Quincy Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 HRRR still only shows 25-30kt shear at CI, but it does increase to 30-40kt by 22-23z. It will be interesting to see if a storm can manage to form between GAG and DDC. There hasn’t been much CAM support for that, but the environment would be conditionally favorable for a discrete supercell. Otherwise it looks like a sloppy storm mode with rapid clustering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOkie_124 Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 I've been lurking for a while now. I know very little about weather but it's fascinating to me. I live on 412 west of Enid, Ok 15 miles. Just thought I'd give you guys an update from here. It's very wet, and cloudy as of 9:40 AM. Edit: Still the same at 11:20. Doesn't seem like a typical severe weather day to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 2 hours ago, Quincy said: HRRR still only shows 25-30kt shear at CI, but it does increase to 30-40kt by 22-23z. It will be interesting to see if a storm can manage to form between GAG and DDC. There hasn’t been much CAM support for that, but the environment would be conditionally favorable for a discrete supercell. Otherwise it looks like a sloppy storm mode with rapid clustering. Yeah, starting to look like mainly wind damage threat today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Rapid clearing now across the panhandles into western OK. Cumulus forming on the dryline across the TX panhandle. Initiation likely in the next hour to two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Clinton OK now reporting 78 degrees. Dew points in the mid 60s. Could be a decent day for sig svr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Cells starting to fire up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Shear remains unfavorable for supercells: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Pretty much multicell junk so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 8 hours ago, NWOkie_124 said: I've been lurking for a while now. I know very little about weather but it's fascinating to me. I live on 412 west of Enid, Ok 15 miles. Just thought I'd give you guys an update from here. It's very wet, and cloudy as of 9:40 AM. Edit: Still the same at 11:20. Doesn't seem like a typical severe weather day to me. Welcome aboard. Follow the threads and you will gradually learn a good deal about svr weather. We have some good professional mets and knowledgeable posters on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Looks like a few storms went up right before sunset. Not a complete bust. Tomorrow could feature some fun in Kansas or possibly even eastern Colorado... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOkie_124 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 3 hours ago, Indystorm said: Welcome aboard. Follow the threads and you will gradually learn a good deal about svr weather. We have some good professional mets and knowledgeable posters on here. Thank you. I look forward to learning more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 53 minutes ago, NWOkie_124 said: Thank you. I look forward to learning more. Feel free to ask questions too, that’s one of the best ways to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 A few areas to consider today... The most obvious seems to be southeastern Kansas. With strong/extreme instability and modest shear, I’m not sure if we’ll see a clustered mess or a slow-moving supercell just before 00z. It could go either way. The dryline/front intersection out west looks interesting, but large T/Td spreads and marginal shear could lead to junk as well. Keeping an eye on Colorado and Nebraska as well for good measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Seeing as to how I live in eastern KS, I’ll be out chasing today. Forecast soundings are impressive: extreme instability, impressive low-level moisture and CAPE, along with large low-level hodographs. Shear is normal to the boundary, which would generally favor supercells *but* bulk shear today is again on the marginal end of what you want, so things could get messy pretty quickly, or a storm or two could stay discrete for a couple hours of chasing fun. The amount of trees in eastern half of KS sometimes make it a little annoying to chase here. But nevertheless I expect much more out of any sustained storm than I expected yesterday in the E TX PH/W OK at the same time. We’ll see. Not superbly confident in CI prior to sunset. All other CAMs aside from the HRRR/HRRRv4/TTU-WRF show initiation after sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Initiation now just before 3 p.m. CDT in sw MO has already gone svr. Thanks to a good ole MCV in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Currently positioning near Garnett, KS, looks to be a decent area. Today doesn't look outstanding but HRRR does consistently show an isolated storm tracking thru there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 80% chance of watch forthcoming for ne KS, northern MO and southern IA, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Sitting in emporia KS... towers going up to the west. Don’t think they’ll sustain for now, but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Iowa’s blowing up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 13 minutes ago, pbrussell said: Iowa’s blowing up Have definitely seen what seem to be some supercell structures on radar there, but overall the storm mode in Iowa seems messy right now. Obviously today is not a slam-dunk severe weather day, being only a slight risk, but if anything the most intense storm near New Virginia, IA looks to be a possible HP supercell given its radar signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chreeyiss Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Unexpected tornado warning in Louisiana, even a brief tds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, Chreeyiss said: Unexpected tornado warning in Louisiana, even a brief tds It appears that one cell has been going on for a while now, been seeing the same thing. I think this cell has had 3 tornado warnings now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm920 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Tornado on the ground north of Americus Kansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 This is a confirmed tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOkie_124 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Nice little lightning storm west of me tonight. Here's a storm tracker link from news9. https://www.news9.com/videolivestream?liveStream=https://live.field59.com/kwtv/kwtv2/playlist.m3u8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 13 minutes ago, NWOkie_124 said: Nice little lightning storm west of me tonight. Here's a storm tracker link from news9. https://www.news9.com/videolivestream?liveStream=https://live.field59.com/kwtv/kwtv2/playlist.m3u8 I caught the beginning stages of that storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOkie_124 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Quincy said: I caught the beginning stages of that storm: That's an awesome picture! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Stay safe NW Okie BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1207 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... SOUTHWESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... SOUTHEASTERN MAJOR COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL 100 AM CDT. * AT 1207 AM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ISABELLA, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ENID, FAIRVIEW, WAUKOMIS, LAHOMA, RINGWOOD, DRUMMOND, CLEO SPRINGS, AMES, MENO, ORIENTA AND ISABELLA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOkie_124 Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 7 hours ago, Indystorm said: Stay safe NW Okie BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1207 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... SOUTHWESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... SOUTHEASTERN MAJOR COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL 100 AM CDT. * AT 1207 AM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ISABELLA, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ENID, FAIRVIEW, WAUKOMIS, LAHOMA, RINGWOOD, DRUMMOND, CLEO SPRINGS, AMES, MENO, ORIENTA AND ISABELLA. I appreciate the heads up. We never did get anything here at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 I guess today's severe weather will go here? Looks like an active day with numerous storms likely. Low-level shear doesn't look particularly strong for tornadoes (bulk shear is also only in the 20-30 kt range), but with multiple boundaries in play across Oklahoma would not be surprised at a mesoscale accident producing a spinup or two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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