cheese007 Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 Got a D1 slight for parts of OK/TX, with some sig hatching for hail and wind. Not much but given the forecasts may be the most exciting things get for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 Not looking like too amazing of a setup right now. Obs show upper 70s temperatures with ~50 d/Tds across SW OK, and it’s not much better to the west in Texas. Likewise, most models show 60 to low 60s dewpoints advecting into the area by go time. Seems like a relatively high probability that a highly photogenic, high-based supercell goes up somewhere in W TX/SW OK this afternoon/evening. Giant hail will be the main risk with any isolated supercell before a large MCS forms along the cold front late tonight; might be a small non-zero risk of a tornado, which would also probably be photogenic thanks to high LCLs if one were to occur. FWIW, forecast soundings do indicate massive CINH across most of W TX/SW OK, so I’m not exactly sure how any convection is going to explode or even sustain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 Models have also been trending toward less moisture return. HRRR had lower 60s dews reaching to I-40, while now it has CDS struggling to hold around 60F through CI time. Cloud-cover is finally moving out of the eastern panhandle/western Oklahoma region, at least. It looks like there might just be enough moisture in place by peak heating. Wind profiles stronger favor supercells, so as long as a robust updraft can form, it should go spinning into the night... or aleast for a few hours near/along the Red River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 Enhanced Risk issued for a small area in and around Oklahoma City. The more impactful storms (in terms of population impacted) may be - cluster of evening/overnight storms with large hail and damaging winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 Based on short term CAMs, convective temperatures (91-92F) are almost reached near/just NW of CDS and this is supported by agitated cu fields east of AMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 That is where I think we will shortly have initiation. Not really looking for tors today but the giant hail and hurricane force wind risk for later in OK is concerning. Seems to be a real thin ribbon of low 60 dewpoints extending south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 STWatch issued just west of where SPC put the ENH risk in its 2000 SPC OTLK -- 40/40 on wind probs and 70/70 on hail probs https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0170.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 170 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Oklahoma Northwest Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...A couple intense supercells will likely develop along the portion of the Red River in the southeast Texas Panhandle and spread east-southeast near the northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma border. Very large hail and isolated significant severe wind are the main hazards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 Looks like initiation near Childress, TX per STW just issued for Childress/NE Hall Counties in TX Panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 They had the area of greatest concern for large hail just now upgraded to an ENH risk within the SVR T-storm Watch... Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 1 hour ago, Quincy said: Based on short term CAMs, convective temperatures (91-92F) are almost reached near/just NW of CDS and this is supported by agitated cu fields east of AMA. Out chasing today, Quincy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 11 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Out chasing today, Quincy? Getting into position near CDS now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 What is it with those SW TX storms that always seem to do their own thing in May? If I recall correctly, there were some instances of it last May and I'm sure in some years past as well. Currently a storm east of Fort Stockton which is SVR warned with TOR possible mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 46 minutes ago, Quincy said: Getting into position near CDS now. The supercell you’re probably on is pretty impressive on radar, even some weak rotation. Ground visuals don’t look like they’ve been all that great just yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 Anyone watching Weather Channel? Awesome view right now of a storm trying to put a tornado down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioWX Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 Check out the hail spike on this thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 620 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... SOUTHEASTERN HARMON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... HARDEMAN COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 700 PM CDT. * AT 620 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH OF GOODLETT, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...THREE INCH HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND VEHICLES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... QUANAH, CHILLICOTHE, ELDORADO, GOODLETT AND COPPER BREAKS STATE PARK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 Now initiation is expected as predicted in nw OK shortly and will move southeast to threaten Oklahoma City environs later tonight. Mesoscale Discussion 0550 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CDT Thu May 07 2020 Areas affected...Southwest Kansas...Northwest Oklahoma...Northeast Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 072343Z - 080045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued by 01z. Hail and wind are expected with convection this evening. DISCUSSION...Agitated cu field is slowly expanding in areal coverage across portions of southwestern KS, extending north along sharpening cold front. This is partly due to low-level moisture advancing rapidly north across western OK into southwest KS (surface dew point is now 54F at DDC). Mid-level heights will continue falling across the central Plains this evening and large-scale forcing for ascent should aid convective development along the frontal zone over the next few hours. Once convection develops, an upward-evolving thunderstorm cluster is expected to propagate southeast along a warm front that is currently draped from southwest KS into southeast OK. With time, LLJ will increase markedly into central OK late this evening and a more expansive southeast-moving MCS should spread toward the Oklahoma City metro. Large hail will be common with supercells and damaging wind threat should increase as MCS becomes more linear in nature. ..Darrow/Grams.. 05/07/2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 8, 2020 Share Posted May 8, 2020 Still chasing this as it’s gradually turning right. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 8, 2020 Share Posted May 8, 2020 Great structure and shot Quincy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 8, 2020 Share Posted May 8, 2020 Rather extensive overnight MCS event still ecpected. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 171 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 740 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Kansas Western and central Oklahoma Northeast Texas Panhandle * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 740 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Several supercells will likely develop, initially across southwest Kansas and then farther south across the northeast Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma. These severe storms should consolidate into a broader MCS towards central Oklahoma later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 8, 2020 Share Posted May 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Rather extensive overnight MCS event still ecpected. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 171 The first stronger storm is getting going near Dodge City KS down in Texas, this is a 3d look into the BWER of this large storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 8, 2020 Share Posted May 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Quincy said: Still chasing this as it’s gradually turning right. Days like today are when it’s necessary to chase from afar... beautiful structure shot! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 8, 2020 Author Share Posted May 8, 2020 Supercell near Fort Worth still trucking. Dropping 2 inch hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 8, 2020 Share Posted May 8, 2020 Just now, cheese007 said: Supercell near Fort Worth still trucking. Dropping 2 inch hail Southwest Tarrant County looks to get hammered should this storm continue to hold together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 8, 2020 Author Share Posted May 8, 2020 7 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said: Southwest Tarrant County looks to get hammered should this storm continue to hold together. Just went severe warned there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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