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Upstate/Eastern New York

BuffaloWeather
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BuffaloWeather
BuffaloWeather

So its pretty funny. Not sure if I told anyone this or not. But my next door neighbor is a photographer and storm chaser. She chases tornadoes all over the midwest. It was destiny to move next door to

BuffaloWeather
BuffaloWeather

Just got back from another trip to the Adirondacks. We hiked up Whiteface and Esther. Whiteface drive up was closed due to construction and covid, so we had the entire peak to ourselves. A very rare o

DeltaT13
DeltaT13

The average high for Rochester is 81 degrees this time of year and is already declining.  Therefore anything above that is above normal, I know math is hard for dimwit trolls like yourself, but you ca

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wolfie09

wolfie09

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LauraUpdate_1.jpg

Hurricane Laura forecast to be Category 4 storm as Texas, Louisiana brace for landfall

An intensifying Hurricane Laura is growing stronger by the hour Wednesday over the Gulf of Mexico as forecasters warn the powerful system will be a "catastrophic” Category 4 storm before it makes landfall along the Gulf Coast.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami said Wednesday morning that Laura, now a major hurricane, is forecast to "rapidly strengthen" throughout the day, bringing life-threatening storm surge, extreme winds, and flash flooding over eastern Texas and Louisiana.

As of 8 a.m. EDT, the storm is located about 280 miles south-southeast of Lake Charles, La., moving northwest at 15 mph with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph.

Laura is now a dangerous Category 3 hurricane that continues to intensify in the Gulf of Mexico.

Satellite images show that Laura has become “a formidable hurricane" in recent hours, threatening to smash homes and sink entire communities.

 

Laura has undergone a remarkable intensification, growing nearly 70 percent in power in just 24 hours “and there are no signs it will stop soon," the NHC said in a briefing early Wednesday.

The 8 a.m. advisory from the NHC has Laura becoming a Category 4 storm before making landfall overnight.

Category 4 storms bring "catastrophic damage," with well-built framed homes at risk of losing most of the roof structure and exterior walls.

"Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas," the NHC states on an overview of damage from similar-sized storms. "Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months."

Laura is becoming a large hurricane as it strengthens by the hour, with hurricane-force winds extending 70 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward of up to 175 miles.

Laura is forecast to make landfall as a major hurricane with winds upwards of 115 mph on the border between Texas and Louisiana early Thursday morning, but conditions are going to go downhill through the day on Wednesday.

 

Impacts and hazards from the storm will be widespread – not just where the center of the storm makes landfall.
 
A life-threatening storm surge of 7 to 15 feet will inundate the coast just east of the trajectory. A storm surge warning is in effect from Freeport, Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River.

According to the NHC, the worst of the storm surge will be along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by "large and destructive waves."

"This storm surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas," forecasters said.

Hurricane-force winds for several hours will cause damage to homes, businesses, and trees.  Power outages are also expected.

 

A hurricane warning is in effect from San Luis Pass, Texas to Intracoastal City in Louisiana

Flooding will also be widespread from the hurricane. Anywhere between 5 to 10 inches of rain is expected,  with isolated totals of 12-15 inches which will cause dangerous conditions along the coast and well inland.

Landfalling tropical systems can spawn tornadoes, and that will be expected over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley from Wednesday night into Thursday morning

 

The storm has forced the evacuation of more than half a million people along the Gulf Coast.

More than 385,000 residents were told to flee the Texas cities of Beaumont, Galveston, and Port Arthur, and another 200,000 were ordered to leave low-lying Calcasieu Parish in southwestern Louisiana, where forecasters said as much as 13 feet of storm surge topped by waves could submerge whole communities.

"If you decide to stay, you’re staying on your own,” Port Arthur Mayor Thurman Bartie said.

Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards said Laura is shaping up to look a lot like Hurricane Rita did 15 years ago when it ravaged southwest Louisiana.

 

“We’re going to have significant flooding in places that don’t normally see it,” he said.

Fearing that people would not evacuate in time, Edwards said those in southwest Louisiana need to be where they intend to ride out Laura by noon Wednesday, when the state will start feeling the storm's effects.

Officials urged people to stay with relatives or in hotel rooms to avoid spreading coronavirus. Buses were stocked with protective equipment and disinfectant, and they would carry fewer passengers to keep people apart, Texas officials said.

 

Laura passed Cuba after killing nearly two dozen people on the island of Hispaniola, including 20 in Haiti and three in the Dominican Republic, where it knocked out power and caused intense flooding.

The deaths reportedly included a 10-year-old girl whose home was hit by a tree and a mother and young son crushed by a collapsing wall.
Laura's arrival comes just days before the Aug. 29 anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, which breached the levees in New Orleans, flattened much of the Mississippi coast, and killed as many as 1,800 people in 2005. Less than a month later, Hurricane Rita struck southwest Louisiana as a Category 3 storm.
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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

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16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Has potential to hit 5 before landfall, but think it falls just short. 

I was just going to post I have TWC on and Cantore is speaking with the Gov of LA right now and he tipped his hand that he just spoke with the NHC and NWS and the next advisory will be quite a bit more intensity than was forecast.

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

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Already lots of flooding inland in southern LA and the storm is still 12 hours or so from landfall...and to make matters worse the highest tide of the entire month is scheduled for right around landfall at 1am. As for our situation I think the worst will spare the buffalo Metro area and we could see several spin-ups tomorrow east of here. A truly wild weather week for sure!!!

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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35 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Already lots of flooding inland in southern LA and the storm is still 12 hours or so from landfall...and to make matters worse the highest tide of the entire month is scheduled for right around landfall at 1am. As for our situation I think the worst will spare the buffalo Metro area and we could see several spin-ups tomorrow east of here. A truly wild weather week for sure!!!

I expect surge in the 20-30' range and inland up to 30 miles. Pretty incredible stuff. Luckily it's not too populated. 

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

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24 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I expect surge in the 20-30' range and inland up to 30 miles. Pretty incredible stuff. Luckily it's not too populated. 

That's an awful lot of gators and snakes that are going to be washed into the residential areas from the swamps and bayous...billy the exterminator is going to be awfully busy...

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

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3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

140mph...whether Laura gets to 156 is no matter at this point...there is significant flooding all along the coast from the storm surge as we speak...winds will only exasperate this issue.

145 now, forecast to make landfall at 150 now. Only a few mph short of Cat 5. As you said won’t make a difference. Many will likely see 20+ foot surges and devastating winds. Likely not enough time for an ERC to negatively effect this as were only about 8 hours from landfall and there’s no signs of an ERC taking place yet and if anything is still looks to be slowly intensifying. Should be one of the strongest hurricanes to ever hit the Gulf if it hits at 150mph or higher. This just 2 years after Michael. Unreal. 

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

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Yikes! This is just one of many reasons I would not live in the deep south. When you look at the many different types of intense weather and natural elements other areas of the country/world deal with, we really are blessed to live in a place with a temperate climate and meteorological balance. Lake effect snow is fascinating and others may have the perspective that it's a "horrible things to deal with", but in reality it is fairly minute in comparison to some of these other phenomena in terms of damage, destruction, and suffering. 

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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

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Couple Live Stream Links if anyone is watching tonight.   Looks like it’s going to start going downhill fast!

  

* Until 100 AM CDT.

* At 1053 PM CDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
  extreme winds, associated with the eyewall of Hurricane Laura,
  were moving onshore along a line extending from 15 miles south of
  Sabine Pass to 6 miles southwest of Creole to 7 miles south of
  Freshwater City, moving north at 25 mph. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY
  DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION!

* Locations impacted include...
  Beaumont, Lake Charles, Port Arthur, Sulphur, Orange, Nederland,
  Groves, Port Neches, Lumberton and Vidor.

Reed is driving around St Charles

 

Group camped out upper level of a parking garage in downtown St Charles.  

 

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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

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28 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I wonder how long Jim Cantore and Steph will stay live on TWC....Everybody told to leave....TWC sends people. lol

TWC people are tucked away safe.  Need to watch the Live Feed Chasers.  Reed is out deploying  a sub sonic sensor for the northern eye wall intercept.  
 

Don’t think you can get a more text book look.  The inflow to the eye is just ripping.  

 

 

B0742419-D3C2-4A19-AAED-89C12BE7637D.gif

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

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Yeah, I was just watching the video with Timmer.

Indeed..."Beautiful" circulation. I'm trying to picture the kind of storm surge they're about to deal with there....It's incredible to think of something like Lake Ontario spilling water the WHOLE way to here in the north burbs of Syracuse. I really hope most people were able to get out of there and to safety.

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