weatherwiz Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 An extremely anomalous set-up is projected for Saturday, May 9, 2020 as forecast models are in strong agreement in a piece of the PV breaking off and digging into New England resulting in likely record breaking 500mb heights which a tropopause level that's perhaps as low as 450-475mb! 500mb temperatures are forecast to as low as -35C to -40C which is unprecedented for the month of May. This will contribute to 700-500mb lapse rates which may exceed 8 C/KM. This coupled with sfc temperatures into the 40's and dewpoints in the 30's will be enough to generate some modest instability with ~500 J/KG of MLCAPE. What are we looking at? With any sun, this will further destabilize the atmosphere and this will result in numerous showers, snow showers (perhaps even snow squalls!!), grauple, and hail across the region. Snow accumulations will be possible in the higher elevations and there could even be grauple/hail accumulations as well as intensity of precipitation should be on the heavier side. Expect thunder and lightning too along with strong, gusty winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 The overnight Euro clown map: vs the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Convective temps are in the 30s across some spots and at least in the 40s elsewhere. TTs around 60 or even higher(!!). Good chance of thunder where any cells pop. GFS actually shows CAPE getting to near 700 J/KG over central/western MA, lol. Hopefully it keeps up on model guidance. Still 4 days out so things could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Just go away. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 5, 2020 Author Share Posted May 5, 2020 I picture it now "Severe snow squall warning has been issued until [ ]. In addition to extremely heavy snow leading to near-zero visibility, large hail up to the size of quarters is possible along with damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 12Z GFS Wow for New England if this happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 5, 2020 Author Share Posted May 5, 2020 Holy crap...the GFS is an epic snowstorm...very damaging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Holy crap...the GFS is an epic snowstorm...very damaging Well Epic may be overstating it a bit but Tolland would definitely lose power! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 5, 2020 Author Share Posted May 5, 2020 northern CT Friday night...holy shit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Yes .. oh yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 5, 2020 Author Share Posted May 5, 2020 Just now, klw said: Well Epic may be overstating it a bit epic for May standards I meant lol...would be several inches of heavy, wet snow in the hardest hit areas. Luckily we're not fully leaved but this would def lead to widespread power outages. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Gfs snows to the canal in the second week of May lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Models have been all over the place with this system the past 36hrs, so I'd think there's well above average uncertainty on the track and intensity of that low for 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 5, 2020 Author Share Posted May 5, 2020 If the Euro is onto this idea...oh boy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 This time of year is would take a bit longer to resolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 This would be a nightime storm which makes the odds of it happening higher. There is no leafout here in NNE but how much of the forest canopy would be in leaf by Friday in SNE? That would make this much worse...Still much can change but the chance of someone seeing frozen in NE seems over 50% even with a weaker or shifting storm track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 5, 2020 Author Share Posted May 5, 2020 That would be one helluva band. Rates would be insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: This would be a nightime storm which makes the odds of it happening higher. There is no leafout here in NNE but how much of the forest canopy would be in leaf by Friday in SNE? That would make this much worse...Still much can change but the chance of someone seeing frozen in NE seems over 50% even with a weaker or shifting storm track. Actually got alot popping the last couple days definitely would be damage here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: This would be a nightime storm which makes the odds of it happening higher. There is no leafout here in NNE but how much of the forest canopy would be in leaf by Friday in SNE? That would make this much worse...Still much can change but the chance of someone seeing frozen in NE seems over 50% even with a weaker or shifting storm track. While we have almost no leaves are IMBY, at my workplace in Leominster, tons of leaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I picture it now "Severe snow squall warning has been issued until [ ]. In addition to extremely heavy snow leading to near-zero visibility, large hail up to the size of quarters is possible along with damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph". Just add in a Murder Hornets warning and we'd be in business 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 5, 2020 Author Share Posted May 5, 2020 This is insane to say but it's not like we don't have the llvl airmass needed in place ahead of the storm b/c we kinda do...850's are quite cold for May and only get colder as dynamic cooling really takes over...and this then yields cooling at 925. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 But Cranky said all the cold is gone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: But Cranky said all the cold is gone... And he said no more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 5, 2020 Author Share Posted May 5, 2020 anyone know how to actually post this to like Facebook or instagram with the animation? When uploading and posted it’s just a still shot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: anyone know how to actually post this to like Facebook or instagram with the animation? When uploading and posted it’s just a still shot. Save it as this first........... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Canadian certainly stronger than last night. Looks like western SNE into NNE snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 CMC rides the low up the front much quicker, hence it's further north with the track. Looks like north of Albany to Portland gets some snow. Unusal for May, but a lot less insane than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 I'm selling for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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