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Saturday, May 9, 2020 Fun


weatherwiz
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An extremely anomalous set-up is projected for Saturday, May 9, 2020 as forecast models are in strong agreement in a piece of the PV breaking off and digging into New England resulting in likely record breaking 500mb heights which a tropopause level that's perhaps as low as 450-475mb! 500mb temperatures are forecast to as low as -35C to -40C which is unprecedented for the month of May. This will contribute to 700-500mb lapse rates which may exceed 8 C/KM. This coupled with sfc temperatures into the 40's and dewpoints in the 30's will be enough to generate some modest instability with ~500 J/KG of MLCAPE. What are we looking at? With any sun, this will further destabilize the atmosphere and this will result in numerous showers, snow showers (perhaps even snow squalls!!), grauple, and hail across the region. Snow accumulations will be possible in the higher elevations and there could even be grauple/hail accumulations as well as intensity of precipitation should be on the heavier side. Expect thunder and lightning too along with strong, gusty winds.  

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Convective temps are in the 30s across some spots and at least in the 40s elsewhere.

TTs around 60 or even higher(!!). Good chance of thunder where any cells pop. GFS actually shows CAPE getting to near 700 J/KG over central/western MA, lol.

 

Hopefully it keeps up on model guidance. Still 4 days out so things could change.

 

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This would be a nightime storm which makes the odds of it happening higher.   There is no leafout here in NNE but how much of the forest canopy would be in leaf by Friday in SNE?  That would make this much worse...Still much can change but the chance of someone seeing frozen in NE seems over 50% even with a weaker or shifting storm track.

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4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

This would be a nightime storm which makes the odds of it happening higher.   There is no leafout here in NNE but how much of the forest canopy would be in leaf by Friday in SNE?  That would make this much worse...Still much can change but the chance of someone seeing frozen in NE seems over 50% even with a weaker or shifting storm track.

Actually  got alot popping the last couple days definitely  would be damage here

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8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

This would be a nightime storm which makes the odds of it happening higher.   There is no leafout here in NNE but how much of the forest canopy would be in leaf by Friday in SNE?  That would make this much worse...Still much can change but the chance of someone seeing frozen in NE seems over 50% even with a weaker or shifting storm track.

While we have almost no leaves are IMBY, at my workplace in Leominster, tons of leaves

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25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I picture it now

"Severe snow squall warning has been issued until [      ]. In addition to extremely heavy snow leading to near-zero visibility, large hail up to the size of quarters is possible along with damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph".  

Just add in a Murder Hornets warning and we'd be in business

  • Haha 3
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