stormdragonwx Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 I think I will be sticking to my Miami to Joplin target area where there is clearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 I haven’t been too impressed by the HRRRv4 this season. Mixed results, but also some bad stuff, like today: It shows substantial 0-3km CAPE where mesoanalysis shows little to none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 While cloudiness is an issue in SWMO today, there is a pretty decent OFB pushing south of SGF currently. That may come into play later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 163 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 235 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST KANSAS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EASTERN OKLAHOMA * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE WATCH AREA. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomBlue Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 I'm in far NW AR and it's 77 degrees with a 72 dew point and it's been mostly clear since noon or earlier. We got some pea sized hail and a lot of rain around 10AM as well. Might be an interesting night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 I definitely agree with Quincy. Low level lapse rates are pretty bad and clouds still lingering over a good portion of the highest risk area. Storms attempting to go up by Bartlesville but they are right on the front. Need some to form ahead of it and interact with an ofb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Storms already warned. Impressive. Odd because I'm seeing no lightning show on radarscope for those storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Initiation to the South of Bartlesville OK ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Latest risk area was cut back quite a bit in SWMO. Right on cue we are seeing some clearing in far SWMO. If this clearing line can continue to move east/north east, swmo may still have a shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Initiation north of Tulsa has rapidly gone severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Initiation north of Tulsa has rapidly gone severe Far from impressive 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, MUWX said: Far from impressive Yep, seems like a pulse severe at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 What a contrast...Tulsa 86/70 wind south at 14 Joplin 63/58 Ne wind at 17 gusting to 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Storms in NE Oklahoma look weak so far. Lapse rates are still pretty awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Is it the poor low level lapse rate or the 700 mb possible cap around 10 that is inhibiting convection at the moment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Sitting in Miami OK right now, ample N/S/E/W road options... might meander down to Vinita soon. Tons of CAPE and SRH today, but a slight cap probably remains in place and LLVL lapse rates are bleh. Might have a storm go ballistic INVOF the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm920 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Is it the poor low level lapse rate or the 700 mb possible cap around 10 that is inhibiting convection at the moment? Looking at some virtual sounding's id say it's the CAP around 800mb. Here's the 18z 3km NAM around Tulsa at 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 2 hours ago, DanLarsen34 said: Not sure why he tweeted this hodo. It's 61/56 at SGF, so clearly on the stable side of the WF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 431 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS... * UNTIL 515 PM CDT. * AT 430 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CHETOPA, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BAXTER SPRINGS... COLUMBUS... GALENA... LOWELL... TREECE... NEUTRAL... MELROSE... RIVERTON... SHERWIN... FAULKNER... CRESTLINE... LAWTON... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Storms firing northeast of Norman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 1 minute ago, jpeters3 said: Not sure why he tweeted this hodo. It's 61/56 at SGF, so clearly on the stable side of the WF. The WF continues to push NE, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 That cell right over KTLX went up fast and was quickly severe warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Issue is all these storms lighting up now are all right on the front. If you want tornadoes today they need to form further from the front or they will be undercut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, MUWX said: The WF continues to push NE, correct? right, but the wind field will change completely as that happens. So that profile has no bearing on the severe threat further south the warm sector. I could probably find a thousand hodos a season north of WFs with 1000+ J/kg of 0-1 km SRH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 VWP from KINX is less than impressive in the lowest km. Actually, there is more ESRH for left-movers, which probably explains why the left split moving toward Columbus KS is holding its own. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Developing fast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 What are the prospects of the LLJ ramping up this evening in the tornado watch area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Is anyone seeing rotation on the cell SW of Talala? Looks like a fairly potent storm on reflectivity and looks decent on velocity as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 I would watch the storm near Miami. It is already rotating and may interact with an OFB in sw mo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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