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7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Good. Keep it warm until November. 

While im in agreement with you, I can't help but think of pattern persistence. For the last few years the Bermuda Ridge has been strong and resilient no matter what type of enso or other meteorlogical driver in play...im just hoping this isn't a pre-cursory view.

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39 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

While im in agreement with you, I can't help but think of pattern persistence. For the last few years the Bermuda Ridge has been strong and resilient no matter what type of enso or other meteorlogical driver in play...im just hoping this isn't a pre-cursory view.

Most Ninas feature earlier winters. There is actually a really high correlation. Right now the forecast is for Colder then normal Nov/Dec, Normal January, and above average Feb/March. I would take that all day. 

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13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Most Ninas feature earlier winters. There is actually a really high correlation. Right now the forecast is for Colder then normal Nov/Dec, Normal January, and above average Feb/March. I would take that all day. 

This times 100. Give me a good early season from Mid Nov to New Years. Then slowly wave away from there. We get our best lake snow in November and December anyways. If we get quick shallow cold shots in Nov and Dec that doesn’t really produce lake effect by the time you get to late Jan through March the lake is either frozen over or not big enough delta T’s for good lake effect or winds are WNW/NW. 

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22 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

This times 100. Give me a good early season from Mid Nov to New Years. Then slowly wave away from there. We get our best lake snow in November and December anyways. If we get quick shallow cold shots in Nov and Dec that doesn’t really produce lake effect by the time you get to late Jan through March the lake is either frozen over or not big enough delta T’s for good lake effect or winds are WNW/NW. 

Temperature patterns during every La Niña winter since 1950 | NOAA  Climate.gov

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Analogs just based on ENSO from NE forum

2017-2018 (weak Nina)

2016-2017 (weak Nina)

2013-2014 (cold neutral)

2008-2009 (weak Nina)

2005-2006 (weak Nina)

2000-2001 (weak Nina)

1996-1997 (cold neutral)

1995-1996 (weak Nina)

1985-1986 (cold neutral)

1983-1984 (weak Nina)

1974-1975 (weak Nina)

1971-1972 (weak Nina)

Weak%2BNina.png

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So I have an observation...ive noticed the past week that each morning the temp at the NWS KBUF site is 6 to 7 degrees warmer than surrounding sites...i see it every morning on WIVB and this morning was no different. All the northern area sites were low to mid 50's and KBUF is at 64...is the instrument off? I live 3 miles and change from the NWS and I find it hard to believe as my backyard is sitting at 56.8 and 3 miles away it's 64? 

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So I have an observation...ive noticed the past week that each morning the temp at the NWS KBUF site is 6 to 7 degrees warmer than surrounding sites...i see it every morning on WIVB and this morning was no different. All the northern area sites were low to mid 50's and KBUF is at 64...is the instrument off? I live 3 miles and change from the NWS and I find it hard to believe as my backyard is sitting at 56.8 and 3 miles away it's 64? 

I’ve noticed the same all summer!  Especially late evenings/early night. Temp at BUF has consistently been 4-6 deg warmer than nearby locations. 

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2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So I have an observation...ive noticed the past week that each morning the temp at the NWS KBUF site is 6 to 7 degrees warmer than surrounding sites...i see it every morning on WIVB and this morning was no different. All the northern area sites were low to mid 50's and KBUF is at 64...is the instrument off? I live 3 miles and change from the NWS and I find it hard to believe as my backyard is sitting at 56.8 and 3 miles away it's 64? 

UHI effect? Idk where the station is located.

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44 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

UHI effect? Idk where the station is located.

It's actually in the 1st ring suburb of Cheektowaga literally 1/2 mile from 2nd ring suburb Williamsville...its right on the buffalo niagara international airport grgrounds...lots of vegetation around...thats why I'm a bit surprised

 

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20 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

I’m in Laramie Wyoming until Tuesday. Models are showing 10-14” of snow here Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. Will have to post some pics for sure regardless of how much we get! Will be the earliest snowstorm I have ever experienced. 

Are you there for work or vacation? 

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41 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Are you there for work or vacation? 

Visiting family. My girls dad lives in Laramie. Awesome awesome place to visit and am considering moving here once my sons adoption goes through (could be a year or more still). Elevation in the town and his house 8 miles north is 7200 feet but just West (20 mi) is the Snowy mountains which we went up yesterday to 12,000 feet. Just East (less than 10 miles) is the Laramie Mountains and Vedauwoo  Which is over 9000 feet and has absolutely awesome rock features. The mountains out here blow any of the mountains out east out of the water. We only went up to Mirror Lake which is at 10,800 feet or so but there was still plenty of snow left up there and you could feel how much thinner the air is up there. There are so many things to do here with camping in Medicine Bow National Forest, 4 wheeling through the mountains, and great fishing on the reservoir and Alpine lakes at nearly 10,000 feet. 
 

Throw in no state income tax and my father in laws $300,000 house only pays $1400 a year in taxes how could you not want to live here? 

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5 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So I have an observation...ive noticed the past week that each morning the temp at the NWS KBUF site is 6 to 7 degrees warmer than surrounding sites...i see it every morning on WIVB and this morning was no different. All the northern area sites were low to mid 50's and KBUF is at 64...is the instrument off? I live 3 miles and change from the NWS and I find it hard to believe as my backyard is sitting at 56.8 and 3 miles away it's 64? 

Riding a motorcycle it’s extremely noticeable. I live near main and random and when heading towards transit in the morning you hit a wall of warmth. I’ve always wondered how much urbanization is contributing to global warming. 

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