BuffaloWeather Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 Some crazy cold showing up across the midwest. Snow in the forecast for Colorado and SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Good. Keep it warm until November. While im in agreement with you, I can't help but think of pattern persistence. For the last few years the Bermuda Ridge has been strong and resilient no matter what type of enso or other meteorlogical driver in play...im just hoping this isn't a pre-cursory view. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 39 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: While im in agreement with you, I can't help but think of pattern persistence. For the last few years the Bermuda Ridge has been strong and resilient no matter what type of enso or other meteorlogical driver in play...im just hoping this isn't a pre-cursory view. Most Ninas feature earlier winters. There is actually a really high correlation. Right now the forecast is for Colder then normal Nov/Dec, Normal January, and above average Feb/March. I would take that all day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Most Ninas feature earlier winters. There is actually a really high correlation. Right now the forecast is for Colder then normal Nov/Dec, Normal January, and above average Feb/March. I would take that all day. This times 100. Give me a good early season from Mid Nov to New Years. Then slowly wave away from there. We get our best lake snow in November and December anyways. If we get quick shallow cold shots in Nov and Dec that doesn’t really produce lake effect by the time you get to late Jan through March the lake is either frozen over or not big enough delta T’s for good lake effect or winds are WNW/NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 22 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: This times 100. Give me a good early season from Mid Nov to New Years. Then slowly wave away from there. We get our best lake snow in November and December anyways. If we get quick shallow cold shots in Nov and Dec that doesn’t really produce lake effect by the time you get to late Jan through March the lake is either frozen over or not big enough delta T’s for good lake effect or winds are WNW/NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 32 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 05-06 and 11-12 say hold my beer...i wish it was uniform cold across the board so I could feel a bit more comfortable in your research data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: 05-06 and 11-12 say hold my beer...i wish it was uniform cold across the board so I could feel a bit more comfortable in your research data In fact what scares me most is the two outliers are from the most recent weak periods for La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 As mentioned last week, I was skeptical of any "cool downs" that are in the forecast. As Thinksnow mentioned, that WAR has been soooooo stubborn the past few years. Now we're looking at mid 80s...again...in the extended. April is the only "almost" guaranteed below normal month of the year anymore. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 I would LOVE to have winter like this (Feb 2015) for entire winter (Nov 2020 to May 2021) Any chance it will happen this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: In fact what scares me most is the two outliers are from the most recent weak periods for La Nina The only years that are uniform for a specific type of Enso are strong Ninos. They are virtually all warm all winter long. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 3, 2020 Author Share Posted September 3, 2020 First flake history for Buffalo and Rochester EARLIEST EVER First Flake Sep 20, 1956 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: First flake history for Buffalo and Rochester EARLIEST EVER First Flake Sep 20, 1956 What could have possibly happened to make that take place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 3, 2020 Author Share Posted September 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: What could have possibly happened to make that take place? Cold air and moisture. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 The average high for that date is 70.1 degrees and the low is 50.9 that's crazy!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 3, 2020 Author Share Posted September 3, 2020 Maybe Hurricane Flossy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 3, 2020 Author Share Posted September 3, 2020 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: The average high for that date is 70.1 degrees and the low is 50.9 that's crazy!!! What happened in May of this year was even crazier as the snow accumulated. Not just a flake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Maybe Hurricane Flossy? Yeah that definitely could've pulled down enough cold air if it was close by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 3, 2020 Author Share Posted September 3, 2020 Analogs just based on ENSO from NE forum 2017-2018 (weak Nina) 2016-2017 (weak Nina) 2013-2014 (cold neutral) 2008-2009 (weak Nina) 2005-2006 (weak Nina) 2000-2001 (weak Nina) 1996-1997 (cold neutral) 1995-1996 (weak Nina) 1985-1986 (cold neutral) 1983-1984 (weak Nina) 1974-1975 (weak Nina) 1971-1972 (weak Nina) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Thought that line of showers was gonna dud out over the lake. POW! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 29 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Thought that line of showers was gonna dud out over the lake. POW! Pretty good squall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 So I have an observation...ive noticed the past week that each morning the temp at the NWS KBUF site is 6 to 7 degrees warmer than surrounding sites...i see it every morning on WIVB and this morning was no different. All the northern area sites were low to mid 50's and KBUF is at 64...is the instrument off? I live 3 miles and change from the NWS and I find it hard to believe as my backyard is sitting at 56.8 and 3 miles away it's 64? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: So I have an observation...ive noticed the past week that each morning the temp at the NWS KBUF site is 6 to 7 degrees warmer than surrounding sites...i see it every morning on WIVB and this morning was no different. All the northern area sites were low to mid 50's and KBUF is at 64...is the instrument off? I live 3 miles and change from the NWS and I find it hard to believe as my backyard is sitting at 56.8 and 3 miles away it's 64? I’ve noticed the same all summer! Especially late evenings/early night. Temp at BUF has consistently been 4-6 deg warmer than nearby locations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: So I have an observation...ive noticed the past week that each morning the temp at the NWS KBUF site is 6 to 7 degrees warmer than surrounding sites...i see it every morning on WIVB and this morning was no different. All the northern area sites were low to mid 50's and KBUF is at 64...is the instrument off? I live 3 miles and change from the NWS and I find it hard to believe as my backyard is sitting at 56.8 and 3 miles away it's 64? UHI effect? Idk where the station is located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Who's ready for some 40s tonight? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 4, 2020 Author Share Posted September 4, 2020 Next week looks nice low-mid 80s and sun for first part of it. Last year I didn't close the pool until Mid October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 44 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: UHI effect? Idk where the station is located. It's actually in the 1st ring suburb of Cheektowaga literally 1/2 mile from 2nd ring suburb Williamsville...its right on the buffalo niagara international airport grgrounds...lots of vegetation around...thats why I'm a bit surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 I’m in Laramie Wyoming until Tuesday. Models are showing 10-14” of snow here Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. Will have to post some pics for sure regardless of how much we get! Will be the earliest snowstorm I have ever experienced. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 4, 2020 Author Share Posted September 4, 2020 20 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: I’m in Laramie Wyoming until Tuesday. Models are showing 10-14” of snow here Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. Will have to post some pics for sure regardless of how much we get! Will be the earliest snowstorm I have ever experienced. Are you there for work or vacation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 41 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Are you there for work or vacation? Visiting family. My girls dad lives in Laramie. Awesome awesome place to visit and am considering moving here once my sons adoption goes through (could be a year or more still). Elevation in the town and his house 8 miles north is 7200 feet but just West (20 mi) is the Snowy mountains which we went up yesterday to 12,000 feet. Just East (less than 10 miles) is the Laramie Mountains and Vedauwoo Which is over 9000 feet and has absolutely awesome rock features. The mountains out here blow any of the mountains out east out of the water. We only went up to Mirror Lake which is at 10,800 feet or so but there was still plenty of snow left up there and you could feel how much thinner the air is up there. There are so many things to do here with camping in Medicine Bow National Forest, 4 wheeling through the mountains, and great fishing on the reservoir and Alpine lakes at nearly 10,000 feet. Throw in no state income tax and my father in laws $300,000 house only pays $1400 a year in taxes how could you not want to live here? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 5 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: So I have an observation...ive noticed the past week that each morning the temp at the NWS KBUF site is 6 to 7 degrees warmer than surrounding sites...i see it every morning on WIVB and this morning was no different. All the northern area sites were low to mid 50's and KBUF is at 64...is the instrument off? I live 3 miles and change from the NWS and I find it hard to believe as my backyard is sitting at 56.8 and 3 miles away it's 64? Riding a motorcycle it’s extremely noticeable. I live near main and random and when heading towards transit in the morning you hit a wall of warmth. I’ve always wondered how much urbanization is contributing to global warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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