CoastalWx Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 I would expect this solution from NAM. Weird to see the gfs do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Awesome. Enjoy. . hope to see you around for some biggies next year. Here’s a biggie for you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 Any sign of Chris (OceanStWx). He hasn’t posted in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I would expect this solution from NAM. Weird to see the gfs do this. Agree. Decide on whether I need an emergency blog post late tonight....I won't bite on mid May snow unless I'm confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree. Decide on whether I need an emergency blog post late tonight....I won't bite on mid May snow unless I'm confident. It’s real hard to get a wrapped up low this time of year unless dynamics are insane. You do have good dynamics and thermal gradients in this instance....but it’s not the same as winter. Plus convection can affect the moisture transport to wrap around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2020 Author Share Posted May 7, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: It’s real hard to get a wrapped up low this time of year unless dynamics are insane. You do have good dynamics and thermal gradients in this instance....but it’s not the same as winter. Plus convection can affect the moisture transport to wrap around. maybe that's why the NAM isn't as wrapped up with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2020 Author Share Posted May 7, 2020 This is pretty nuts...decent clustering between 0-1'', however, also several members going wild!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 SREFS!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: maybe that's why the NAM isn't as wrapped up with this? I need to look back, but I don’t think it was phasing as much? I just glanced at 500. My experience just says guidance is usually not in good agreement even 60hrs when it comes to late season cyclogenesis. The last few storms have been true to this. I think the reasons above all help to combine. Hopefully the euro helps settle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2020 Author Share Posted May 7, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: I need to look back, but I don’t think it was phasing as much? I just glanced at 500. My experience just says guidance is usually not in good agreement even 60hrs when it comes to late season cyclogenesis. The last few storms have been true to this. I think the reasons above all help to combine. Hopefully the euro helps settle it. That's what my initial look was...it wasn't phasing as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 GGEM caved....way SE now. It's pretty weak too....nothing like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 Let PF know...........lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2020 Author Share Posted May 7, 2020 Even better!!! Can't overlook Saturday afternoon either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 23 minutes ago, dryslot said: Let PF know...........lol Ha looks like we have to go about it the orographic way on the GGEM now. Luckily we’ve got a few ways to make some winter. I’d be surprised if that cold pool this time of year doesn’t get the terrain to fire off some snow. Phineas is about to find out how that works lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Ha looks like we have to go about it the orographic way. Luckily we’ve got a few ways to make some winter. I’d be surprised if that cold pool this time of year doesn’t get the terrain to fire off some snow. You always have that orographic angle for your snow, lol, You can score multiple ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 So GFS, ICON, 3kNAM and RGEM all still show snow for WNE/CNE ? We await the Euro I guess and see where we trend. Even a coating would be pretty cool! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 7, 2020 Author Share Posted May 7, 2020 This is some pretty crazy mixing for around here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 14 minutes ago, dryslot said: You always have that orographic angle for your snow, lol, You can score multiple ways. I would much prefer days like today. Full sunshine and 55F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: I would much prefer days like today. Full sunshine and 55F. You still holding that pack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: You still holding that pack? I’m at 2,600ft right now. Probably 20-30” on the ground here but NE facing. Haven’t hit the Spruce line yet. The upper east slopes last forever as they don’t get quite the angle of sun during max heating that the west slopes do. This same elevation is likely bare on the other side. Still 50”+ at the picnic tables at 3500ft+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: I’m at 2,600ft right now. Probably 20-30” on the ground here but NE facing. The east slopes last forever as they don’t get quite the angle of sun during max heating that the west slopes do. Still 50”+ at the picnic tables at 3500ft+. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 re the GFS ... the previous two runs were slightly more impressive with the surface pressure synoptic evolution/depth than this run. The slight backing off ( only 4 mb but still...) at 42 hours, as well as the overall slightly flatter morphology in the isobaric evolution is typical of how the GFS attempts to insidiously lure the snow geese into maintaining hope when their isn't any... Ha... kidding of course... but, I could see the next two ..three cycles of the GFS weaken by the same intervals and by 2 am tomorrow morning ...models all agree that the organized coastal appeal from this cold pattern was a red herring? The Euro still had a coastal deepening and may be a compromise as a weaker speedier now snow of consequence - One thing that sticks out to me is that the flow is very fast. Same damn aspect that's neutralized so many threats since early December, late last year. When it gets cold, it has to be a -4 SD middle tropospheric anomaly pressing against the warm heights in the TV and lower OV regions, and that just ends up making for huge wind velocities that become detrimental to cyclogenesis for a whole bunch of glazed-eye tech talk reasons. This seems to be doing what everything has... just happens to be doing it in the middle of May when other years we were in the 70s over a foundation of warm season by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I’m at 2,600ft right now. Probably 20-30” on the ground here but NE facing. Haven’t hit the Spruce line yet. The upper east slopes last forever as they don’t get quite the angle of sun during max heating that the west slopes do. This same elevation is likely bare on the other side. Still 50”+ at the picnic tables at 3500ft+. That is nuts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It’s real hard to get a wrapped up low this time of year unless dynamics are insane. You do have good dynamics and thermal gradients in this instance....but it’s not the same as winter. Plus convection can affect the moisture transport to wrap around. Wouldn’t convection rob the wrap around even in winter? I guess it’s just easier for that to happen now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Really hard to get a uniform snow Depth this time of year. It varies so much depending on aspect and even over very small distances, like a ridge in the woods was wind blown through winter and has no snow but there’s 2-4 feet packed into the sides of the ridge. Then you look across the valley and it’s bare to 3,500ft since it faces southeast. It has been very cold as we all know, I truly think it was cold enough to pretty much stop melting in April above like 2000ft. You don’t notice it down low but take another 10F off the monthly temps for 2000-2500ft and higher and you actually get Snow preservation temps. I’d say the second half of April and early May at this elevation in this cold pattern is like SNE in early March. You get some daytime melting on sunny days but it’s also still snowing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is nuts. It seems it but it’s really not that out of the ordinary, above normal snowpack but we got a nice bump from the cold April. Craziest part is the end of April was higher than the beginning of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Wouldn’t convection rob the wrap around even in winter? I guess it’s just easier for that to happen now? Yeah it always happens, but to me sometimes it seems like it may occur more in Spring because we lack the good thermal gradients to keep the conveyor belts going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 44 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: So GFS, ICON, 3kNAM and RGEM all still show snow for WNE/CNE ? We await the Euro I guess and see where we trend. Even a coating would be pretty WPC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 Euro is 7MBs weaker with the low in the TN valley at 30hrs than the GFS. MCS coming out of OK causing feedback issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 12z Euro, Couple tics colder at the surface up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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