Saturday, May 9, 2020 Fun

[dryslot]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not melting ...honestly .

 Not you.

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

NAM is close to a coop crusher. 

That 3K.

[MJO812]

At least we all have a chance to see some flakes.

[dendrite]

20 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That 3K.

Goodbye. Nice to know you. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

At least we all have a chance to see some flakes.

I’d rather see 85F. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Even the “wild” snow squalls and windex all but disappeared in SNE. At this time next week, all will be right with the weather and folks will be deciding when to install, go swimming etc. On the cusp of summer pattern setting in

[Ginx snewx]

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Even the “wild” snow squalls and windex all but disappeared in SNE. At this time next week, all will be right with the weather and folks will be deciding when to install, go swimming etc. On the cusp of summer pattern setting in

One week left in the period,weeks and weeks left before we install, swim. COC as far as the weenie can see

[klw]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

For them 3-6”

Big big winter incoming!

[Baroclinic Zone]

48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d rather see 85F. 

This 

[wxeyeNH]

Here up at Newfound Lake we have a closed facebook group of around 3000 members.  During interesting times I post a weather forecast for the area since Ch 9 WMUR is the NH affiliate and their forecasts are geared to S NH 60 miles south of here.  People always complain they are wrong since we are at a higher elevation 570 feet to 1900 feet locally.  I am usually more accurate than them because I get input from this group and my weather knowledge.  This morning I'm getting lots of requests for my ideas as what will happen.  I have been hesitant as a few weeks ago the models were over zealous with a heavy wet snow that really didn't happen because we didn't have the rates.  I got to post something.  I'm thinking of a couple/few inches of wet snow overnight not sticking to pavement. Only .30" or so of qpf   Main takeaway is the cold and wind tomorrow with passing rain and snow showers and freezes at night over the weekend.  Any thoughts?   I'm 20 miles NNW of Dendrite. 

[NorEastermass128]

56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d rather see 77F with low humidity. 

FYP

[TalcottWx]

I like 70 with low humidity, I'm fat

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Goodbye. Nice to know you. 

Could be gone at 12z, Meh.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

22 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Here up at Newfound Lake we have a closed facebook group of around 3000 members.  During interesting times I post a weather forecast for the area since Ch 9 WMUR is the NH affiliate and their forecasts are geared to S NH 60 miles south of here.  People always complain they are wrong since we are at a higher elevation 570 feet to 1900 feet locally.  I am usually more accurate than them because I get input from this group and my weather knowledge.  This morning I'm getting lots of requests for my ideas as what will happen.  I have been hesitant as a few weeks ago the models were over zealous with a heavy wet snow that really didn't happen because we didn't have the rates.  I got to post something.  I'm thinking of a couple/few inches of wet snow overnight not sticking to pavement. Only .30" or so of qpf   Main takeaway is the cold and wind tomorrow with passing rain and snow showers and freezes at night over the weekend.  Any thoughts?   I'm 20 miles NNW of Dendrite. 

Sounds reasonable. IF this is weak it won't accumulate for really anyone outside of maybe an inch above 1500' imo . If it comes in stronger and goes over SE mass than 3-6 for your area sems quite possible over most elevations. 

hold off on forecast till 12z guidance than go from there

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I like 70 with low humidity, I'm fat

We all like Chamber weather 

[Allsnow]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Congrats...I'll enjoy the rimed flakes tomorrow aftn. What a terrible weekend.

A horrible winter then directly into a great winter pattern when it’s just too late for many of us. We have are health and that’s a lot to be thankful for. Putting covid to the side for a second, this has been the worst winter/spring combo I could ever draw up.

[powderfreak]

Had some snow showers around this morning, another day with flakes flying in May with more to come. 

METAR KMVL 081225Z AUTO 26003KT 5SM -SN FEW022 BKN028 OVC060 03/M01

[dryslot]

I wonder which weenie at the GYX WFO did this map.......lol

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

For them 3-6”

GYX is in full retreat mode - P&C offers my area <1".  At this rate we won't even see enough white stuff to lighten (briefly) the color of the grass.
AWT 

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Congrats...I'll enjoy the rimed flakes tomorrow aftn. What a terrible weekend.

Can’t be all bad there, Happy Birthday dude.

[powderfreak]

lol more snow showers out there.  Even with partial sunshine it’s snowing out in May.  Cold air mass for sure.

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, tamarack said:

GYX is in full retreat mode - P&C offers my area <1".  At this rate we won't even see enough white stuff to lighten (briefly) the color of the grass.
AWT 

Fully expect this to slide out south of us.

[ORH_wxman]

This has turned into weak sauce. Don't think there will be much accumulation for anyone below 1500' or 2k.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

Here up at Newfound Lake we have a closed facebook group of around 3000 members.  During interesting times I post a weather forecast for the area since Ch 9 WMUR is the NH affiliate and their forecasts are geared to S NH 60 miles south of here.  People always complain they are wrong since we are at a higher elevation 570 feet to 1900 feet locally.  I am usually more accurate than them because I get input from this group and my weather knowledge.  This morning I'm getting lots of requests for my ideas as what will happen.  I have been hesitant as a few weeks ago the models were over zealous with a heavy wet snow that really didn't happen because we didn't have the rates.  I got to post something.  I'm thinking of a couple/few inches of wet snow overnight not sticking to pavement. Only .30" or so of qpf   Main takeaway is the cold and wind tomorrow with passing rain and snow showers and freezes at night over the weekend.  Any thoughts?   I'm 20 miles NNW of Dendrite. 

Yeah... I have a thought -  next is stock-piling weapons.  When's the movement formalized for seceding?

That bold is a somewhat unnerving in a way. It's a bit of an homage to a real sociological problem that is emerging because of internet technologies, et al.

What is happening to humanity because of the last 20 to 30 years... it is focusing local ethos into 'cultural schisms'  

Seriously, it is a real phenomenon that is/has begun tearing at the fabric of societal identities everywhere. It's tsunamis of information exposure is causing fear, and then reclusive tendencies back into realms of familiarization because the average person can't really process the immense complexity and Globular abstractions of the 'whole planetary' din.  And then these 'cultural islets' that formulate become tribal; made up of 3000 peeps that tend to fold in fringe ideologies over time, but close the door on the general voice's ability to instruct the common point of view that by proximity extends too far outside the internal's registry... they become dangerous given time.  Not all, but a few... 

You guys ready to secede yet -  ... haha

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This has turned into weak sauce. Don't think there will be much accumulation for anyone below 1500' or 2k.

Just like all winter. Models teased us again until it got closer.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Just like all winter. Models teased us again until it got closer.

Well if you actually bought it...maybe. I wasn't buying it until we were inside 48 hours....which we never really got. I figured maybe some light accums were possible...like coating to an inch. Still could happen in higher terrain in SNE. But anything meaningful doesn't look very plausible outside of the higher terrain of CNE/NNE.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well if you actually bought it...maybe. I wasn't buying it until we were inside 48 hours....which we never really got. I figured maybe some light accums were possible...like coating to an inch. Still could happen in higher terrain in SNE. But anything meaningful doesn't look very plausible outside of the higher terrain of CNE/NNE.

Do you think we at least see flakes flying or maybe not?

it would be nice to at least see that since today is 50 and windy.  Feels like early April. 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Just like all winter. Models teased us again until it got closer.

Coincidence ... most likely. But perhaps there is some commiseration value in noting the propensity for tenderizing butts - lol.. 

Seriously, we're talking something like a -5 or so standard deviation, middle troposphere anomaly, possibly in two waves... early Saturday and again early Tuesday - though the latter is obviously negotiable.  Anyway, -5 standard deviations in January?  mmm... that's a whole difference ball-game, and is not the same thing as what this is.

Now, obviously there is some climate-relativity there... Like, the sun is modulating the current one from the bottom up and that's skewing the potential of what this thing may/might have done... Also, at the nadir of winter, or the max of summer for that matter, pushing extremes can't really get as dramatic as the transition seasons because they are comparing a deep(tall) column already...etc..etc..  But, removing these factors:  this is different and more extreme than anything that set up this recent winter.   

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Do you think we at least see flakes flying or maybe not?

it would be nice to at least see that since today is 50 and windy.  Feels like early April. 

You have a decent chance to see some flakes after 10pm tonight.

Then you may have another chance with snow showers tomorrow.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah I still think this is turning more blase because of the speed of the flow is too great -

This thing is seriously just rocketing along ... it's developing a low, but it's impacting far D.E.M. and/or western NS up that way because it's translation speed is faster than the development rate - and it has to be... because the jet structures are being compromised in the cyclone model. So, with the storm sped up it also tends to be more middling in intensity.  

You can have fast moving bombs ...sure, but in May, when we're trying to do it all with the singular metric of very deep 500 MB heights, you need to really maximize the UVM to tap into that instability...  DPVA is getting blunted by the fact that the flow has velocity surplus before the jet(max) of the S/W arrives at any point along the fluid medium of its trajectory. 

Partial derivatives for the win!