May 2020 Discussion

[Kitchener poster]

5 hours ago, Torchageddon said:

Looking at Waterloo Ontario's 7 day, I notice that TWN lowered Sunday and Monday's high temp by 4C and increased the rain. The high will be very close to 20C for Friday and Saturday but if it stays just under then the contest may go to the 20th and even now that high of 24C was lowered to 20 so there is a 2% chance that even in the next 7 days no 20 . 108 years of regional weather data shows the latest first 20ºC reading was May 14th so if the unthinkable happens and it somehow doesn't til after 20th that would beat the record by 6+ days . Considering our climate as of recent decades that would definitely be one of the most absurd "streaks" I've ever seen.

My weather has been pretty great the last few days for sun. Still too cold to enjoy it much. One interesting thing about our first possible 20ºC reading of the year is if its Friday (15th) then it will have occurred during a rainy day.

Yep I just ripped the banter thread a new one over this. I’m so tired of below average temps. As a result - I know I’m going to melt into a paste when it even hits 25C. 

[cyclone77]

This would certainly cause a strain on local farmers.  

[Spartman]

The warmup that is supposed to start tomorrow looks to be short-lived. Get ready to write off next week. Right after the weekend is over, models are hinting an Omega Block setting up with a cutoff low over the region lingering through near the end of next week. The latest GFS run is showing highs in the lower 60s for Monday through Tuesday followed by highs in the 50s Wednesday, and back to the 60s on Thursday through Friday of next week.

For example, next Wednesday on the latest 00z GFS:



Meanwhile, the latest Euro run shows highs in the lower 60s Monday, 50s on Tuesday through Wednesday, and back to the 60s on Thursday through Friday of next week before warming back up next Saturday.

For example, next Wednesday on the latest 00z Euro

[NTXYankee]

1 hour ago, Spartman said:

The warmup that is supposed to start tomorrow looks to be short-lived. Get ready to write off next week. Right after the weekend is over, models are hinting an Omega Block setting up with a cutoff low over the region lingering through near the end of next week. The latest GFS run is showing highs in the lower 60s for Monday through Tuesday followed by highs in the 50s Wednesday, and back to the 60s on Thursday through Friday of next week.

For example, next Wednesday on the latest 00z GFS:



Meanwhile, the latest Euro run shows highs in the lower 60s Monday, 50s on Tuesday through Wednesday, and back to the 60s on Thursday through Friday of next week before warming back up next Saturday.

For example, next Wednesday on the latest 00z Euro

Well what would you expect from 2020 and models that are useless beyond 24 hours.

[Kitchener poster]

https://www.kitchenertoday.com/local-news/barries-asparagus-farm-hit-hard-by-cold-snap-2348886

Not surprising, but yet disappointing. Big blow to them. 

[weatherbo]

.62" of rain and then fog with a high of 52 today... felt warm 

For the first time this spring I heard the peepers this evening.

Five weeks until the summer solstice and there's still snow hanging around.  I love the north but a warm spring isn't too much to ask for from time to time, is it?

 

[frostfern]

On 5/13/2020 at 4:55 PM, wisconsinwx said:

That's what your fall is for (October specifically sees a lot of days like today).  Here it's been quite windy today but despite temps in the upper 50s and the stiff breeze I did not need a jacket to golf today due to wall to wall sunshine.

Didn't get many of them last fall either though.  It went from warm and wet to cold and wet.  Summer humidity lingered late then winter came early.  The transition was pretty abrupt and not very sunny...  a lot like spring.

[frostfern]

1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

.62" of rain and then fog with a high of 52 today... felt warm 

For the first time this spring I heard the peepers this evening.

Five weeks until the summer solstice and there's still snow hanging around.  I love the north but a warm spring isn't too much to ask for from time to time, is it?

Based off the latest ECMWF, you may hit the first 80 before me.  Maybe not right on the water, but inland certainly.  Dumb blocking pattern means the first torch will hit places north and west while areas further south and east have cool northeasterly winds.  Western Michigan might eek some mid 70s since we're the farthest from Lake Huron.  I'm ready for 80, but I won't complain if it can at least be sunny.  Just praying the cutoff doesn't retrograde any more than currently shown.  I feel bad for Ohio people though.  Really annoying pattern after already dealing with cold blasts the past two weeks.

[Castaway]

Soaking in the classic night time mid spring t-storm training that I love. 

Went for a walk earlier with activity to my south creeping up with a flash here and there spidering out behind a moving towering cloud top in the distance. Humid with the wind at a stand still.

First close  battlefield rolling thunder rippage just came followed by healthy downpour that’s commencing. Nice night ahead  

Reading up my Kelly Heroes mid/late spring night timing tstorm training mode.

 

[wisconsinwx]

10 hours ago, frostfern said:

Didn't get many of them last fall either though.  It went from warm and wet to cold and wet.  Summer humidity lingered late then winter came early.  The transition was pretty abrupt and not very sunny...  a lot like spring.

If I remember correctly, the first 2/3s of October featured mostly 50s and 60s, and I can't think it'd have been much different in GRR.

[madwx]

After the fog burned off this morning its almost all clear except for a few passing cirrus, temps warming into the 70s with a light northerly breeze.  10/10 day on tap

[madwx]

GFS and NAM are trending north with this weekends storm system, more in line with the Euro.  Too bad the timing isn't great for the western lakes, otherwise we could have some good storm chances.

[Snowstorms]

It finally cracked 60F. This is the warmest temperature we've seen since May 3 in Toronto.  

Sunny day tomorrow with a high around 68F.  We have yet to crack 70F lol. Shit climo

[Torchageddon]

1 minute ago, Snowstorms said:

It finally cracked 60F. This is the warmest temperature we've seen since May 3 in Toronto.  

Sunny day tomorrow with a high around 68F.  We have yet to crack 70F lol. Shit climo

Wow, absolutely remarkable. I'm sitting at 15C, felt tropical! UW at 17.7C.

[Baum]

1 hour ago, madwx said:

After the fog burned off this morning its almost all clear except for a few passing cirrus, temps warming into the 70s with a light northerly breeze.  10/10 day on tap

send it this way.....

[Snowstorms]

Just now, Torchageddon said:

Wow, absolutely remarkable. I'm sitting at 15C, felt tropical! UW at 17.7C.

Based on your last post, the latest 20C ever recorded at UW was May 14, which was yesterday. I'm assuming you haven't cracked it yet which makes way for a new record this year. It's only 12:30 pm, so there's a good chance UW can crack 20C if the Sun comes out. That would further increase instability for potential pop-up thunderstorms this afternoon. I'm assuming you're a fan of torches, so this is probably the worst kind of weather for you. 

What a shitty year. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Have seen less then a quarter inch of rain this month. Could use some of that excess moisture down in IL up here.

[Torchageddon]

13 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Based on your last post, the latest 20C ever recorded at UW was May 14, which was yesterday. I'm assuming you haven't cracked it yet which makes way for a new record this year. It's only 12:30 pm, so there's a good chance UW can crack 20C if the Sun comes out. That would further increase instability for potential pop-up thunderstorms this afternoon. I'm assuming you're a fan of torches, so this is probably the worst kind of weather for you. 

What a shitty year. 

Yep, I don't have the spreadsheet on this but I think May 14 was the record latest. With that said, low key I hope something stops the rise at 19.7C so tomorrow, May 20 or 21 is when UW gets it. I had a feeling though back early this month that the 15th would be the day. Its defintely the worst May I've ever seen, but its behind still June 2015 for awfulness. Nothing will compare to 2014 for me, but 2020 is a solid 2nd for worst year. I like to joke that "is 2020 still going to be a good year?" 

[frostfern]

4 hours ago, wisconsinwx said:

If I remember correctly, the first 2/3s of October featured mostly 50s and 60s, and I can't think it'd have been much different in GRR.

I just remember it being kind of cloudy compared to normal.  Or maybe I just couldn't enjoy the nice ones.

[frostfern]

1 hour ago, madwx said:

GFS and NAM are trending north with this weekends storm system, more in line with the Euro.  Too bad the timing isn't great for the western lakes, otherwise we could have some good storm chances.

Does the instability actually reach Wisconsin and Michigan?  Older runs just looked like a general rain.

[madwx]

3 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Does the instability actually reach Wisconsin and Michigan?  Older runs just looked like a general rain.

the latest NAM has 500-1000 J/KG of ML CAPE over Wisconsin and Michigan early Sunday morning and has it lasting into the afternoon in Michigan.  Previous runs had the low going from the Quad Cities to Toledo, the new run has it going from La Crosse to Detroit.

[Geoboy645]

Either way It's looking another inch of rain is on the way on Sunday, which is not the worst thing in the world considering we are a bit below normal right now for rain. 

[madwx]

5 hours ago, madwx said:

GFS and NAM are trending north with this weekends storm system, more in line with the Euro.  Too bad the timing isn't great for the western lakes, otherwise we could have some good storm chances.

The trend continues with the 18z NAM, further north and slower.  Makes Sunday a little more interesting

[hawkeye_wx]

Saturday appeared to be a bit of a washout here.  Now, the HRRR and NAM don't bring rain in here until around midnight.

[Torchageddon]

6 hours ago, Torchageddon said:

With that said, low key I hope something stops the rise at 19.7C so tomorrow, May 20 or 21 is when UW gets it. I had a feeling though back early this month that the 15th would be the day.

My feeling was wrong and UW only topped out at a laughable 17.7C early on then actually was going down from 1-4 pm. Its rising since and is nearly back to today's high.

[Jim Martin]

 

[Torchageddon]

UW at 18.8C, it jumped 1.2C in 15 minutes! Its always had random fluctuations. Butt-clenching time .

[RogueWaves]

Back when Pure Michigan was an extension of tornado alley (1950-1985), we had legit severe storms. 

Great interactive presentation on the 40th anniversary of the twister that made an incredibly pin-pointed strike on downtown K'zoo.

Dr. Fujita's son actually contributed to this:

https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapJournal/index.html?appid=4ab7acf6be0440df9029fc7267fa21b0

[frostfern]

On 5/15/2020 at 1:45 PM, madwx said:

the latest NAM has 500-1000 J/KG of ML CAPE over Wisconsin and Michigan early Sunday morning and has it lasting into the afternoon in Michigan.  Previous runs had the low going from the Quad Cities to Toledo, the new run has it going from La Crosse to Detroit.

The CAMS are showing northern end of the line now just west of Chicago making it all the way up to GRR.  I don't see it producing much lighting as whatever CAPE there is is tall and skinny, but the rain is going to be a problem as instead of moving east the line is supposed to just kind of slowly pivot around the low similar to a tropical rain band. 3-4" rain totals are not needed.

[RogueWaves]

30 minutes ago, frostfern said:

The CAMS are showing northern end of the line now just west of Chicago making it all the way up to GRR.  I don't see it producing much lighting as whatever CAPE there is is tall and skinny, but the rain is going to be a problem as instead of moving east the line is supposed to just kind of slowly pivot around the low similar to a tropical rain band. 3-4" rain totals are not needed.

Already pumping the basement after Thu/Fri delivered 1.5+ here. The two worst floods since living here (Aug '08) were the already mentioned hurricane remnant in Sept of '08 and ofc just 2 years ago in Feb 2018 when the Kzoo river valley set record flood levels due to the heavy rain on top of rapid melt-off of that deep snow pack. Autumn of 2016 (or was it 2015?) was also bad now that I think of it. Just too damned much flooding lately. Tired of drying my basement so often. It's been beyond ridiculous but as said "it's what we do"