to travel long distances, and/or delicately plan PTO for chase trips. Models change and patterns evolve. As mentioned, as we get later into May, moisture will be better and severe setups will become more common. We’re still in that transition period. I don’t have data offhand, but I know that historically, early May has known to be quiet more often than not. It gets sandwiched between late April events (usually in the mid-South/Southeast) and peak trends in the second half of May. Think of it, most severe setups will change even the DAY OF. There isn’t too much use getting fixated on details. Threats seem to fall apart, far more often than the needle is threaded. Tomorrow looks blah and the pattern looks relatively timid for the following few days. Wake me up in late May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 28 minutes ago, Quincy said: Think of it, most severe setups will change even the DAY OF. There isn’t too much use getting fixated on details. ^This. IIRC May 3rd, 1999 started out as a Slight Risk that morning and then went to High by that afternoon. EDIT: Here it is https://www.weather.gov/oun/events-19990503-summary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx_2001 Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 Observed soundings from S TX show absolutely horrendous moisture coming in... That being said I still think they'll be a couple decent storms in KS but other than that I don't see much happening today... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 The STPC (Significant Tornado Parameter Composite) is just too low across Oklahoma & Texas . . . This 12z GFS model sounding near Tecumseh, OK at +12 hours proves why this might be a tough forecast . . . EDIT: This sounding is likely contaminated, the bars are shooting off to the right . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2021 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST MO... ..SUMMARY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS, AND OVERNIGHT INTO NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE INITIAL KANSAS STORMS WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT, WITH AN INCREASE IN THE DAMAGING-WIND THREAT BY EARLY TONIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ..KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO MO OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH NOW APPROACHING WESTERN CO, A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN CO INTO SOUTHWESTERN KS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS SOUTHWARD NEAR THE WESTERN OK BORDER, AND A WARM FRONT CONSOLIDATES NEAR I-70 ACROSS KS. MOISTURE RETURN IN THE WARM SECTOR HAS BEEN DELAYED BY A PRIOR FRONTAL INTRUSION RELATED TO A MIDLEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST, WITH THE RICHEST MOISTURE (> 65 F DEWPOINTS) CONFINED TO SOUTH OF I-20 IN EAST TX AS OF LATE MORNING. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FROM OK INTO KS, BUT WILL BE OFFSET BY VERTICAL MIXING, RESULTING IN BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE DRYLINE UP TO THE TRIPLE POINT IN KS. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO APPROACH 90 F TO MIX DEEPLY ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION, AND THIS ONLY APPEARS PROBABLE IN A NARROW ZONE ALONG THE DRYLINE TO NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR AND JUST NORTHEAST OF THE TRIPLE POINT IN WEST CENTRAL KS BY 21-23Z, AND STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR IN THE ZONE OF VERTICAL VORTICITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE FRONT. BY LATE EVENING (NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET), THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY INCREASE NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL KS, AS THE INITIAL HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS MOVE FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO ENCOUNTER SOMEWHAT RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR STRENGTHENS. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS IS ALSO EXPECTED AROUND 03Z, AND CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO MO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SUPPORTED BY WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE MODE TRANSITION WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT TO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT TONIGHT, THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO MAY STILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER EMBEDDED UPDRAFTS/CIRCULATIONS. ..WESTERN OK/TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THE CORRIDOR OF RICHER MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DRYLINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEEP MIXING AND A NARROW ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG THE DRYLINE COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING; THUS, WILL MAINTAIN THE MRGL RISK AREA TO REFLECT THE HIGHLY-CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING. ..THOMPSON/MOORE.. 05/08/2021 CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS. The Nexlab SPC Page 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 8, 2021 Author Share Posted May 8, 2021 I’m not chasing Kansas due to other obligations, but I’d be lying if I said I wouldn’t chase it, if I were available. It just doesn’t strike me as a big tornado chase. I am mildly intrigued by the dryline in SW Oklahoma. As usual, the HRRR has been playing catch-up with moisture return. With that said, it still looks like dews are a tick too low for a more certain storm threat. At this point, I think there will be attempts at convective initiation around 22-23z, but given limited moisture, relatively large T/Td spreads and residual CINH, I doubt that there is any robust, sustained convection. It doesn’t strike me as a “drive three hours west and get PUMPED” setup, but if trends improve, there is a non-zero threat of a supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 3 hours ago, Quincy said: I’m not chasing Kansas due to other obligations, but I’d be lying if I said I wouldn’t chase it, if I were available. It just doesn’t strike me as a big tornado chase. I am mildly intrigued by the dryline in SW Oklahoma. As usual, the HRRR has been playing catch-up with moisture return. With that said, it still looks like dews are a tick too low for a more certain storm threat. At this point, I think there will be attempts at convective initiation around 22-23z, but given limited moisture, relatively large T/Td spreads and residual CINH, I doubt that there is any robust, sustained convection. It doesn’t strike me as a “drive three hours west and get PUMPED” setup, but if trends improve, there is a non-zero threat of a supercell. The SPC did put out the marginal risk for that reason, the uncertainty for storms is just too high . . . Many lower risk days have been over-performing lately, should this be next? I doubt it, but Never say Never with Weather! EDIT: Well, the Dryline is showing itself in NW Texas & SW Oklahoma . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 I was looking at the soundings & I found these from the 18z NAM model: Near Tecumseh, OK Near Norman, OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 FWIW, looks like there's a low-end tornado watch up downstream of the current SVR watch in parts of N/NE KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 11 minutes ago, TexMexWx said: FWIW, looks like there's a low-end tornado watch up downstream of the current SVR watch in parts of N/NE KS And a new svr storm watch just north of the tor watch. I always am cautious regarding warm fronts in the spring especially in enhanced risk areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 9, 2021 Share Posted May 9, 2021 There may be some increasing rotation on this storm, southeast of the UEX radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 9, 2021 Share Posted May 9, 2021 Storm tried firing up N of Hollis, the Cap won on that failed cell . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 9, 2021 Share Posted May 9, 2021 Severe Storms are no longer expected for Western Oklahoma . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 9, 2021 Author Share Posted May 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: Storm tried firing up N of Hollis, the Cap won on that failed cell . . . Almost! But not quite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted May 9, 2021 Share Posted May 9, 2021 Kansas looks like it's pulling something out of its sleeve again with a TOR warning for areas in and around Salina and another northeast of there (hodos from KICT and KTWX show very sizable amounts of 0-1 km SRH in excess of 500 m2/s2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 9, 2021 Author Share Posted May 9, 2021 Questionable low-level thermodynamics up there and it’s hard when the velocity scans are relatively high due to distance from radar sites. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 9, 2021 Share Posted May 9, 2021 This is a classic signature of a gust front, but there have not been a lot of severe reports in Kansas City so far, so it may not have been too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 9, 2021 Share Posted May 9, 2021 Mid-May is looking more active, hinted from the CPC The risk of heavy rain usually concedes with Supercell Activity since they usually dump a LOT of rain in short periods of time . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 Models are hinting a potential Outbreak Sequence across the Southern & Central Plains late this week & into this coming weekend, but the predictability is too low . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 6 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Models are hinting a potential Outbreak Sequence across the Southern & Central Plains late this week & into this coming weekend, but the predictability is too low . . . I wouldn't say "Outbreak Sequence" at this point. More like "something marginally more interesting than the abysmal 'spring' pattern we've been in." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 34 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: I wouldn't say "Outbreak Sequence" at this point. More like "something marginally more interesting than the abysmal 'spring' pattern we've been in." Yeah, it's mostly the CFSv2 that is trying a sequence from the Dakotas to Texas, but most other models are showing nothing of that sort . . . The next focus of attention for Tornado Alley Severe Weather starts around May 15th . . . Even though that the model agreement is too uncertain for this to happen, I always watch ANY chances, because I've seen it happen on days where it was supposed to be a Marginal . . . Many Severe weather days have been over-performing this year, especially in Texas . . . & I don't want to take ANY chances with Oklahoma weather . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 30% hatched hail for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: I wouldn't say "Outbreak Sequence" at this point. More like "something marginally more interesting than the abysmal 'spring' pattern we've been in." ^^^He gets it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx_2001 Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 2 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Yeah, it's mostly the CFSv2 that is trying a sequence from the Dakotas to Texas, but most other models are showing nothing of that sort . . . The next focus of attention for Tornado Alley Severe Weather starts around May 15th . . . Even though that the model agreement is too uncertain for this to happen, I always watch ANY chances, because I've seen it happen on days where it was supposed to be a Marginal . . . Many Severe weather days have been over-performing this year, especially in Texas . . . & I don't want to take ANY chances with Oklahoma weather . . . I think it'll get more active but it'll likely change between now and then. A little over a week or so ago, it looked like this week could have been active but here we with nothing but cold in most of the Plains... Meanwhile, could be some massive hail in S TX today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 I've just looked at the dew points for the 12z Euro & GFS models . . . The GFS has dew points near 70ºF next week, that is going to be pure torture on that part . . . The Euro has only up to the Upper 60s, but that is very humid . . . I can't tolerate the crazy humidity very well . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 Severe t'storms have (unexpectedly) exploded just west of DFW. Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 553 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 TXC367-102330- /O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0156.000000T0000Z-210510T2330Z/ Parker TX- 553 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR PARKER COUNTY... At 553 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Hudson Oaks, or near Weatherford, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Public. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. This severe storm will be near... Azle and Reno around 615 PM CDT. Briar around 620 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection stay inside a sturdy structure and keep away from windows. && LAT...LON 3300 9791 3299 9754 3256 9755 3256 9798 3265 9804 TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 235DEG 33KT 3276 9770 HAIL...1.75IN WIND...<50MPH $$ 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, Powerball said: Severe t'storms have (unexpectedly) exploded just west of DFW. Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 553 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 TXC367-102330- /O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0156.000000T0000Z-210510T2330Z/ Parker TX- 553 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR PARKER COUNTY... At 553 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Hudson Oaks, or near Weatherford, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Public. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. This severe storm will be near... Azle and Reno around 615 PM CDT. Briar around 620 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection stay inside a sturdy structure and keep away from windows. && LAT...LON 3300 9791 3299 9754 3256 9755 3256 9798 3265 9804 TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 235DEG 33KT 3276 9770 HAIL...1.75IN WIND...<50MPH $$ 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 TXC121-497-102330- /O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0157.210510T2303Z-210510T2330Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 603 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Wise County in north central Texas... Southwestern Denton County in north central Texas... * Until 630 PM CDT. * At 602 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Boyd, or near Briar, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is possible. * This severe thunderstorm will be near... New Fairview around 625 PM CDT. Justin around 630 PM CDT. LAT...LON 3304 9725 3299 9740 3299 9763 3300 9764 3307 9769 3326 9753 3328 9738 TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 240DEG 28KT 3304 9757 HAIL...1.25IN WIND...<50MPH $$ 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 10, 2021 Share Posted May 10, 2021 Severe Thunderstorm Warning TXC439-102345- /O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0158.210510T2321Z-210510T2345Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 621 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Tarrant County in north central Texas... * Until 645 PM CDT. * At 620 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Haslet, or near Saginaw, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is possible. Additional storms within Tarrant County may also produce hail to the size of quarters. LAT...LON 3298 9703 3255 9704 3256 9755 3299 9754 TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 242DEG 42KT 3294 9735 HAIL...1.25IN WIND...<50MPH $$ 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now