Calderon Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Hail larger than baseballs in eastern Norman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 517 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020 OKC027-125-042300- /O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0208.000000T0000Z-200504T2300Z/ CLEVELAND OK-POTTAWATOMIE OK- 517 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN CLEVELAND AND SOUTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES... AT 516 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORMAN, OR NEAR LAKE THUNDERBIRD, MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED BASEBALL SIZE HAIL 3 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LAKE THUNDERBIRD. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND VEHICLES. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SOUTHEASTERN NORMAN, TECUMSEH, PINK, TRIBBEY, ETOWAH, BROOKSVILLE, MACOMB, LAKE THUNDERBIRD, LITTLE AXE AND TROUSDALE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 As was mentioned earlier tail end charlie might get active. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 554 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN GARVIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... SOUTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... SOUTHEASTERN MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL 630 PM CDT. * AT 553 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF ROSEDALE, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO THREE INCHES IN DIAMETER. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BYARS AND ROSEDALE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm920 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Wicked hook developing on that cell near Miami OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Snowstorm920 said: Wicked hook developing on that cell near Miami OK @jojo762 was near there as of last time he posted, I wonder if he stayed in the vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, Snowstorm920 said: Wicked hook developing on that cell near Miami OK Rotation is pretty weak/non existent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 LETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 603 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI... NORTHWESTERN MCDONALD COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI... * UNTIL 645 PM CDT. * AT 602 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WYANDOTTE, OR 9 MILES EAST OF MIAMI, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND VEHICLES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NEOSHO... BIG SUGAR CREEK STATE PARK... SENECA... GRANBY... ANDERSON... GOODMAN... RACINE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 The fact that the Seneca storm isn’t Producing, tells you all you need to know about today. It starts with a B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 20 minutes ago, MUWX said: The fact that the Seneca storm isn’t Producing, tells you all you need to know about today. It starts with a B at least it's TOR warned now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 I'm still concerned with the levels of helicity as these storms move into Missouri and nw Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Joplin is now 67/62 with variable wind.....up from 63/58 with strong ne wind not too long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Mesoscale Discussion 0536 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CDT Mon May 04 2020 Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma...southwestern Missouri...and northwestern Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 163... Valid 042342Z - 050145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 163 continues. SUMMARY...Severe/tornado risk remains evident across Tornado Watch 163, with greatest short-term tornado potential indicated within a small corridor near the OK/MO/AR border intersection. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop indicates a broken band of supercell storms ongoing near the advancing surface cold front, from southwestern Missouri to south-central Oklahoma. The airmass ahead of this band remains moderately unstable, with mid 60s dewpoints beneath very steep lapse rates aloft yielding 3000 to 4000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. While deep-layer shear -- owing to veering/increasing flow with height -- is favorable for strongly rotating updrafts given the thermodynamic environment, low-level shear remains somewhat weak in most areas. As such, the main risk remains very large hail, and locally damaging RFD outflow winds. However, a locally enhanced area for tornado potential over the next 1-2 hours appears to exist across far northeastern OK, far southwestern MO, and into northwestern AR. Here, a northwest-to-southeast outflow boundary is evident, and it appears that a supercell now moving southeastward into McDonald County Missouri may move along this boundary -- and the associated zone of enhanced vorticity. If this occurs, this storm -- or another cell or two just to the southwest -- may pose locally greater tornado potential within the narrow corridor in the vicinity of the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 650 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN MCDONALD COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI... SOUTHWESTERN BARRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI... * UNTIL 730 PM CDT. * AT 650 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PINEVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...THREE INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND VEHICLES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BIG SUGAR CREEK STATE PARK... ANDERSON... GOODMAN... PINEVILLE... WASHBURN... POWELL... RIDGLEY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 A look into the BWER of the tornado-warned storm at Pineville MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Aaaand now we have one TOR warned storm... in South Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 It will be interesting to see if the cap kills off those severe storms in southern Oklahoma in the next few hours. If not, they are headed straight down I-35 for DFW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 There is now a hailstorm capable of significant hail (2"+) about to move from southern Oklahoma into Montague and Cooke counties in north-central Texas. Could even be some rotation trying to form on this storm. If the current motion continues it may try to move towards Denton County (and the northern portions of the Metroplex) if it can hold together that long. EDIT: severe thunderstorm warning for eastern Montague and all of Cooke County. It is warned for 2-inch hail and 65 mph wind gusts (OK warning included concern for 3-inch hail). Steve McCauley (on his Facebook page) is saying that the storms should be able to survive into (at least) the northern DFW area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Do wonder if that storm could make it intact to the metroplex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 8 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Do wonder if that storm could make it intact to the metroplex Hopefully the hail potential winds down somewhat before then, but you can never count on that (the cap is one finicky beast at times). Collapsing storms can also produce damaging wind gusts on occasion, so even if the hail threat diminishes, there is that risk (although this storm is already capable of damaging wind as it is). I would not be surprised to see a local extension of the severe thunderstorm watch into Tarrant and Dallas counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 You can already see the lightning show from Fort Worth. 60+ miles away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Interestingly enough there might be some outflow out ahead of this storm, from west of Thackerville over to Muenster and Bowie (which is evident on the KFWS radar). Might be a sign of a possible weakening trend, but this does not appear ahead of the lead storm over Thackerville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Home from the chase. That stronger then expected cap put a damper on updrafts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Was it really the cap, or more of a function of less boundary layer heating and poor low-level lapse rates? I know a cap is influenced by boundary layer heating, but the models were way off. 1-2C difference in lapse rates is huge. It’s not like they progged 13C at 800mb and it was 17C. When I think of too much cap, I think of orphan anvils and failed CI. We had plenty of CI today, but I’m guessing bad lapse rates and meager low-level cape led to less intense parcel acceleration. Updrafts weren’t necessarily as intense as many expected. Ever since that busted tornado outbreak “swarm” in Oklahoma, I’ve started taking LLLRs a lot more seriously. There is a strong correlation between higher end tornado episodes and LLLRs. Likewise, a lot of busts have junky low-level thermodynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 2 hours ago, BrandonC_TX said: Interestingly enough there might be some outflow out ahead of this storm, from west of Thackerville over to Muenster and Bowie (which is evident on the KFWS radar). Might be a sign of a possible weakening trend, but this does not appear ahead of the lead storm over Thackerville. Welp. I was thinking the storm would go south through Denton and Tarrant counties but it's taken an interesting turn to the east and looks like it'll hit here in southern Collin County... warned for 65 mph winds and ping pong ball sized hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 15 minutes ago, TexMexWx said: Welp. I was thinking the storm would go south through Denton and Tarrant counties but it's taken an interesting turn to the east and looks like it'll hit here in southern Collin County... warned for 65 mph winds and ping pong ball sized hail. Those storms are definitely outflow-dominant now. The outflow boundary has surged well ahead of the storms, and is currently over central Dallas County and southern Tarrant County (and is just north of the KFWS radar site). If these storms had maintained unimpeded inflow at or near the surface we would probably be having a major hailstorm over DFW right now, but fortunately that outflow surged out ahead of the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said: Those storms are definitely outflow-dominant now. The outflow boundary has surged well ahead of the storms, and is currently over central Dallas County and southern Tarrant County (and is just north of the KFWS radar site). If these storms had maintained unimpeded inflow at or near the surface we would probably be having a major hailstorm over DFW right now, but fortunately that outflow surged out ahead of the storms. Yeah it shows now and the storm is below severe levels as it tracks southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 1 hour ago, Quincy said: Was it really the cap, or more of a function of less boundary layer heating and poor low-level lapse rates? I know a cap is influenced by boundary layer heating, but the models were way off. 1-2C difference in lapse rates is huge. It’s not like they progged 13C at 800mb and it was 17C. When I think of too much cap, I think of orphan anvils and failed CI. We had plenty of CI today, but I’m guessing bad lapse rates and meager low-level cape led to less intense parcel acceleration. Updrafts weren’t necessarily as intense as many expected. Ever since that busted tornado outbreak “swarm” in Oklahoma, I’ve started taking LLLRs a lot more seriously. There is a strong correlation between higher end tornado episodes and LLLRs. Likewise, a lot of busts have junky low-level thermodynamics. Yes I think that was the failure today. Great low-level lapse rate really seem to make up for a lot of other deficiencies, and conversely seem to break a lot of setups that should produce. It doesn't take a lot of spin down low when you've got intense stretching ability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Interesting day to say the least. Chased two supercells that developed near Welch OK. First produced a huge wall cloud but didn’t have much rotation and must’ve gotten ^slightly^ north of the boundary shortly after as the wall cloudy quickly dissipated, and storm became elevated. The second supercell developed as soon as the original storm went elevated... this one had an interesting initial life-cycle, as it quickly produced a gust-front and was seemingly outflow dominant before re-acquiring surface-based status. This storm looked impressive on radar but never really acquired any notable low-level meso... chased it to just past Anderson, MO, but gave up because it wasn’t doing much and the road network/trees get unbearable in far SW MO. Baseball to Softball-sized hail per the SVR warning along with the ESE movement made this one not very fun to chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Well.. that was disappointing. Yeah I chased that same NE OK cell down to Pineville, MO before I called it quits. I really thought it was gonna produce at one point as it neared Seneca on the state line. Typical 2020 junk storms as usual around here. I think if the storms took more of a E/NE track it could have helped them produce. Never been a fan of S/SE storm motions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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